Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

January 6

29 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Ha ha ..I had a feeling you were going to bring that up. Cooler, ...err, roughly seasonal ...for about a week or two? yes, definitely possible. COLD? no ..Not at all...

Rain? ..Not really in the cards ..though perhaps the dry streak ..here and in S. Cal, comes to an end over the next couple weeks.. Sprinkles to maybe an inch ( in S. CAl, if really enthusiastic Total Precip guidance thru the end of the month is correct ) = Certainly nothing significant though.

Beyond that? Cool spell will likely be short lived.

Overall, ..Absolutely nothing atypical for the " dead of winter " month of Jan. in this part of the world.. Certainly nothing to freak out about -Here at least. We don't do that..

Hehe, I am not freaking out, nor trying to freak anyone out ... Hopefully I didn't come across as that.

I do think that sometimes people, including myself, sometimes forget that there is this thing called winter, and it brings the real risk of storms and cold.

Anyways, yes, I think the pattern is about to flip and the SW should finally get a "break" from the warmth they have been seeing and get some meaningful precipitation, while those east of the Continental Divide still have the 2nd half of the winter, where in TX it could be the reverse of what we saw in the 1st half of Winter (Warm) (and Dry from Cen TX westward).

-Matt

January 6

30F at my place. Absolutely terrifying🙃

This is why people get freaked out. Someone should be fired for writing this.

January 6

17 hours ago, fr8train said:

On weather.com it's saying it'll get down to 26F here by morning, so I'm about to go outside and take my entire irrigation system apart and put my palms in the garage. It's going to be a TON of work, I have a lot of palms. I'm running on 4 hours of sleep so this isn't going to be fun.

According to google we might get snow on Thursday? That'll be interesting. It's still kinda far out though.

I finally got everything in around 2 am. Maybe it was overkill, but I didn't want to chance it. Tonight it's supposed to get down to 25F again.

Most of these palms I've grown from seed starting around 2007 or 2008. They've been with me in Illinois, Ohio, and Wyoming. They've exploded in growth since I've moved to Texas.

January 6

Were suppose to be having a low of 31 degrees tomorrow morning. Which is barely below freezing? What do yall consider a long freeze? Were only suppose to be 31 degrees for a bit under 3hours. I don’t plan to cover anything.

January 6

3 minutes ago, fr8train said:

Gegen 2 Uhr morgens hatte ich endlich alles fertig. Vielleicht war es übertrieben, aber ich wollte es nicht riskieren. Die meisten dieser Palmen habe ich ab 2007 oder 2008 aus Samen gezogen. Ich habe sie in Illinois, Ohio und Wyoming begleitet. Seit ich nach Texas gezogen bin, sind sie explosionsartig gewachsen.

fr8train: good work. safe is safe. as long as you can do it like this, it's better than taking a risk. do it exactly like this, otherwise it just hurts and then the thoughts of who i would have done it come up again ...

January 6

20 minutes ago, Chester B said:

30F at my place. Absolutely terrifying🙃

This is why people get freaked out. Someone should be fired for writing this.

i understand it. then we have also here the problem who makes this "difficult" job ...

January 6

5 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

Hehe, I am not freaking out, nor trying to freak anyone out ... Hopefully I didn't come across as that.

I do think that sometimes people, including myself, sometimes forget that there is this thing called winter, and it brings the real risk of storms and cold.

Anyways, yes, I think the pattern is about to flip and the SW should finally get a "break" from the warmth they have been seeing and get some meaningful precipitation, while those east of the Continental Divide still have the 2nd half of the winter, where in TX it could be the reverse of what we saw in the 1st half of Winter (Warm) (and Dry from Cen TX westward).

-Matt

No " meaningful " precip in the cards, despite any overly enthusiastic thoughts spat out by various model runs at times lately ..not for here, or west of here.. Which is fine..

2 weeks / 3 maybe.. ~ though that is probably pushing it ~ of " closer to seasonal / maybe a couple days just below that, ...with -maybe- a couple mornings in the lower 30s / odd upper 20 reading or 2 in a cold pocket suburb wayy out in the desert possible " type of pattern for the dead of winter? = perfect outcome.

Hopefully this tiny taste of " winter " will finally silence those folks whining about 70s and the occasional low 80s being " too hot " ....At least until they return in Feb. ..when i'm sure the whining will resume, lol. :greenthumb:

January 6

38 minutes ago, Victor likes palms said:

Were suppose to be having a low of 31 degrees tomorrow morning. Which is barely below freezing? What do yall consider a long freeze? Were only suppose to be 31 degrees for a bit under 3hours. I don’t plan to cover anything.

