Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[ahosey01]

Well selfishly even the Euro model is no longer expecting me to freeze down here which is good.  It seems to think Houston will be like 11F which I just don't buy.

[Subtropical LIS]

Looking at the outputs this morning...it's still looking like most of Texas will see close to zonal lows. As far as the precip (sleet/rain/snow).... it looks like any snow/sleet will be north of I-10. It looks like south I-10 would be a mix or rain. The cold snap is still looking to be in and out fast. NWS Houston is forecasting Tue morning to be the coldest (21 - 23 F) with a brief mix of sleet/rain. By Thur and Fri highs (while still below normal) will get back to near 50 F....and might be nearing 70 F by early the following week:

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile stayed over in Florida Keys last few days. 73 F here and very breezy. Live Cam shows palms:

https://www.oceankey.com/key-west-webcam/?utm_source=Fla-Keys.com&utm_medium=WebcamLink&utm_campaign=StreamingLink&utm_cam=mallory-square

 

 

 

[ChrisA]

I’m just wondering if all these awful low temps forecasted for Tuesday night are predicated on the ground being covered in ice or snow? If for some reason the ground were to remain bare I think that would help bring those low temps up, or if we could get a breeze or even low clouds!?! Worth hoping for.  The other nights don’t look too bad in San Antonio. No days at or below freezing is also I nice change from the cold spells of the last several years.  Let’s see if that pans out.  

 

 

[Xenon]

Well the latest GFS is looking optimistic! Yes I'm going to start latching on to every forecast that doesn't have Houston at 12F on Wednesday morning. At this point I'm not sure which is more delusional. Rage won't begin to describe how I'll feel if Houston ends up colder than Dallas and most of Oklahoma . Yes the physics check out but this ridiculous, 6-7 degrees below the average zonal low is not close to the zonal low. 

Drove all night from MS yesterday to prepare my tropical palm bed in Houston today. The queens, Bismarckia, citrus, etc will all have to fend for themselves.  I'm prepared for 23-25F...if it gets to 18, 15, 11F whatver....just going to mentally check out for a while to be honest. There's never been such a continous string of annual cold here like this, absolute trash. 

[Mazat]

10 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Well the latest GFS is looking optimistic! Yes I'm going to start latching on to every forecast that doesn't have Houston at 12F on Wednesday morning. At this point I'm not sure which is more delusional. Rage won't begin to describe how I'll feel if Houston ends up colder than Dallas and most of Oklahoma . Yes the physics check out but this ridiculous, 6-7 degrees below the average zonal low is not close to the zonal low. 

Drove all night from MS yesterday to prepare my tropical palm bed in Houston today. The queens, Bismarckia, citrus, etc will all have to fend for themselves.  I'm prepared for 23-25F...if it gets to 18, 15, 11F whatver....just going to mentally check out for a while to be honest. There's never been such a continous string of annual cold here like this, absolute trash. 

hope for you and the others that it stays in th

 

17 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Well the latest GFS is looking optimistic! Yes I'm going to start latching on to every forecast that doesn't have Houston at 12F on Wednesday morning. At this point I'm not sure which is more delusional. Rage won't begin to describe how I'll feel if Houston ends up colder than Dallas and most of Oklahoma . Yes the physics check out but this ridiculous, 6-7 degrees below the average zonal low is not close to the zonal low. 

Drove all night from MS yesterday to prepare my tropical palm bed in Houston today. The queens, Bismarckia, citrus, etc will all have to fend for themselves.  I'm prepared for 23-25F...if it gets to 18, 15, 11F whatver....just going to mentally check out for a while to be honest. There's never been such a continous string of annual cold here like this, absolute trash. 

i hope for you and the others that the temperatures don't drop so low that it harms the palms in any way. mentally switching off is a good idea anyway.
the last time i lost my phoenix canariensis despite active protection, i really needed it. it's like waiting for spring to finally come ... here too, although it's still moderate here 

[_nevi]

15 hours ago, Chester B said:

This is garbage. Now they’re saying low of 19 and Tuesday is not going above freezing. 
So we live in a subtropical climate but can’t grow subtropical plants anymore?  I’m not protecting. If it dies then it’s permanently going on the no plant list. Between the weather in Oregon the last few years and now this the last two here, I have to admit I’m about done.  If the summer heat doesn’t kill it, then the winter cold will. I guess we’ll be staring at bronzed off palms for the next few months for the ones that make it. I think they need to update the growing zone maps based on only the last 10 years going forward. Too much rapid change. 

