Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[Chester B]

@MarcusH  If you have an old blanket throw it over top.  That may be enough to stop any cosmetic damage.

[UK_Palms]

1 hour ago, ChrisA said:

I appreciate your optimism for Texas Ben! I’m not sure what models you screenclipped, but they look horrid. I haven’t seen anything posted up until yesterday from either the US’s GFS ensemble or the Euro solution going that cold. I do know that every morning I wake up the then current consensus is for colder. A screenshot above showing the low temps for various cities and towns in South-Central Texas showed San Antonio down to 26F, that info was clipped from the US National Weather Service’s San Antonio Met Office.  Today that graphic is gone and the forecast now shows down to 19F on Tuesday morning with other mornings down to the low 20’s. Even the forecaster’s discussion is extremely vague. Not a good sign! 
 

Really hope this turns around because as we get closer it’s trending colder every day, definitely in the wrong direction.

I don’t think it will be too bad for the Texas folk, despite some of the crazier model outputs that pop up here and there. However NYC now looks like it is about to get absolutely walloped. There are one to two PT members there, one of which has a CIDP. He needs to prepare for lows of 5F and a day or two that does not rise above 15F, as well as snowfall at the start of the event and at least 200 hours below freezing. Pretty brutal given that they have already had a cold event and 12F at Central Park back in December.

[Xenon]

Is it time for cautious optimism? Since yesterday evening GFS has been pointing towards an onshore flow next week to save Texas 😆. The GFS actually wants to make this nearly a non-event! The latest Euro is picking up on it too but not quite as optimistic (but much warmer than past few days). Local NWS forecast has also shifted up a few degrees since yesterday afternoon.

Edit: I mixed up the timestamps but the general pattern is still there 

GFS Tuesday morning

GEFS (ensemble)...southernly flow Monday night into Tuesday morning???

 

Cold front stalls somewhere around I-10 throughout Tuesday?

The line holds through Wednesday AM? 

Is winter over??? 

 

[ChrisA]

Jonathan, let’s hope that trend keeps up! I’d love a non-event!! My queen would appreciate not getting down to the teens as well because it will likely croak. I’m not going to protect it.  Although I will protect my young robustas.

Thanks for the optimism and spreading some hope!

[Las Palmas Norte]

1 hour ago, ChrisA said:

... Thanks for the optimism and spreading some hope!

In my experience, those two things have killed more of my palms than I care to think. I plan for the worst case.

[ChrisA]

😂 I hear ya! Experience sucks!

[NBTX11]

3 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Thank you James.  At what temperature can I expect defoliation on my Robusta? 

Low 20s will cause significant spotting and bronzing, but crown should stay intact. Below 20 will defoliate it. 

[Meangreen94z]

The current event is definitely moderating, we shall see. I’ve heard there is another event lining up for late January, which may include ice. 

[Las Palmas Norte]

Yes. Getting the coldest we've seen this season in the coming days. I'll be our first true frost.

 

[SailorBold]

I'm praying..  would really be nice if nothing defoliates this year at all.. I've been down to 17f this winter thus far..

It looks like it's moderating..but.. February is coming..   trying not to freak out.  5-6 weeks to go and should be in the clear..

[jwitt]

12 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

I'm praying..  would really be nice if nothing defoliates this year at all.. I've been down to 17f this winter thus far..

It looks like it's moderating..but.. February is coming..   trying not to freak out.  5-6 weeks to go and should be in the clear..

From the ABQ NWS:

While the 00Z guidance

doesn`t put this airmass into historic context, the latest NAEFS

is showing surface pressure across eastern NM roughly 3 standard

deviations from climatology. Meaning, there is at least some

potential for this airmass to be historic and will gain clarity

with additional model cycles.

[PalmSupreme]

Tuesday morning lows on ECM 12z the most widespread extent of Arctic cold blast.

[CascadiaPalms]

On 1/14/2025 at 3:14 PM, UK_Palms said:

 

Usually... and I must say 'usually'... a mild/warm PNW is bad news for the east coast of North America AND western Europe as well. I would say that 75% of the time that the PNW has above average temperatures, western Europe has below average temps. Of course there are exceptions to this rule however.

I'm not 100% sure why this is, but almost certainly down to heights being situated in certain areas that favour mild air transport from the Pacific to the west of North America and cooler air further east down the line from the arctic, as well as kinks in the jet stream. Don't quote me on that as the explanation will be far from being scientifically/meteorologically accurate, but there is definitely a correlation between above average PNW temps and below average in western Europe.