I didn't cover anything. I was below freezing for maybe 5 hours. Tonight will be similar, after that the warmth slowly returns.

January 6

Meteorologists are always in a position of having to walk the tight-rope / high wire act.

I remember one evening when I did the 10 PM weather forecast when I was on TV (1990s) in St. Joseph MO and it was a borderline case where the viewing area was either going to get snow (1 inch or so) or nothing based on the timing of a cold front, moisture, dynamics, etc. I thought that the precip. would stay to our east and just miss us. I did mention (verbally) that we could see some snow, but my forecast was for Partly Cloudy skies with a 30% of snow. (that's what was on the little graphic that the audience last saw on TV). In the end I was off by about 70 miles and we got an inch or two in the area. The next day I was in the grocery store and an irate viewer recognized me and got all over me about how I should come to his house and "scrape 3 inches of partly cloudy off his driveway". Lol, I chuckle about it now, but it does remind me of some realities facing meteorologists.

When I worked with people at the Severe Storms Prediction Center we would often discuss the need to properly message watches and warning around Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes. Thunderstorms in itself was challenging, especially on days where it was "Conditional". Those kind of days you knew that * IF * a storm were to initiate it could quickly become severe. So, you have this scenario where you have >90% certainty that any storms that fire will be severe however there is only a 20 - 30% chance that a storm does initiate. That's what a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is for.

However, I can recall many Watches that are issued and not a single storm initiates. Very easy to get pie on your face. It's one thing to be wrong, which they often are, but then you can't be the one / organization who gets labelled as "the boy who cried wolf". if you always "advertise" the worse case and it doesn't happen and now your audience doesn't trust you and you have lost them. Hyping up a model, etc results in the same thing.

So, it's best to communicate a worse case scenario, that may not happen, but it should be worded / communicated as such. ... a possibility, one of many.

A problem with these models, especially many days out, is they are very often wrong, but at the same time the scenario(s) that they are showing are within the realms of possible and are plausible. A forecast low of 0 F in Austin is well within climatological norms for January. However, if I see a model spit out -20F, that would be a very extreme outlier and certainly is suspect. Now throw the internet into things where anyone, scientists (with and wo agendas) professionals, amateurs, shock jocks, etc can now advertise, hype, etc and you end up with a mess. Who can you trust ? How plausible and possible is that model ? ....and you can add another 100 questions / suspects to the list.

Back to Chester's point : This is that tight-rope. Houston hasn't seen cold in a year. People forget. Some simply never pay attention to the weather reports also. However, there are people who are working and living outside (homeless) and young kids standing waiting for a school bus in what is sub-freezing wind chills (my high school aged daughter would pay no attention to "dressing warmly" advice on the coldest days but somehow wears a hooded sweatshirt on a 100 F degree day ... a different argument). It's a real, legit danger to a few in this case. The Met. has to put this in his forecast. He will not be fired. If he didn't he would likely be in more trouble. Now if he hypes it up as some Armageddon ....

@Chester B

Please understand that I am not knocking on you at all, so please don't take it that way. I actually fully understand and can appreciate what you are saying.

I remember my very first winter in Austin where I was in Colorado / Kansas for the better part of the prior 15 years. We had a cold front just like this. Near freezing temps and wind.....it was the coldest Austin saw in the past two-three years. That morning my wife and I got up, were getting ready to go to work, the local news station was going on about how cold it was and we both said, "crap, better throw on the jacket". So, we throw on the jacket, go outside to warm up the car and immediately threw the jackets off realizing that it wasn't cold at all. .... for us it wasn't cold, not at that time. Now, after 20 years here, yes it's jacket worthy (lol).

-Matt

January 6

19 hours ago, Allen said:

This is the best Polar Vortex thread ever!!! My low is forecast for 16 or 20F depending on where you look.

Complete opposite Here in PA LOL , We have had the worst ends of the polar vortexs, This year, We've already had a low of 6 and now We have a bunch more temperatures in the teens coming up Hopefully February is mild. :mellow:

January 6

Only 27F last night, but tonight will be a lot colder. My garage is full of plants, my foyer is full plants and my 110ft² tent greenhouse is full of plants. I think I might have too many palms and cycads.