Who is they?

I don't really pay attention to any local news forecasts, honestly. I do enjoy reading NWS discussions for insight, but I check updates on weather forums regarding model outputs.

I think the models that give Houston cold temps are doing it because of snowfall + radiational cooling. But, there's two things to watch closely regarding this event:

• For many models, sleet gets grouped with snow.  So, if precipitation is more sleet, then the snowfall accumulation + resultant radiational cooling temps would be overdone.
   
• So far, 12z runs (GFS, NAM, RGEM) have been running slower with the trough. So while this would make Tuesday an overall colder day ... the slower movement would also be helpful in maintaining the cloud cover that inhibits radiational cooling.  For example, the lows are much milder across Houston area on 12z GFS compared to the 06z GFS for this reason.

 

[_nevi]

33 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Well the latest GFS is looking optimistic! Yes I'm going to start latching on to every forecast that doesn't have Houston at 12F on Wednesday morning. At this point I'm not sure which is more delusional. Rage won't begin to describe how I'll feel if Houston ends up colder than Dallas and most of Oklahoma . Yes the physics check out but this ridiculous, 6-7 degrees below the average zonal low is not close to the zonal low. 

Drove all night from MS yesterday to prepare my tropical palm bed in Houston today. The queens, Bismarckia, citrus, etc will all have to fend for themselves.  I'm prepared for 23-25F...if it gets to 18, 15, 11F whatver....just going to mentally check out for a while to be honest. There's never been such a continous string of annual cold here like this, absolute trash. 

The ideal evolution would have been the 18z ICON from Friday (trough moved very fast east by afternoon, only wintry precip was marginal coastal event/overnight, so temps recovered well by afternoon).

With a farther west/slower the trough, it would make Tuesday an overall colder day (afternoon may not get above freezing). However, the slower trough movement would also maintain more cloud cover, inhibiting radiational cooling and preventing temps from tanking (even regardless of precip type). That is what this latest 12zGFS run shows.

Even with eastward movement, that could be fine as long as there's less positive tilt/broader (as with 12ZNAM). Less positive tilt may delay clearing, while broader trough may keep precip as sleet (which, again, would limit radiational cooling).

 

[Ivanos1982]

The ECMFW IFS is now putting Houston at 12... it is saying we will get 3 inches of snow... brace yourselves everyone. I will buy more mulch to cover my palms ugh 12F would be lower than what we had Feb 2021. Honestly I dont think mulch will do any good at that point as the ground is likely to freeze anyway. So I guess our tropicals and plants are just gonna get wiped out.

[Xenon]

9 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

The ECMFW IFS is now putting Houston at 12... it is saying we will get 3 inches of snow... brace yourselves everyone. I will buy more mulch to cover my palms ugh 12F would be lower than what we had Feb 2021. Honestly I dont think mulch will do any good at that point as the ground is likely to freeze anyway. So I guess our tropicals and plants are just gonna get wiped out.

This has got to be the biggest model divergence in history, they are going crazy 🤣. GFS wants 30F and ECMFW wants 12F

[Allen]

3 hours ago, ChrisA said:

I’m just wondering if all these awful low temps forecasted for Tuesday night are predicated on the ground being covered in ice or snow? If for some reason the ground were to remain bare I think that would help bring those low temps up, or if we could get a breeze or even low clouds!?! Worth hoping for.  The other nights don’t look too bad in San Antonio. No days at or below freezing is also I nice change from the cold spells of the last several years.  Let’s see if that pans out.  

