Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[Dartolution]

@Allen Hey Allen, which data tool was used to generate the above? Can you provide a link?
Thanks

[Allen]

1 minute ago, Dartolution said:

@Allen Hey Allen, which data tool was used to generate the above? Can you provide a link?
Thanks

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate

Click location nearest on main map ->  Click closest station -> Check "Monthly Summarized Data" -> Check variable "Min Temp" -> pick dates

[PaPalmTrees]

41 minutes ago, Allen said:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate

Click location nearest on main map ->  Click closest station -> Check "Monthly Summarized Data" -> Check variable "Min Temp" -> pick dates

One of my favorite things to do is look at different places weather data lol.

[Mazat]

14 hours ago, amh said:

Montagnacht sieht für mich etwas beängstigend aus, die Temperatur soll bei -2 °C liegen, aber es wird windstill und wolkenlos sein und der Taupunkt liegt bei knapp über -10 °C. Ich hatte diesen Winter schon Temperaturen unter -4 °C, also mache ich mir keine allzu großen Sorgen.

amh: i also have great respect for this type of night and am always happy when it doesn't happen too often in winter.

[Mazat]

12 hours ago, Edendell Park said:

The new zoning just moved us to 8a from 7b. Our averages may barely get us into 8a, but our lows these past 4 years have been -5,13,1,2... And we have such variable climate with occasional frosts in early October,  occasionally even early April. We have microclimates thanks to the hills and valleys... Am trying to terrace with rock walls to enhance microclimates around our property.

Welcome
it occurred to me that it might be useful, speaking from my own experience with trachycarpus fortunei, to add humus substrate with the addition of sand, loam, coarse-grained perlite and garden soil to the current soil. I once had a less deep substrate with some stones in the soil and trachycarpus fortunei really struggled with it. the location was sunny, we had enough rainfall, but the substrate was simply not ideal and not deep enough, which we realized when we moved to the current location even though we planted directly in the soil.

 

[Mazat]

50 minutes ago, PaPalmTrees said:

One of my favorite things to do is look at different places weather data lol.

it's fun and exciting to see the different locations and their climate and weather.

[Las Palmas Norte]

51 minutes ago, PaPalmTrees said:

One of my favorite things to do is look at different places weather data lol.

Hahaha. I on the other hand, I despise charts, graphs. statistical data sheets etc. I can't devote any/zero time to them.

[kinzyjr]

To follow up on @Allen's post, it's worthwhile to know your area's Weather Forecast Office (WFO) identifier.  You can find your local office and its identifier at the links below:

• https://training.weather.gov/nwstc/sysinfo/sites.html
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Weather_Service_Weather_Forecast_Offices

The attached spreadsheet contains the WFO information and can be sorted and filtered for ease of use.

If you know your WFO, you can modify the following URL to check NOW data for your area:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tbw

The WFO for my area is the Tampa office from the link above.  If I wanted to check for NOW data for Hot Springs, AR like Allen did for @Edendell Park, the first piece of information you would want is the WFO ID for that region of the country.  In some cases, it might be in another state.  A good example is Pensacola, FL, which is in the coverage area of the WFO in Mobile, AL.  Using the lookup Allen did as a real-world example, when you check the site or spreadsheet for WFOs in Arkansas, there is only one - in Little Rock with the ID of LZK:

The URL for the Tampa office can be modified using the ID for the WFO of your choice:

Tampa URL:

Modified URL for the WFO in Little Rock, AR:

 

Pick your location, select Monthly summarized data, set your year range to an appropriate length of time (this station's first records were in 1887), set the variable to Min temp and the summary to Daily Minimum.  Click Go.

You can sort the output however you like.  In this case, it is sorted by year in descending order.

Hope this tutorial is beneficial.  If anyone in Florida is reading this, CFPACS keeps links to each of the WFOs servicing Florida in the publications section of their website:

https://cfpacs.com/org/palmateer/

20250105_WFO.xlsx

[Mazat]

6 minutes ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

Hahaha. I on the other hand, I despise charts, graphs. statistical data sheets etc. I can't devote any/zero time to them.