I have seen it far too many times, in both winter and summer. Often the PNW and Ural/Russia regions are above average simultaneously. Then the eastern US, western Europe and far east Asia are below average. Again, normally. An above average western Europe is normally bad news for the PNW. Not always the case however, but the back end of January is already looking a bit chilly for us here in what could be a below average month.

You're pretty darn close.  For us to be "more" mild in winter....the jet stream rises above us to BC/SE Alaska area and we even often get high pressure over in our region.  With that said, the jet stream usually sharply declines south right along the Rocky Mountains which allows cold air to pour down from Canada into the rest of the USA.

[Subtropical LIS]

10 hours ago, Xenon said:

Is it time for cautious optimism? Since yesterday evening GFS has been pointing towards an onshore flow next week to save Texas 😆. The GFS actually wants to make this nearly a non-event! The latest Euro is picking up on it too but not quite as optimistic (but much warmer than past few days). Local NWS forecast has also shifted up a few degrees since yesterday afternoon.

Edit: I mixed up the timestamps but the general pattern is still there 

GFS Tuesday morning

GEFS (ensemble)...southernly flow Monday night into Tuesday morning???

 

Cold front stalls somewhere around I-10 throughout Tuesday?

The line holds through Wednesday AM? 

Is winter over??? 

 

To be honest, each day that the cold snap gets closer, I keep thinking the same thing – in the end will this event be a non-event?  Lol.

Each model does have its strong and weak points. The GFS often takes warm/cold shots in and out too slow (timing issues), while the Euro models seem to struggle with the grasping subtropical synoptic weather (over estimate cold/under estimates high temps).

Looking at things tonight, I really think that most locations in the CONUS will end up falling to right around their annual zonal lows.  I can't see most of Texas going below 20 F...and I think coastal TX stays in the 30's F. Also, it does look like a serious warmup from most locations from 40 latitude south in the CONUS. 60’s and 70’s F between Texas and Virginia (80’s F again here in Florida)…and 50’s and 60’s F in the Tennessee Valley and East Coast to NYC.

 

 

[Swolte]

(Translated to College Station)
Don't want to jinx anything, a long time below zero, but temps in the 20's but cloud cover and snow (and a quick warm up around the corner). This even sounds fun compared to the last few years to me!
 

[UK_Palms]

6 hours ago, Swolte said:

(Translated to College Station)
Don't want to jinx anything, a long time below zero, but temps in the 20's but cloud cover and snow (and a quick warm up around the corner). This even sounds fun compared to the last few years to me!
 

You need to be careful with snow. I will always argue that no snow is better than having some snow, even if people insist that it insulates small palms or whatever. But not only does snow add to moisture problems by making it more of a wet-freeze, but it also increases the rate of radiational cooling on a clear night. So what would have been say a 25F night could turn into a 15F night with lying snow cover. Whenever I have had snow here, it normally means the following night is much colder than it would have been without any snow cover. Obviously if there is a load of cloud cover during said event, that will mitigate things. But what you definitely don’t want is clear skies at night with snow on the ground!

[Swolte]

Thanks,  good points, I am not too worried given the cloud cover but I may throw some cloths over valuable palms I'd normally wouldn't protect (5 minutes work, with some stakes) to keep the snow off! It does look like I need to start protections on some young and vulnerable ones on Friday (or even Thursday) as my yard has a cold microclimate.
:)

[Xenon]

Forecast keeps getting warmer and warmer 😊The NWS forecast minimum for Houston is now "only" 28F. 

I'll definitely take snow over freezing rain though. I remember several snow events just below/at freezing in Houston that didn't really do any lasting damage to tender vegetation. Freezing rain on the other hand causes leaf breakage and potential problems when it gets into the crown of palms. 

My favorite snow pics...royals and coconuts covered in snow in 2017 and 2004 snow events in far south TX/NE Mexico.  The plants were not seriously harmed. Hard to believe it did not snow there for over 100 years, but now already 3 times this century 😆. (photos from old Palm Society of South Texas website and pulled from IG)

 

[SeanK]

19 hours ago, jwitt said:

From the ABQ NWS:

While the 00Z guidance

doesn`t put this airmass into historic context, the latest NAEFS

is showing surface pressure across eastern NM roughly 3 standard

deviations from climatology. Meaning, there is at least some

potential for this airmass to be historic and will gain clarity

with additional model cycles.

-3 sigma should be the zone minimum.

[Mazat]

1 hour ago, Xenon said:

Forecast keeps getting warmer and warmer 😊The NWS forecast minimum for Houston is now "only" 28F. 