January 6

It's interesting to note...that as we approach the halfway point of meterological winter (Dec 1 - Feb 28th) next week (Jan 15th)...most of the USA mainland has had above normal temps so far this winter.

ogfig8.jpg.7fd6c6eebefff1078d3534cc0f2b61db.jpg

January 6

16 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

Who can you trust ? How plausible and possible is that model ? ....and you can add another 100 questions / suspects to the list.

Trend .. that is the most trustful advise..

Take for instance ..the main topic here ..and cookie cutter P.V. threads..

Some blame the Polar Vortex cutting loose for bringing some cold weather..

While a stretch could influence things / allow for some cold air to invade, PV itself is as strong as it has been since......

We'll see of course but, should it hold, it sure looks like it is forecast to continue staying strong.. No sudden warmings / huge dips -for the time being at least-

ECMWF weeklys: Today's thoughts.. Still pretty strong

From the WX is Cool site:

Screenshot2025-01-06at13-23-21Weatheriscool.png.9e01d4de64bb620239ed8a95b135d09c.png

Screenshot2025-01-06at13-23-31Weatheriscool.png.d29e649634d0467f7ad5cadda81f8cf7.png

Tomer B's PV Page.. ( yesterday's data )

Screenshot2025-01-06at13-41-17GEFSStratosphereForecasts.png.04ab1db7a3e66048b0ff6b5279b48c63.png

...Then there is your thinking on rainfall ..for here..

ECMWF Weekly's thoughts Weekly Mean anoms. precip- trend wise, for the next 6 weeks.. As mentioned, while some wet stuff may fall, perhaps breaking some dry streaks.. likely lean outcome here going forward is nothing meaningful. Once past the 2nd week of Feb. very rare any meaningful rain occurs here as the spring dry season dawns..

..This continues to mirror thoughts via the GEFS ( Daily, 00z 840 hour runs ), ..and some others from wx models like the CFSv2, etc...

Been far more consistent than the sometimes, wildly fluctuating at times individual GFS, EPS, EC-AIFS, and ECMWF runs..

...And that is just the tip of the proverbial ice burg..

...So, .....What is believable?

Until it flips -consistently- I say ...and trust... ..Trend..

January 6

Looks like Dallas and North Texas are about to get a decent winter storm. 2-6” of snow possible

January 6

45 minutes ago, amh said:

Only 27F last night, but tonight will be a lot colder. My garage is full of plants, my foyer is full plants and my 110ft² tent greenhouse is full of plants. I think I might have too many palms and cycads.

It may not be much colder tonight. There's a shield of high level clouds moving in from the west overnight. Not sure exactly where you are located, but if we get under it I think it will only go as low as last night, but maybe for more hours below freezing.

My bigger concern is the storm coming Wednesday / Thursday. Could be an icy mess for CenTX and snowy north and west of that.

-Matt

January 6

17 hours ago, Ben G. said:

Yikes. While I don't generally associate Scotland with nice weather anyway, that's a particularly rough day for the Scots!

Northern Scotland got hammered last night. The coldest night of winter so far in the UK with -13.3C / 8F at Loch Glascarnoch in the Highlands of northern Scotland. Compared to a minimum of just 11.4C / 53F for SJP in central London. That is a difference of 24.7C between the coldest and mildest locations.

The cold weather is coming back with a vengeance however. It is seeping south as I type this. We have another 4-5 days of below average temps to come now with some more frosts.

Nothing major down south, but further up north it looks very cold. -15C / 5F is expected in parts of northern and central Scotland by the end of the week.

This is likely going to be the peak of winter in the coming days with the effects of La Niña kicking in by mid-month, which means milder, Atlantic driven air masses from the west into the UK. It will also mean milder for the eastern and central parts of the US. Of course there are no guarantee’s, but this usually happened during La Niña winters, which tend to be front loaded for cold, normally.

January 6

3 hours ago, Victor likes palms said:

Were suppose to be having a low of 31 degrees tomorrow morning. Which is barely below freezing? What do yall consider a long freeze? Were only suppose to be 31 degrees for a bit under 3hours. I don’t plan to cover anything.

I am looking at a low of 31 on Friday night which is the only potential dip below freezing so I am not doing anything to protect any of my Palms.

January 6

1 hour ago, JeskiM said:

It may not be much colder tonight. There's a shield of high level clouds moving in from the west overnight. Not sure exactly where you are located, but if we get under it I think it will only go as low as last night, but maybe for more hours below freezing.