I know someone who sees it exactly the same way as you and does without it, oops she's just calling 😁

[Las Palmas Norte]

On 1/3/2025 at 11:09 AM, 3 Milesfrom Gulf of Mexico said:

... It is over 20 feet tall and fruiting.  No way to protect it from the cold.  I do wrap the trunk if we go below 40F with a blanket and spot light.   The crown is fully exposed to the cold. ...

That statement seems confusing to me. For some reason, I'm unable to visualize wrapping a banket (how large is it?) on a 20' coconut palm & not protecting the most cold sensitive part of it. What am I missing?

[PaPalmTrees]

27 minutes ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

Hahaha. I on the other hand, I despise charts, graphs. statistical data sheets etc. I can't devote any/zero time to them.

LOL.

[PaPalmTrees]

33 minutes ago, Mazat said:

it's fun and exciting to see the different locations and their climate and weather.

Yes it its..

[Swolte]

And the  cold air is arriving!

Well, not much of a polar vortex in Texas but I still wrapped a few things. Mostly young Trachies, newly planted stuff, and some precious palms I simply want to give the best chance of growing this year. 
😁

 

[N8ALLRIGHT]

Yep we're ready. Got my trachy and needle under the trash cans. Both are wearing frost cloths. Both have the frost king pipe cables. Trachy also has 100 mini lights on a thermocube. Also a minor and a yucca schotti are under leaves topped with snow. It's been a very mild winter up til now. Next couple nights are supposed to bottom out at 0 to -5.  1/4" of ice followed by 6 to 12" of snow ,at least the snow will help insulate everything. Probably not going to work tomorrow either ( it ain't all bad )

[Ben G.]

18 hours ago, Edendell Park said:

Do you know of anyone trying to grow palms in the Ouachita region of Oklahoma/Arkansas? I live about an hour west of Hot Springs. Three bad winters in the last 4 years took out most of the trunking windmills there.  I don't see any palms in Mena, but have not been through every neighborhood.  I think Mena tends to be a cold micro climate.

We have an RV campground and AirBnB in Oden, AR.  We have a few small palms that have survived 2 winters of 1-2 degrees with leaf mulching... Small windmills, a pindo, and a sago (accidentally left out). 

Would like to hear from others in this region trying to grow palms and other "semi-hardy" tropicals.

Unfortunately, I don't know anyone else in the Ouachita region growing palms or subtropicals these days. I never lived in that region, though I lived in the Ozarks for a while and a couple of years in the Arkansas River valley in Ft. Smith.  

When I lived in Ft. Smith, it was an interesting little warm spot that seemed to always stay a few degrees warmer than surrounding areas during the winter. The last decade has been rough for zone pushing gardeners in that whole area though. I lived on a 5 acre property near the North end of Lake Tenkiller from 2016 until spring of 2024. While the newest zone maps would tell you that area is 7b, we dropped below 0F in six of my eight winters there. 

I lost multiple small to medium (up to about 3ft of trunk) trachycarpus during my time there. I had some even survive the -14F event in 2021, only to die the next winter when we went below 0F yet again. I lost some less established needle palms while others survived. I also lost a Birmingham sabal that was starting to trunk, while another Birmingham and a palmetto with better siting survived.

Given your location, I would focus creating a good backbone for your landscape with sabal minor, needle palms, and other stuff like musa basjoo. Depending on how much time and energy you can spare to protect things, you could then experiment with some trachycarpus if you want. I felt the issue I ran into with trachycarpus in Oklahoma was that we had too many bad winters in a row, while the summers are hotter than trachycarpus like as well. A cold winter followed by a hot summer meant that the palms would pause their growth until fall. They weren't recovering enough between the bad winter events.

If I were in your location, I would definitely try a couple of trachycarpus somewhere in my yard. I just wouldn't want to deal with protecting more than that if a colder than average winter came along. I might try a hybrid Washingtonia as well. I got some of those to survive some Oklahoma winters by covering them, but not providing supplemental heat. Their advantage over trachycarpus is that they will grow very quickly during the hot summer.