I'll definitely take snow over freezing rain though. I remember several snow events just below/at freezing in Houston that didn't really do any lasting damage to tender vegetation. Freezing rain on the other hand causes leaf breakage and potential problems when it gets into the crown of palms. 

My favorite snow pics...royals and coconuts covered in snow in 2017 and 2004 snow events in far south TX/NE Mexico.  The plants were not seriously harmed. Hard to believe it did not snow there for over 100 years, but now already 3 times this century 😆. (photos from old Palm Society of South Texas website and pulled from IG)

 

wonderful pictures. it looks like a winter fairy tale, garden of eden in winter with palm trees.

[Mazat]

20 hours ago, SailorBold said:

I'm praying..  would really be nice if nothing defoliates this year at all.. I've been down to 17f this winter thus far..

It looks like it's moderating..but.. February is coming..   trying not to freak out.  5-6 weeks to go and should be in the clear..

yes. It was very similar here in the last few years; once February was over, things went in the right direction relatively quickly, to put it that way.

[Mazat]

we had this morning min. 1.4 °C / 34.52 °F and max 7.5 °C / 45.5 °F.

i must check my weatherstation after i saw the max. temperature but all is good ...

we are happy and yet it was strange to have a night without frost again for a change. sounds crazy😁

[Mazat]

11 hours ago, Swolte said:

(Translated to College Station)
Don't want to jinx anything, a long time below zero, but temps in the 20's but cloud cover and snow (and a quick warm up around the corner). This even sounds fun compared to the last few years to me!
 

yes, it sounds funny. hopefully, it it is getting warmer step by step. we were also happy that we had in january untill today only min. -6.0 °C / 21 °F.

[Ivanos1982]

4 hours ago, Xenon said:

Forecast keeps getting warmer and warmer 😊The NWS forecast minimum for Houston is now "only" 28F. 

I'll definitely take snow over freezing rain though. I remember several snow events just below/at freezing in Houston that didn't really do any lasting damage to tender vegetation. Freezing rain on the other hand causes leaf breakage and potential problems when it gets into the crown of palms. 

My favorite snow pics...royals and coconuts covered in snow in 2017 and 2004 snow events in far south TX/NE Mexico.  The plants were not seriously harmed. Hard to believe it did not snow there for over 100 years, but now already 3 times this century 😆. (photos from old Palm Society of South Texas website and pulled from IG)

 

models just updated AGAIN to temps in the teens so it seems like it's gonna get bad.

[Xenon]

13 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

models just updated AGAIN to temps in the teens so it seems like it's gonna get bad.

You mean this? LOOOOL that's not going to happen. 

 

 

 

This is too crazy LOOOOL can you imagine it being 12 degrees in Lafayette, Louisiana even colder than Alberta and Saskatchewan? hahahahaha

[PaPalmTrees]

This winter has been crazy cold, On the 20 first it's going to get down to NEGATIVE 4, Hopefully February is Mild. also the First picture is from 2025 and The second picture is From 2024 As you can see 2024 January was not that cold Except for Those few days but 2025 January was pretty cold It's Interesting how the weather can  have a really big difference each year.

 

 

[Allen]

Trachy palms wrapped for expected sub 10F

[palmnut-fry]

8 hours ago, Xenon said:

Forecast keeps getting warmer and warmer 😊The NWS forecast minimum for Houston is now "only" 28F. 

I'll definitely take snow over freezing rain though. I remember several snow events just below/at freezing in Houston that didn't really do any lasting damage to tender vegetation. Freezing rain on the other hand causes leaf breakage and potential problems when it gets into the crown of palms. 

My favorite snow pics...royals and coconuts covered in snow in 2017 and 2004 snow events in far south TX/NE Mexico.  The plants were not seriously harmed. Hard to believe it did not snow there for over 100 years, but now already 3 times this century 😆. (photos from old Palm Society of South Texas website and pulled from IG)

 

Well, did you have radiational cooling bad the next nite? I always heard snow was an insulator but to knock off as much as possible!

These forecasts keep showing us not to get worked up so far into future but maybe the warm up is delayed action of La Nina?

[Xenon]

14 minutes ago, palmnut-fry said:

Well, did you have radiational cooling bad the next nite? I always heard snow was an insulator but to knock off as much as possible!

These forecasts keep showing us not to get worked up so far into future but maybe the warm up is delayed action of La Nina?

 

No, the snow generally does not stick around. In those pics with snow in the morning, it was already in the mid 60s by the afternoon. 75 the next day and then back to several days with highs in the 80s. Truly a rollercoaster ride! 

[Las Palmas Norte]

I put some frost protection on one stand of Musa basjoo. I just wanted to keep these ones from having to re- grow from the ground up this spring. The coldest night has been revised to 29°F rather than 25°F.