My bigger concern is the storm coming Wednesday / Thursday. Could be an icy mess for CenTX and snowy north and west of that.

-Matt

I hope you are correct about tonight.

Yes, the possibility of freezing rain this week is worrisome and it is terrifying if you live in a forest.

January 6

44 minutes ago, Dwarf Fan said:

I am looking at a low of 31 on Friday night which is the only potential dip below freezing so I am not doing anything to protect any of my Palms.

That must be inland Corpus...NWS doesn't have you anywhere near freezing. Jealous of upper 30s

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=27.594760&lon=-97.230455

January 6

4 hours ago, fr8train said:

I finally got everything in around 2 am. Maybe it was overkill, but I didn't want to chance it. Tonight it's supposed to get down to 25F again.

Most of these palms I've grown from seed starting around 2007 or 2008. They've been with me in Illinois, Ohio, and Wyoming. They've exploded in growth since I've moved to Texas.

That looks exactly like my garage right now and for the next several days.

Took me the whole weekend to pack it full.

-Matt

January 7

Great thread.
With a Washingtonia planted spring 2024 in zone 8a, I’ve been very careful this winter. Anything below 25 degrees, I turn on the incandescent Christmas lights and zip up a large palm protection bag.

Had cold temps and snow last night. The bag was too heavy and overwhelmed the bamboo support stakes. I came out to the below photo. Several fronds were bent at 90 degree angles but not broken—I hope they will be okay.

For tonight I reinforced it with multiple bamboo stakes but might have to reconsider the soft bag. I like the idea of the “tent” on page 1 but that doesn’t look very warm.

January 7

1 hour ago, Xenon said:

That must be inland Corpus...NWS doesn't have you anywhere near freezing. Jealous of upper 30s

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=27.594760&lon=-97.230455

Thanks for reminding once again why I should always check NWS instead of Google weather on my phone. 👍

January 7

Whatever happens in the next 5 days or so...looks like temps what to get back to near normal between 16th and 21st. Cold pushed up toward the northwest...rest of mainland between 90 W and 40 north normal temps.

These would be very close to normal highs for locations from 90 W to 40 N eastward, along West Coast about 8 F below normal:

mgjgu.jpg.4a446822368ef4834ea4f0378b367c4f.jpg

January 7

1 hour ago, amh said:

I hope you are correct about tonight.

Yes, the possibility of freezing rain this week is worrisome and it is terrifying if you live in a forest.

I also live in a forest. That ice storm in 2023 event damaged my roof when one tree snapped and came down the side of the house.

Here's a picture out the garage door and up the driveway the morning after ... spent a chunk of that day just trying to get out of he driveway.

It took me a year to clean up all the mess right around the house. This past June I cleared out most of the dead branches that were left caught up in the crowns etc. There are still branches up there and they continue to fall out from time to time.

Everything on the back acre of the property was left alone to come down, decay where ever it fell.

-Matt

January 7

12 minutes ago, Subtropical LIS said:

Cold pushed up toward the northwest...rest of mainland between 90 W and 40 north normal temps.

But is it all going to dump down the following week at the absolute worst point in winter? 😭

Please winter be over 🤮

January 7

It’s not looking good for that Yorkshire Kris guy. He’s in northern England at 53.4N and quite far inland. Some of you would be familiar with him from YouTube. His CIDP is probably too big to protect now really.

This is a northerly arctic blast type event, which is most common. It affects Scotland and northern England much worse with more prolonged cold and much lower temps. The south of England doesn’t really get hit that bad. The proper cold air doesn’t really get far enough into southern England and we tap into milder incursions / interludes between each wave. Whereas northern regions can be stuck with it for weeks with little if any respite, especially in mid-winter. This is the current situation. The northern arctic air flow that is coming across right now is moderated by having to cross so much open sea and doesn’t deliver a punch outside of northern areas of the UK. Even in northern areas the air mass isn’t usually that potent. But northern areas are stuck with it for much longer with shorter days as well and they enter a prolonged freeze event.

What I fear is the easterly based ‘Beast from the East’ events that come across the continent from Siberia and the Finish/Russian arctic areas of Europe. That air is freezing and penetrates deep into Western Europe with very low minimums. It comes across the English Channel and North Sea and affects southern and central England worse than northern regions. Northwest Scotland is fairly well protected in those kind of events. That is what happened in January 1987 and February 2018. Fortunately the Easterly continental blasts are quite rare. As in once or twice a decade events for me here. But they do the most damage by far for us in southern England. It would look something like this. This is a hypothetical scenario below that has appeared on modelling (won’t happen).

