Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[Arecaceus]

47 minutes ago, kristof p said:

so far we (Coastal Belguim) had a few nights with subzero temps around -1°C but tonight could be the coldest night so far this winter with -4°C forecasted. I hope the Butia seeds survive coming night as -4°C is normally the temperature they start dying off.

What? Really? Do you mean as in them dying off at the palm and not fully developping or on the ground? Because I thought you can even deep freeze most palm seeds without killing them. My Butia hasn't fruited yet so I don't know when they're ripe.

[kristof p]

1 hour ago, Arecaceus said:

What? Really? Do you mean as in them dying off at the palm and not fully developping or on the ground? Because I thought you can even deep freeze most palm seeds without killing them. My Butia hasn't fruited yet so I don't know when they're ripe.

in my experience Butia seeds start to drop after a hard freeze with temperatures around -4°C for some time. They are not like Trachycarpus seeds that can survive a hard freeze. 

[Arecaceus]

13 minutes ago, kristof p said:

in my experience Butia seeds start to drop after a hard freeze with temperatures around -4°C for some time. They are not like Trachycarpus seeds that can survive a hard freeze. 

So Butia seeds are not ripe in winter then?

[kristof p]

14 minutes ago, Arecaceus said:

So Butia seeds are not ripe in winter then?

No not always...most of the time they are not ready before winter and they ripen further in spring if the frost don't kill them during the wintermonths

[Arecaceus]

5 minutes ago, kristof p said:

No not always...most of the time they are not ready before winter and they ripen further in spring if the frost don't kill them during the wintermonths

Ah OK interesting

[PalmSupreme]

9 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

That station often goes invisible on wunderground because the temps are so off all the other nearby stations...

No, the reason because it is a netatmo weather station typically these give erroneous readings not for being too cool but too hot as most do not have a radiation shield. Mine is kept in full shade in my garden not above concrete. As I also explained the other PWS is on a high rise building. Most PWS in inner London are not kept in gardens. My readings are 100% correct my overnight low was 2.7c this compares with 2C at Heathrow and 3.1C at St James's Park 5 miles to my west - very much in line. I do not seek to compare with unofficial amateur stations which are poorly placed and suffer from over heating due to proximity to urban materials. My station is among the most accurate in PWS network for a central part of London as I have already explained the area also experiences a microclimate for example in Dec 2022 my area of Rotherhithe still had snow cover a week later. In zone 1 it was nearly all gone overnight. The -4.8C min the other night was within 1C of my lowest recorded temperature so it was a significant freeze for here.

[Matthew92]

[PalmSupreme]

On 1/12/2025 at 9:28 PM, Jonathan said:

That's cold! 

I assume the first column is daily minimum, second is maximum...what are the other two showing us?

The average temps in London on paper are very similar to Hobart in Tasmania, where I live...but the climate is so different it makes my head spin! We never see true cold like that...if the temp drops to 0c with frost, the next day will be sunny and 12c, so I think the weather station minimums give a part of the story, the maximums are very significant too. 

Thanks for posting this, it helps me understand your climate a lot better.

Hello, well December featured no frost at all! No frost is unusual but certainly not unheard of.  The mildest winters such as 2013/14 I had 0 frost. Lowest temperature I recorded last month was 0.9C those cluster of very cold nights recently are far from typical. BTW it’s showing the range between min and max and also average temperature.

[Las Palmas Norte]

1 hour ago, Matthew92 said:

That massive big blue blob looks like a palm executioner

 

[Swolte]

Just when I thought this was going to be the happiest vortex thread on the board...  looks like we're not out of the woods (at least in this part of Texas).

Another cold front coming up and this one does look worse. I mean, still, nothing serious for me...  but the dream of having a 9B winter for a change may meet a harsh cold reality.  Protection thus far has mostly been for cosmetic reasons but this one may hit the teens (in my yard) which can do damage. Prediction appears to worsen as we get closer to the date. Hope it improves like the previous vortex did.

[UK_Palms]

It’s a fight to keep the cold air out tonight! So far it isn’t getting across the channel. Due to the proximity of southeastern England to the continent, Scotland and Ireland are much milder tonight. A cold air mass and clear skies over Central Europe.