 

[SailorBold]

36 minutes ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

I put some frost protection on one stand of Musa basjoo. I just wanted to keep these ones from having to re- grow from the ground up this spring. The coldest night has been revised to 29°F rather than 25°F.

 

Dude.. is that a schefflera?

[Chester B]

These winters with these random damaging cold snaps are getting so old.   I keep moving to warmer and warmer places but it doesn't seem to be helping.  I'm going to protect my Bismarckia and that's it.  Whatever dies won't be replanted.  I'm glad I have mostly Sabals and Butia-ish things.  There's a potential for 36 hours below freezing.

[Keys6505]

19 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Dude.. is that a schefflera?

Guessing it would have to be either a Delavayi or Taiwaniana.

[Las Palmas Norte]

34 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Dude.. is that a schefflera?

 

13 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

Guessing it would have to be either a Delavayi or Taiwaniana.

 

Neither. Fatsia japonica. A Pacific Northwest favorite.

[Las Palmas Norte]

20 minutes ago, Chester B said:

... I keep moving to warmer and warmer places but it doesn't seem to be helping. ...

So you're not moving to warmer places? Certainly in the summer. San Diego brother. San Diego.

[Keys6505]

10 minutes ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

 

 

Neither. Fatsia japonica. A Pacific Northwest favorite.

I see the Fatsia, I was referring to the shrub on the left.  If not schefflera then..Rhododendron?

[UK_Palms]

34 minutes ago, Chester B said:

These winters with these random damaging cold snaps are getting so old.   I keep moving to warmer and warmer places but it doesn't seem to be helping.  I'm going to protect my Bismarckia and that's it.  Whatever dies won't be replanted.  I'm glad I have mostly Sabals and Butia-ish things.  There's a potential for 36 hours below freezing.

 

I didn't think the freeze event would actually impact Houston too much, irrespective of a few crazy model runs. The nighttime minimums still don't look too bad at all for you really, but I see a 0C / 32F daytime max there on one of those days! 😬

Even during that nasty artic blast event that we had last week (coldest UK temp in 4 years registered), the daytime temp still reached +3.1C / 37.5F here. I think St James Park in London recorded +3.3C / 38F as the coldest daytime max last week during the peak of our event.

So if you don't go above 0C / 32F on one of those days, that is pretty brutal. I'm guessing you are also preparing for two back to back nights of 25F as well based on that forecast you posted? At least you haven't got any snow in the mix with it though, right?

[ahosey01]

6 hours ago, Xenon said:

You mean this? LOOOOL that's not going to happen. 

 

 

 

This is too crazy LOOOOL can you imagine it being 12 degrees in Lafayette, Louisiana even colder than Alberta and Saskatchewan? hahahahaha

I'm not a weather guy so I'm not that smart but would you be able to explain to me how this GFS model says we'll be like 42 on Wednesday morning but Weather Channel says 27 for a low that morning?  And also how is it that this Euro model thinks that it will be colder in Brownsville than in southern Manitoba?  Like someone out there somewhere has to be smarter than that right?

[Xenon]

27 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

I'm not a weather guy so I'm not that smart but would you be able to explain to me how this GFS model says we'll be like 42 on Wednesday morning but Weather Channel says 27 for a low that morning?  And also how is it that this Euro model thinks that it will be colder in Brownsville than in southern Manitoba?  Like someone out there somewhere has to be smarter than that right?

Idk I just look at the models like you haha. But I've heard that even the people at the local NWS Houston office have no idea what's actually going to happen. Apparently all of the models and predictions are diverging and it's an absolute crapshoot for now🤣. Maybe it'll change in a day or two but they've kind of retracted their previous predictions, evaded any hard numbers, and settled with a 10 degree spread in what the actual lows will be. 

[TropicsEnjoyer]

11 hours ago, Xenon said:

Forecast keeps getting warmer and warmer 😊The NWS forecast minimum for Houston is now "only" 28F. 

I'll definitely take snow over freezing rain though. I remember several snow events just below/at freezing in Houston that didn't really do any lasting damage to tender vegetation. Freezing rain on the other hand causes leaf breakage and potential problems when it gets into the crown of palms. 

My favorite snow pics...royals and coconuts covered in snow in 2017 and 2004 snow events in far south TX/NE Mexico.  The plants were not seriously harmed. Hard to believe it did not snow there for over 100 years, but now already 3 times this century 😆. (photos from old Palm Society of South Texas website and pulled from IG)

 

coconuts, royals, and snow are something would never expect in the same picture 😂