January 7

my protection on the balconey,but to be honest Sabine's part is also big, but yes, there are a lot of exotics, many of them from the compost, and we got them and many as gifts, jasmine plants of various kinds, flowers, palm trees of course.... .
But it's all about protection with layers of fleece, sagex, old leaves etc.

January 7

3 minutes ago, Mazat said:

my protection on the balconey,but to be honest Sabine's part is also big, but yes, there are a lot of exotics, many of them from the compost, and we got them and many as gifts, jasmine plants of various kinds, flowers, palm trees of course.... .
But it's all about protection with layers of fleece, sagex, old leaves etc.

We are on the third floor and it's around 13 m2,

January 7

21 hours ago, JeskiM said:

Back to Chester's point : This is that tight-rope. Houston hasn't seen cold in a year. People forget. Some simply never pay attention to the weather reports also. However, there are people who are working and living outside (homeless) and young kids standing waiting for a school bus in what is sub-freezing wind chills (my high school aged daughter would pay no attention to "dressing warmly" advice on the coldest days but somehow wears a hooded sweatshirt on a 100 F degree day ... a different argument). It's a real, legit danger to a few in this case. The Met. has to put this in his forecast. He will not be fired. If he didn't he would likely be in more trouble. Now if he hypes it up as some Armageddon ....

@Chester B

Please understand that I am not knocking on you at all, so please don't take it that way. I actually fully understand and can appreciate what you are saying.

No offense taken, it's simply a discussion. I totally understand that the Weather forecasters are going to take the wrath if they miss, and definitely not a career I would want to take on. But in this instance we were talking about temps at freezing, not the 19F we saw last year. 19F for this climate is hazardous, but 32F low ( a couple hours) and 50F and sunny in the day is not what I would classify as "Dangerous". It is within the norms of winter weather here. I understand there are people who don't pay attention to the weather, but I just don't appreciate the inflammatory language.

"Tonight will be the coldest night of the winter, with lows around freezing. Be sure to dress appropriately for cold weather." That's along the lines of what I want to hear.

January 7

21F to 22F last night, lots of fun, but it is still warmer than usual, fingers crossed.

January 7

20 minutes ago, Chester B said:

No offense taken, it's simply a discussion. I totally understand that the Weather forecasters are going to take the wrath if they miss, and definitely not a career I would want to take on. But in this instance we were talking about temps at freezing, not the 19F we saw last year. 19F for this climate is hazardous, but 32F low ( a couple hours) and 50F and sunny in the day is not what I would classify as "Dangerous". It is within the norms of winter weather here. I understand there are people who don't pay attention to the weather, but I just don't appreciate the inflammatory language.

"Tonight will be the coldest night of the winter, with lows around freezing. Be sure to dress appropriately for cold weather." That's along the lines of what I want to hear.

I hear ya. The vast majority of people will not bat an eye at a temperature of 32 F for a few hours in January. Even here in the southern half of TX it's understood by all that it's going to happen from time to time. ... it's just "common sense", and nothing to get hyped up and alarmed about.

32 F in general isn't dangerous. It can be for some people like the elderly, very young, or someone who may be exposed to it in some accident, etc. First responders must be in the know of weather conditions like this. Farmers may care about it at certain stages of the crop cycle, so there could be major affects on their business. I know you get and understand that point. The Meteorologist must be messenger to 100% of the people in their coverage area ... and they must be the first to "sound the alarm" as it's their job.

Meteorology, like any other science and engineering discipline is very heavily driven around hard numbers. There are specific cut-off / threshold values (wind, temp (hot and cold), dewpoint, relative humidity, amount of precip) in which the NWS must issue warnings for.

The local TV Mets, in the end, get all of their data from government, academic, and/or other global "agencies". but mostly the local mets get their data from NOAA and various groups under them like NWS, SPC, CPC, NHC, etc. and act as a secondary line of communications / warning for the public. How it's communicated is where the rubber meets the road with the Public consumer.