[Subtropical LIS]

9 hours ago, MarcusH said:

AccuWeather app predicts low of 19f on Tuesday next week. We all know what to think of those apps with their accuracy.  Even if that would be the case I'm not going to be concerned just have to deal with leaf burn on my Robusta.  All my other palms will see zero to minor leaf damage.  If temps get below 15f that's where I'm going to wake up. I'm in zone , well they call it 9a , I think it's safer to say it's a 8b (San Antonio).. it's amazing how quickly temperatures warm up in the late morning , I also think that's why palms survive so easily because our ultimate lows are very short.

Looking at tonight’s runs, I would be surprised if you even get that cold, I’m seeing around 22 - 24 F (9a) give a take a bit.  I would wait until at least Sat before anything is set in stone.

I also noticed that all the models show a very wide trough (shaped like a U) rather than the typical sharp V shaped trough associated with very cold troughs. So ultimate lows are likely not going to be too far from typical annual zonal lows:

    

Not surprised about how quick temps warm up in the morning, with normally sunny skies and dry air, the sun is very efficient at heating the air rapidly. Each run shows a warmer and warmer follow up to the cold shot in the Jan 25 – 28 range. Wide swath of 70’s from Texas to South Carolina…and 60’s north along the East Coast to Maryland. Approaching 80 F in the southern Rio Grande Valley - lol. 

 

[KPoff]

3 hours ago, Matthew92 said:

I looked at our forecast next week and we are looking at zone 8A lows. We’re in 8A so seems expected. Hopefully it doesn’t get worse than that.

[KPoff]

7 minutes ago, Subtropical LIS said:

Looking at tonight’s runs, I would be surprised if you even get that cold, I’m seeing around 22 - 24 F (9a) give a take a bit.  I would wait until at least Sat before anything is set in stone.

I also noticed that all the models show a very wide trough (shaped like a U) rather than the typical sharp V shaped trough associated with very cold troughs. So ultimate lows are likely not going to be too far from typical annual zonal lows:

    

Not surprised about how quick temps warm up in the morning, with normally sunny skies and dry air, the sun is very efficient at heating the air rapidly. Each run shows a warmer and warmer follow up to the cold shot in the Jan 25 – 28 range. Wide swath of 70’s from Texas to South Carolina…and 60’s north along the East Coast to Maryland. Approaching 80 F in the southern Rio Grande Valley - lol. 

 

What’s your model look like for Big Spring, TX?

[Arecaceus]

Second night of frost and again it went down to about -4°C. It was a light frost most of the night and then in the morning hours temps plummeted with a ultimate low of -4.3°C. Yesterday it was a bit milder with -3.7°C. Temperature is rising already at 8:30 a.m. and it looks like this has been it for this event already. Next night there is no further frost forecasted and long term it looks like dry calm and increasingly warmer weather is coming.

[Jonathan]

10 hours ago, PalmSupreme said:

Hello, well December featured no frost at all! No frost is unusual but certainly not unheard of.  The mildest winters such as 2013/14 I had 0 frost. Lowest temperature I recorded last month was 0.9C those cluster of very cold nights recently are far from typical. BTW it’s showing the range between min and max and also average temperature.

Ahh, makes sense. I probably should have done the maths!

Sounds like winter is a game of Russian Roulette for you guys. Good luck!

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Jonathan said:

Ahh, makes sense. I probably should have done the maths!

Sounds like winter is a game of Russian Roulette for you guys. Good luck!

Well, we certainly got off lightly last night. These were the minimums across much of Europe. -6C / 21F at Charles De Gaulle airport in Paris last night. Only a minimum of +2.1C / 36F at Heathrow airport in west London.

[PaPalmTrees]

man the weather keeps getting worse and worse 😟 hopefully february's mild.

[Subtropical LIS]

13 hours ago, KPoff said:

What’s your model look like for Big Spring, TX?

I'm sure you know these outputs change every 6 hrs. So beyond maybe 3- 4 days, they should be taken with a grain of salt (make that a lump of salt- lol). The models really are only a guide (of course they are used the opposite way - to hype the weather). 