[Robbertico18]

Forecast not looking too bad here 

lowest temp right at 30, if that’s as cold as it gets this winter I’d be soooo happy 

[amh]

7 hours ago, Mazat said:

amh: i also have great respect for this type of night and am always happy when it doesn't happen too often in winter.

Unfortunately it is common where I live, I'm just hoping to stay above 15F.

[amh]

So, who here is ready for the ice storm midweek? 

[Allen]

This is the best Polar Vortex thread ever!!!  My low is forecast for 16 or 20F depending on where you look.  

[Xenon]

The hysteria in the local gardening groups is ridiculous, I've given up trying to be voice of reason. There are people wrapping up Butia and Washingtonia with lights and all for a 30-32 degree freeze. People wrapping up queens and citrus trees like this is some kind of earth shattering freeze. Even the "professionals" seem to be caught up in the hysteria....seems completely unnecessary to pine straw the caudexes of these cyacds (looks like some kind of hardy Dioon spp. and one of the multipinnate Cycas sp.) for what is barely a freeze. Wrapping the pomegranate? Seriously why oh why 😅

Facepalm all around

[Swolte]

LOL, yes, I saw that post too and had the same reaction! Even made me double check... did I miss anything?!

I do blame the pros somewhat* but you can hardly blame the less informed people (the normals). My wife was even asking when I was wrapping the pipes and to call some of our tenants to do the same... 😒 (she does trust me on weather so my refusal was taken well). This thing has been hyped up and the past years have been pretty traumatic for Texas. 

* In their defense, they do have to organize any concerted protection efforts in advance when the weather could have still taken a turn for the worse!

Edited January 6 by Swolte
Edit in a sentence on "In their defense... "

[fr8train]

On weather.com it's saying it'll get down to 26F here by morning, so I'm about to go outside and take my entire irrigation system apart and put my palms in the garage. It's going to be a TON of work, I have a lot of palms. I'm running on 4 hours of sleep so this isn't going to be fun.

According to google we might get snow on Thursday? That'll be interesting. It's still kinda far out though. 

[Keys6505]

Leaving the kids out for this one.  Survival of the fittest.  If they can't handle 30 they don't belong in the ranch.

[Xenon]

14 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

Leaving the kids out for this one.  Survival of the fittest.  If they can't handle 30 they don't belong in the ranch.

Now that's conviction 😄. What a gold mine in there...is that a Lanonia in the middle?

[Keys6505]

37 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Now that's conviction 😄. What a gold mine in there...is that a Lanonia in the middle?

Lanonia or Licuala..I couldnt even tell you exactly what's in there anymore.  Floribunda is a dangerous place.

[Xenon]

13 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

Lanonia or Licuala..I couldnt even tell you exactly what's in there anymore.  Floribunda is a dangerous place.

Hahaha tell me if you ever want to do a group order. I'm still bitter about losing my thriving Geonoma schottiana to construction. Could always use more Lytocaryum too 😉

[UK_Palms]

Had a dumping of snow here last night with a 0.5C / 33F minimum around midnight. These were the 02:00am temps on Saturday night. Look at Cornwall and the Scilly Isles - 13C / 55F at 2am while central London was like 2C / 35F.

The snow was actually totally melted when I woke up and I have had a max of 13C / 55F on Sunday. I had a 7C leap within a hour or two from like 4C / 40F at 6am up to about 11C / 52F at 8am.

22:00pm - 0.5C / 33F

10:00am - 12.4C / 54F (12 hours later).

 

It looks like the most January snow for central and eastern London in 4 years! Maybe 1/4 of a centimetre there. Or 1/8th.

While we have had a temporary mild interlude on Sunday down south, it is still freezing up north and in Scotland. Some places not rising above -6C or -7C today. More cold, freezing weather is coming as well. Another mini vortex is dropping down in the week ahead.