It used to be that communications like this was more common sense based (to me). Straight forward with no bull****, hype, doomerism, condescension, etc. To me that has ended with the advent of the internet as we know it now and social media, etc. Some of the younger generation of Mets I see on TV "over-dramatize" stuff, or get into things that are more political than just sticking with the forecast. It seems to be the new normal decorum nowadays (for good or bad depending on your view).

To give you an idea of how the NWS has recently changed how they handle messaging cold weather which started back on October 1st, then you can read this :

National Weather Service revises watch, warning and advisory products for cold

I know I can speak for a lot of Mets out there who are very frustrated with the way things are out there now. It's become kinda a mess in general.

-Matt

January 7

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

No offense taken, it's simply a discussion. I totally understand that the Weather forecasters are going to take the wrath if they miss, and definitely not a career I would want to take on. But in this instance we were talking about temps at freezing, not the 19F we saw last year. 19F for this climate is hazardous, but 32F low ( a couple hours) and 50F and sunny in the day is not what I would classify as "Dangerous". It is within the norms of winter weather here. I understand there are people who don't pay attention to the weather, but I just don't appreciate the inflammatory language.

"Tonight will be the coldest night of the winter, with lows around freezing. Be sure to dress appropriately for cold weather." That's along the lines of what I want to hear.

In this day and age is all about making a big deal of everything, just to make sure people start to panic . The only way to get someone's attention is to make it look dramatic. Click bait !

When it comes to weather forecast I'd rather have the worst case scenario, in the forecast, described in a professional less dramatic way but serious enough to keep folks attention so we can get prepared and adjust to the following situation.

No matter where you live rules ( dos and don'ts) for winter and summer seasons should be taught at every corner in the world . Using common sense is also very helpful.

For me, I know Texas gets severe winter freezes , not like the rust belt but bad enough to ruin our hobby of growing palms. We know it. You move to Florida you should not whine if your house gets flooded by a hurricane or serious downpour one day. I feel like human beings are so much in denial about many things today like they only live today. History always repeats .

So far Texas is experiencing a less severe artic blast at least in the lower half where palms grow all over. If you haven't planted z10a/b palms your palms don't need no protection at all. Far away from any damage.

Growing up in Germany this is early spring for me lol. Every winter it got down to 0°F, sometimes even slightly colder. Icy roads, snow , rain for weeks in the row not uncommon. It's called winter. No news worth to me.

January 7

19 minutes ago, amh said:

21F to 22F last night, lots of fun, but it is still warmer than usual, fingers crossed.

It briefly bottomed out at 24 here. 11 Hours below freezing last night.

That cirrus deck stayed north of me and it didn't thicken in like I though it would. ... so it went down colder and longer a bit.

I see no damages to the palms I didn't cover. This dry/cold air doesn't seem to be bothering them. I may cover them tomorrow if freezing precip looks closer to reality. Hi-res models are sticking with cold rain here now. I think that may hold up. The upper level low is holding back west more which should allow the surface to 850mb layer to warm up more and thicken. Surface temps during the precip event should be a degree or two above freezing where I am at.

-Matt

January 7

Everyone! ALERT!!!!!!! ALERT! We ARE getting historic snowfall here of 2-4" Friday!!! I rented this snowblower so I won't be stuck!!

January 7

13 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

It briefly bottomed out at 24 here. 11 Hours below freezing last night.

That cirrus deck stayed north of me and it didn't thicken in like I though it would. ... so it went down colder and longer a bit.

I see no damages to the palms I didn't cover. This dry/cold air doesn't seem to be bothering them. I may cover them tomorrow if freezing precip looks closer to reality. Hi-res models are sticking with cold rain here now. I think that may hold up. The upper level low is holding back west more which should allow the surface to 850mb layer to warm up more and thicken. Surface temps during the precip event should be a degree or two above freezing where I am at.

-Matt

I had some of the clouds to the west early in the night, but they had disappeared before midnight and the temperature went down to 25F after eleven.

I didn't have any noticeable damage to my inground palms or potted sabals, but I had a brahea get burned earlier in the season at 23F. I thought it was planted in a semi-protected area, but I was wrong.

It has been a relief to see the forecast change to just rain, which I hope to be true.

January 7

A brief aside / example of a forecast discussion from a private consulting meteorologist who is 10 years my senior in age with 40+ years of forecasting experience, half of which was on TV. He's someone I've known for 30 years and is really good about communicating with levity. Here's his discussion for the lower 48 that was posted on January 4th (right when the snowstorm over KS was getting started):

Note(s):

1 -- I do know that he's had some frustrations with some of the online "personalities" who have been "forecasting" / pushing this storm and you can get the hint of that within his discussion.