There WILL be a cold polar plunge sometime early next week (Sun - Wed). It looks like a pretty typical late January cold snap in and out quick. One or two cold nights and days, then moves out. Now the models have pushed the cold out to the Wed (22nd) again. So for your location (using Midland roughly) lows around 18 F look reasonable:

By Friday highs should be near 50 F...and by the weekend the USA mainland should have temps very close to avarege across the country (20's and 30's F highs far north )....40's and 50's F central and upper south...and 60's and 70's from South Carolina across the Gulf Coast to southern CA: 

 

[MarcusH]

14 hours ago, Subtropical LIS said:

Looking at tonight’s runs, I would be surprised if you even get that cold, I’m seeing around 22 - 24 F (9a) give a take a bit.  I would wait until at least Sat before anything is set in stone.

I also noticed that all the models show a very wide trough (shaped like a U) rather than the typical sharp V shaped trough associated with very cold troughs. So ultimate lows are likely not going to be too far from typical annual zonal lows:

    

Not surprised about how quick temps warm up in the morning, with normally sunny skies and dry air, the sun is very efficient at heating the air rapidly. Each run shows a warmer and warmer follow up to the cold shot in the Jan 25 – 28 range. Wide swath of 70’s from Texas to South Carolina…and 60’s north along the East Coast to Maryland. Approaching 80 F in the southern Rio Grande Valley - lol. 

 

Crossing fingers I hope it will stay in the 20s . Would love to see my Robusta hybrid not defoliate for the very first time since I planted it almost 3 years ago. Thank you for sending me a detailed weather forecast.  

[Axel Amsterdam]

The city of Amsterdam has been frostfree so far this winter

[PaPalmTrees]

 the weather keeps getting worse

 

[KPoff]

5 hours ago, Subtropical LIS said:

I'm sure you know these outputs change every 6 hrs. So beyond maybe 3- 4 days, they should be taken with a grain of salt (make that a lump of salt- lol). The models really are only a guide (of course they are used the opposite way - to hype the weather). 

There WILL be a cold polar plunge sometime early next week (Sun - Wed). It looks like a pretty typical late January cold snap in and out quick. One or two cold nights and days, then moves out. Now the models have pushed the cold out to the Wed (22nd) again. So for your location (using Midland roughly) lows around 18 F look reasonable:

By Friday highs should be near 50 F...and by the weekend the USA mainland should have temps very close to avarege across the country (20's and 30's F highs far north )....40's and 50's F central and upper south...and 60's and 70's from South Carolina across the Gulf Coast to southern CA: 

 

@Subtropical LIS I hope that’s the worst. I mean from what the forecast shows as well this is pretty typical winter weather we should expect at least once per winter. I’ve been in west Texas 14 years and it always happens once if not 2-3 x’s other wise we would be rated as zone 9 or so. I appreciate the great feedback!!

[CascadiaPalms]

Yikes, Round 2!

[UK_Palms]

3 hours ago, Axel Amsterdam said:

The city of Amsterdam has been frostfree so far this winter

 

Unlike previous winters, you guys have definitely lucked out somewhat so far and avoided the worst of the winter weather that has effected the UK at times and central Europe into France. I see that Amsterdam's airport, which is further inland, has registered -4.1C / 24.6F however a few nights back. I count 7 nights of air frost there (<0.0C) at Schiphol airport so far this month.

 

I can't see an official weather station for the actual proper city area of Amsterdam, but having checked PWS's in the centre of the city, there seems to be a low of about -1C to +1C / 30-34F so far this month with some picking up an air frost last night. Although that is still admittedly quite mild either way for Amsterdam and the nights have clearly been milder than London even.

There are some signs of a 'Beast from the East' type scenario developing towards the end of the month and going into February. That is of course what brings the coldest temperatures to the Netherlands and southern England. It probably won't happen, but certainly one to watch! We're technically not even halfway through winter just yet. I think overall it will end up being very mild for you and fairly mild for us here as well come March. But you can't rule anything out yet.

[CascadiaPalms]

Meanwhile...in Portland.

[UK_Palms]

9 minutes ago, CascadiaPalms said:

Meanwhile...in Portland.