 

I have had rain all day long and my garden is suffering some of the worst flooding I have ever seen. Got a few nights of frost forecast this coming week as well, so all this moisture will re-freeze again. Some garden beds that have never flooded before were under half a foot of water earlier today!

I need spring to just get here now.

 

[Ben G.]

15 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Had a dumping of snow here last night with a 0.5C / 33F minimum around midnight. These were the 02:00am temps on Saturday night. Look at Cornwall and the Scilly Isles - 13C / 55F at 2am while central London was like 2C / 35F.

The snow was actually totally melted when I woke up and I have had a max of 13C / 55F on Sunday. I had a 7C leap within a hour or two from like 4C / 40F at 6am up to about 11C / 52F at 8am.

22:00pm - 0.5C / 33F

10:00am - 12.4C / 54F (12 hours later).

 

It looks like the most January snow for central and eastern London in 4 years! Maybe 1/4 of a centimetre there. Or 1/8th.

While we have had a temporary mild interlude on Sunday down south, it is still freezing up north and in Scotland. Some places not rising above -6C or -7C today. More cold, freezing weather is coming as well. Another mini vortex is dropping down in the week ahead.

 

I have had rain all day long and my garden is suffering some of the worst flooding I have ever seen. Got a few nights of frost forecast this coming week as well, so all this moisture will re-freeze again. Some garden beds that have never flooded before were under half a foot of water earlier today!

I need spring to just get here now.

 

Yikes. While I don't generally associate Scotland with nice weather anyway, that's a particularly rough day for the Scots! 

[PaPalmTrees]

Here are my palms in snow, The snow started a couple hours ago

 

[Subtropical LIS]

12 hours ago, Xenon said:

The hysteria in the local gardening groups is ridiculous, I've given up trying to be voice of reason. There are people wrapping up Butia and Washingtonia with lights and all for a 30-32 degree freeze. People wrapping up queens and citrus trees like this is some kind of earth shattering freeze. Even the "professionals" seem to be caught up in the hysteria....seems completely unnecessary to pine straw the caudexes of these cyacds (looks like some kind of hardy Dioon spp. and one of the multipinnate Cycas sp.) for what is barely a freeze. Wrapping the pomegranate? Seriously why oh why 😅

Facepalm all around

What is so hilarious...is that up to today, in several areas, average highs/lows are not too far from normal.

Yesterdays highs, for the most part, were not too far off normal for early/mid January. In fact, some parts of the Gulf Coast were a bit above normal. From AR to North Carolina highs were in the 50's F.. There was a band of below normal lows (in the 20's F) from the Carolina's/GA and parts of north Texas, but highs in the those regions yesterday were close to normal.

Here in Florida highs were in the 70's F and 60's south to north (close to normal)...while lows in the north/central Florida area were from  mid 30's - to low 40's F (about 10 F  below normal ) to mid 50's F in South Florida (close to normal). There were low 60's F in the Keys, still close to normal).

The core of the cold looks to be Tues, AM so it will be interesting to see if/how much temps fall.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Xenon]

Bottomed out at 30F in West Houston/Katy on I-10 exactly as local NWS predicted. No ice or frost. 

28F N/NW Houston, 30F at both major airports/most of the City of Houston, 32F in southeast Houston, 33F in Texas City, 34F in San Leon bayside and Galveston. 

[DTS]

My forecast says my high temperatures aren't getting above freezing for quite a while.. Every day will be in the high 20s and teens at night. At least it's sunny-

[JeskiM]

14 hours ago, amh said:

So, who here is ready for the ice storm midweek? 

I plan to cover up everything left that I haven't covered for the possible ice storm.  This cold we have right now is a dry cold, with wind, and sunny skies, coupled with the fact that the ground right before this is/was warm so wind and warm ground should have helped with the things I didn't cover by keeping the air mixed and moving. 

I'd rather keep ice out of the crowns, so I will cover up for that despite the air temp will be higher by then.

I am right in the area where it could be all rain vs winter precip.  My guess is that I end up getting everything, starting as rain, then ice then snow.   I'd prefer either all rain or all snow .... we shall see.