2 -- Storm #2 is the one that will start in TX tomorrow (Wednesday the 8th)

3 -- This discussion is targeted to his customers, many who are in the energy, agriculture, and other big industrial infrastructures business.

enjoy.

- Matt

This is not the worst winter storm you have ever encountered, far from it. There will be a pronounced area of freezing rain>sleet>snow accumulations, accompanied by a modified Arctic intrusion and some stronger winds, in the gap between the Interstate 70 and 40 corridors during Sunday into Monday. But the amplification of the 500MB flow is not extreme, and seems to lean toward a -NAO dominance. That allows some mixture with Pacific Ocean source air, since the trans-ridge gap over the far northern Canadian Islands fills in with westerly flow.

So as the low pressure center moves off of the coastline of Virginia Capes, the turn northeast will be somewhat muted and the precipitation will start to break down. Some light snow may affect the immediate New York /Long Island NY metro area, but the moderate/heavy ice and snow will mostly stay along and below the Mason-Dixon Line, after tormenting the lower Missouri Valley and eastern Corn and Tobacco Belts. The cold that is drawn into the eastern half of the lower 48 states will be in the aggravating spectrum, but not what you may have read in broadcast and social media. The nocturnal freeze line may initially get down to the Interstate 10 corridor. But the worst of the cold will wait for most until next weekend. Which brings us to....

.... Storm Number 2!

Even with a "so-so" upper air pattern (that is lacking well-defined blocking ridges), we will have perhaps another challenge from a winter storm during the January 9 - 12 time frame. This feature (now in the eastern Pacific Ocean) looks to bring some excitement to the area from the Great Plains into the Appalachian Mountains, with surface cyclogenesis in the western Gulf of Mexico and a path roughly up through the Eastern Seaboard from Georgia into Nova Scotia. You may notice that the upper flow during this sequence is strong south/southwest. That can only mean evacuation of any cA air and a quick warm-up along the Interstate 81 and 95 corridors. So while the Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes and Appalachia may see a damaging snow and ice event, a quick changeover to liquid types with thunder possible, seems in the cards for the major cities above Richmond VA. The cold drainage behind this potentially deep system could bring a freeze into much of Mexico. But considering that the flatter jet stream configuration in mid January will likely bring at least a week or so of warming, the snow and ice potential will be short-term and not lead to "an old-fashioned Arctic Blast" or that dreaded "Invasion Of A Polar Vortex".

At best, this is an up-and-down winter. Deal with it.

January 7

58 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

It used to be that communications like this was more common sense based (to me). Straight forward with no bull****, hype, doomerism, condescension, etc. To me that has ended with the advent of the internet as we know it now and social media, etc. Some of the younger generation of Mets I see on TV "over-dramatize" stuff, or get into things that are more political than just sticking with the forecast. It seems to be the new normal decorum nowadays (for good or bad depending on your view).

I agree. As a rational human being I just want the information and data, information presented in a concise manner. Its then up to me to decide how I am going to deal with it.

50 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

In this day and age is all about making a big deal of everything, just to make sure people start to panic . The only way to get someone's attention is to make it look dramatic. Click bait !

You are 100% correct. Not to get off topic but it seems like attention spans are getting shorter and shorter. Watch any TV show and count the number of seconds before they change the frame/shot, usually its 1 to 3. Very few steady shots of even 10 or 15 seconds, I actually find it more annoying each year.

24 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

A brief aside / example of a forecast discussion from a private consulting meteorologist who is 10 years my senior in age with 40+ years of forecasting experience, half of which was on TV. He's someone I've known for 30 years and is really good about communicating with levity. Here's his discussion for the lower 48 that was posted on January 4th (right when the snowstorm over KS was getting started):

Note(s):

1 -- I do know that he's had some frustrations with some of the online "personalities" who have been "forecasting" / pushing this storm and you can get the hint of that within his discussion.

2 -- Storm #2 is the one that will start in TX tomorrow (Wednesday the 8th)

enjoy.

- Matt

<BEGIN DISCUSSION>

This is not the worst winter storm you have ever encountered, far from it. There will be a pronounced area of freezing rain>sleet>snow accumulations, accompanied by a modified Arctic intrusion and some stronger winds, in the gap between the Interstate 70 and 40 corridors during Sunday into Monday. But the amplification of the 500MB flow is not extreme, and seems to lean toward a -NAO dominance. That allows some mixture with Pacific Ocean source air, since the trans-ridge gap over the far northern Canadian Islands fills in with westerly flow.