 

Usually... and I must say 'usually'... a mild/warm PNW is bad news for the east coast of North America AND western Europe as well. I would say that 75% of the time that the PNW has above average temperatures, western Europe has below average temps. Of course there are exceptions to this rule however.

I'm not 100% sure why this is, but almost certainly down to heights being situated in certain areas that favour mild air transport from the Pacific to the west of North America and cooler air further east down the line from the arctic, as well as kinks in the jet stream. Don't quote me on that as the explanation will be far from being scientifically/meteorologically accurate, but there is definitely a correlation between above average PNW temps and below average in western Europe.

I have seen it far too many times, in both winter and summer. Often the PNW and Ural/Russia regions are above average simultaneously. Then the eastern US, western Europe and far east Asia are below average. Again, normally. An above average western Europe is normally bad news for the PNW. Not always the case however, but the back end of January is already looking a bit chilly for us here in what could be a below average month.

[flplantguy]

33 minutes ago, CascadiaPalms said:

Meanwhile...in Portland.

That could be my temps here in Central Florida this winter, no exaggeration.  We did have some days get near 70 though, but lows are almost spot on. More lows near freezing HERE than that though.

[NBTX11]

National Weather Service lows forecasted for San Antonio and Austin. 

[DTS]

Weather App is 7 degrees off from the actual temperature 😭🫸🫷

[NBTX11]

9 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Crossing fingers I hope it will stay in the 20s . Would love to see my Robusta hybrid not defoliate for the very first time since I planted it almost 3 years ago. Thank you for sending me a detailed weather forecast.  

Marcus, if predictions hold it won’t defoliate, but you may see bronzing and spotting on older fronds. Cut those off in spring and you should be good to go. 

[Las Palmas Norte]

I added some C9 bulbs to my already mini lights. There's a forecast for overnight temperatures in the 20°'s this coming weekend. 

 

[jwitt]

Maybe I need more leaves for Monday?

 

[Mazat]

7 hours ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

I added some C9 bulbs to my already mini lights. There's a forecast for overnight temperatures in the 20°'s this coming weekend. 

 

Yes safe is safe 

[Mazat]

6 hours ago, jwitt said:

Maybe I need more leaves for Monday?

 

Probably better.  i would do it😃

[Mazat]

9 hours ago, DTS said:

Weather App is 7 degrees off from the actual temperature 😭🫸🫷

I had also bad experiences with other weather apps in the past☹️

[Mazat]

we had this morning -6.0 C / 21.2 F and at the moment 2.6 C / 36.68 F and rising

 

[UK_Palms]

You know the freeze is long gone for us in the UK now when the far north of Scotland is almost hitting 16C / 60F at 03:00am!

These were the minimums for the past 12 hours across Europe…

 

And the temps at 8am… +14C in northern Scotland…

I think Texas is going to avoid much of the cold to be honest, as it sweeps across the eastern states. However some models and runs have pretty bad scenarios still, even for the likes of Houston and San Antonio. Will these charts here materialise, almost certainly not. But it is always a possibility, even if it is a very low possibility.

 

Wind chills of -25F in College Station on this (won’t happen)…

[ChrisA]

I appreciate your optimism for Texas Ben! I’m not sure what models you screenclipped, but they look horrid. I haven’t seen anything posted up until yesterday from either the US’s GFS ensemble or the Euro solution going that cold. I do know that every morning I wake up the then current consensus is for colder. A screenshot above showing the low temps for various cities and towns in South-Central Texas showed San Antonio down to 26F, that info was clipped from the US National Weather Service’s San Antonio Met Office.  Today that graphic is gone and the forecast now shows down to 19F on Tuesday morning with other mornings down to the low 20’s. Even the forecaster’s discussion is extremely vague. Not a good sign! 
 

Really hope this turns around because as we get closer it’s trending colder every day, definitely in the wrong direction.

[MarcusH]

11 hours ago, NBTX11 said:

Marcus, if predictions hold it won’t defoliate, but you may see bronzing and spotting on older fronds. Cut those off in spring and you should be good to go. 

Thank you James.  At what temperature can I expect defoliation on my Robusta?