-Matt

[Arecaceus]

It's blowing out there! Had a nice mild day with 15°C and even some sunny bits. Some stations even reached 18°C but now it's very stormy. Already had 100 km/h wind gusts in my area. The temperature is going down again tomorrow. Cold but not worrying. Towards the weekend I might get some frost but it's still uncertain how cold it will really get. So far still no real polar vortex.

[JeskiM]

The last 24 hours at my house:

 

9:45 AM yesterday -->  Light rain, 69 F

11:45 AM yesterday -->  Cold front arrives, wind switched to North, clouds cleared out 71 F

Midnight --> Clear skies, winds 15 gusting to 25 mph.  32 F

7:00 AM today --> Clear skies, winds 15 gusting to 25 mph.  26 F

9:45 AM today --> Clear skies, winds 15 gusting to 25 mph.  31 F

That's approximately 10 Hrs at or below freezing. ... not too bad considering that the first model forecasts I was seeing about 10 days out had me at 14 F.

-Matt

[JeskiM]

Ultimately that cold front only dropped temps 40 F in a 24 hour period.  Stronger fronts around here can push 50 to 60 F drops in 24 hours. 

Strongest officially documented front that I know of in the lower 48 states was a 100 degree drop and that was seen in Browning Montana. On January 23rd 1916 it went from +44 to -56 F.

As for Austin TX the coldest officially documented temperature is -1 F.  However, a few years before official recording took place there was a unofficial recorded temperature of -6 F.

It's likely that in the few hundred years before that (the Little Ice Age) that Austin has seen colder temperatures and that has support based on recorded interviews of Native American Indians from this area.   

So, things could always be worse.

For our friends from England, that area saw extreme winters in the past, especially during the Little Ice Age through the 1600 and 1800s.   

In human history, that wasn't that long ago. For vegetation it was an even less so.

Stay warm everyone.

-Matt

[strongbad635]

When I woke up this morning it was 31f at my home in Houston's East End.  So barely a freeze, and still clinging to a z10a winter!

[Subtropical LIS]

Already some of the models are now showing strong southwest flow for much of the Gulf south and lower East Coast in the 10 - 12 day period.  Some highs into 80's F are possible in parts of Texas and Florida: 

 

[JeskiM]

The weather is fixing to get interesting just beyond that 10-14 day period as the High Pressure ridge straddling the west coast will likely be breaking down. More cold air will be pooling up in NW Canada, etc and if the ridge can break down then it may be easier to get some colder air down further to the west.   Basically, the pattern is looking to flip again where the west could get wet/stormy, and the east could dry out and warm up.

The last part of Jan early Feb could be a wild wide for the southern plains and I wouldn't be surprised to see another, even stronger cold snap then.

-Matt

[Silas_Sancona]

5 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

The weather is fixing to get interesting just beyond that 10-14 day period as the High Pressure ridge straddling the west coast will likely be breaking down. More cold air will be pooling up in NW Canada, etc and if the ridge can break down then it may be easier to get some colder air down further to the west.   Basically, the pattern is looking to flip again where the west could get wet/stormy, and the east could dry out and warm up.

The last part of Jan early Feb could be a wild wide for the southern plains and I wouldn't be surprised to see another, even stronger cold snap then.

-Matt

Ha ha ..I had a feeling you were going to bring that up.   Cooler, ...err, roughly seasonal  ...for about a week or two? yes, definitely possible.  COLD? no ..Not at all... 

Rain? ..Not really in the cards ..though perhaps the dry streak ..here and in S. Cal, comes to an end over the next couple weeks.. Sprinkles to maybe an  inch ( in S. CAl, if really enthusiastic Total Precip guidance thru the end of the month is correct ) =  Certainly nothing significant though.

Beyond that? Cool spell will likely be short lived.

Overall,  ..Absolutely nothing atypical for the " dead of winter " month of Jan. in this part of the world..  Certainly nothing to freak out about -Here at least.   We don't do that..