So as the low pressure center moves off of the coastline of Virginia Capes, the turn northeast will be somewhat muted and the precipitation will start to break down. Some light snow may affect the immediate New York /Long Island NY metro area, but the moderate/heavy ice and snow will mostly stay along and below the Mason-Dixon Line, after tormenting the lower Missouri Valley and eastern Corn and Tobacco Belts. The cold that is drawn into the eastern half of the lower 48 states will be in the aggravating spectrum, but not what you may have read in broadcast and social media. The nocturnal freeze line may initially get down to the Interstate 10 corridor. But the worst of the cold will wait for most until next weekend. Which brings us to....

.... Storm Number 2!

Even with a "so-so" upper air pattern (that is lacking well-defined blocking ridges), we will have perhaps another challenge from a winter storm during the January 9 - 12 time frame. This feature (now in the eastern Pacific Ocean) looks to bring some excitement to the area from the Great Plains into the Appalachian Mountains, with surface cyclogenesis in the western Gulf of Mexico and a path roughly up through the Eastern Seaboard from Georgia into Nova Scotia. You may notice that the upper flow during this sequence is strong south/southwest. That can only mean evacuation of any cA air and a quick warm-up along the Interstate 81 and 95 corridors. So while the Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes and Appalachia may see a damaging snow and ice event, a quick changeover to liquid types with thunder possible, seems in the cards for the major cities above Richmond VA. The cold drainage behind this potentially deep system could bring a freeze into much of Mexico. But considering that the flatter jet stream configuration in mid January will likely bring at least a week or so of warming, the snow and ice potential will be short-term and not lead to "an old-fashioned Arctic Blast" or that dreaded "Invasion Of A Polar Vortex".

At best, this is an up-and-down winter. Deal with it.

<END DISCUSSION>

This is so much better. Concise and not overly dramatic.

January 7

While todays highs should be cooler...looking at yesterdays highs, some locations west of the Mississippi had highs about 5 - 10 below normal, but nothing really that extreme for mid winter. Houston and Corpus were about 15 F off their normal highs...while New Orleans was about 5 -6 F below normal.

However, most NWS reporting stations had daily highs pretty close to climatology yesterday. Here in PBC we were even a bit above normal (a few lower 80's F/mid 70's F is normal).

Today and for the next few days/nights, the core of the coldest air should be felt a farther east of the Miss River.

yh7.jpg.f407a4389f8853ec54582a2afb05e468.jpg

January 7

1 hour ago, Allen said:

Everyone! ALERT!!!!!!! ALERT! We ARE getting historic snowfall here of 2-4" Friday!!! I rented this snowblower so I won't be stuck!!

That was funny Allen.

Seems the media knows that the season of weather hype is short. They try to get in as much as they can...while they can.

January 8

On 1/6/2025 at 7:24 PM, UK_Palms said:

It’s not looking good for that Yorkshire Kris guy. He’s in northern England at 53.4N and quite far inland. Some of you would be familiar with him from YouTube. His CIDP is probably too big to protect now really.

Thanks for sharing that channel. Looks like a good one to subscribe to. I hope his collection will be OK. He just posted a video a few hrs ago!

I have been following Craig from 'Grow Paradise' for some time now and it always amazed how our friends in the UK can get their hands on some of that hardy exotic stuff: https://www.youtube.com/@GrowParadise

I believe Craig is near the South coast so he should be better off!!

WELCOME GUEST

Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

Recommended Posts

JeskiM

Chester B

fr8train

Victor likes palms

Mazat

Mazat

Silas_Sancona

Chester B

JeskiM

PaPalmTrees

amh

Subtropical LIS

Silas_Sancona

LakeEriePalms

JeskiM

UK_Palms

Dwarf Fan

amh

Xenon

JeskiM

Peakster

Dwarf Fan

Subtropical LIS

JeskiM

Xenon

UK_Palms

Mazat

Mazat

Chester B

amh

JeskiM

MarcusH

JeskiM

Allen

amh

JeskiM

Chester B

Subtropical LIS

Subtropical LIS

Swolte

Create an account or sign in to comment

Create an account

Sign in

Recently Browsing

Browse

Activity

Support