 

 

Yes the snow cover is what can make it colder.

[Ivanos1982]

16 minutes ago, Xenon said:

This has got to be the biggest model divergence in history, they are going crazy 🤣. GFS wants 30F and ECMFW wants 12F

Houston is a very hostile place to grow tropical plants. I was not aware of how bad it is. I thought it would be better than San Antonio or even El Paso. My washingtonias in El Paso never got wiped like they did in Houston.

[Xenon]

4 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

Houston is a very hostile place to grow tropical plants. I was not aware of how bad it is. I thought it would be better than San Antonio or even El Paso. My washingtonias in El Paso never got wiped like they did in Houston.

Hopefully this all some kind of bad dream and we stay above 22F 😭

[Las Palmas Norte]

11 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

...Extremely dry summers, tons of mosquitoes, then these disgusting winters. Its rinse and repeat. Youd think the mosquitoes would be gone with these cold blasts but no they still come back even worse. ...

I have a brother in Saskatchewan, Canada. Well known for cold in the winter. I was there one summer (1993) and man alive where those mosquitos vicious.

[Las Palmas Norte]

You're not alone. Juneau, Alaska is cold too.

 

[Meangreen94z]

18 hours ago, Chester B said:

This is garbage. Now they’re saying low of 19 and Tuesday is not going above freezing. 
So we live in a subtropical climate but can’t grow subtropical plants anymore?  I’m not protecting. If it dies then it’s permanently going on the no plant list. Between the weather in Oregon the last few years and now this the last two here, I have to admit I’m about done.  If the summer heat doesn’t kill it, then the winter cold will. I guess we’ll be staring at bronzed off palms for the next few months for the ones that make it. I think they need to update the growing zone maps based on only the last 10 years going forward. Too much rapid change. 

Don’t give up just yet. Most of your yard will end up being ok anyway, but just view protecting the borderline plants as another day in the yard. I’ll be protecting 2 yards to the extent that I can. As you mentioned my yard outside Austin will have milder low temperatures than Pearland. Eventually we will hit a mild winter span and you will have an established yard to enjoy.

[palmnut-fry]

Cold & Dry for Dallas, a classic. zone 8 err 9 lowest temps but key being it has been chilly (already has gotten down to low 20s° so chancing doing any covering except a Butia in a 7 gal pot! 

Trust me, we had a bizarrely mild fall and just now getting "fall color" on my Chinese Pear tree that was destroyed last Spring by a storm. I'll take this winter's chill so far! Just a fluke Houston is worse off, dang🥶

Fingers crossed Galveston spared too🤞❄️🌴❄️

[_nevi]

1 hour ago, Xenon said:

Hopefully this all some kind of bad dream and we stay above 22F 😭

Yep, there is nothing guaranteed, model outputs are not definitive forecasts.

Most important is to look for trends, especially with various model suites (while also taking into account their respective biases).

e.g. EURO model might be underestimating "warm nose", so it's forecasting "snow output" (and resultant radiational cooling) on what could otherwise be a sleet event.

e.g. H5 trends also important. Look at difference between 06zGFS and 12zGFS. Trends in that direction would prevent the coldest lows, regardless of snow cover.

 

[_nevi]

1 hour ago, Ivanos1982 said:

Houston is a very hostile place to grow tropical plants. I was not aware of how bad it is. I thought it would be better than San Antonio or even El Paso. My washingtonias in El Paso never got wiped like they did in Houston.

It'd just be more happenstance/bad-luck than anything else. That's because it'd have to demonstrate that these problems uniquely affect Houston over the other places in the state.

As mentioned before, singular model outputs are not definitve forecasts — it's all about timing, H5 patterns, precip amounts/type, etc.

[Ivanos1982]

34 minutes ago, _nevi said:

It'd just be more happenstance/bad-luck than anything else. That's because it'd have to demonstrate that these problems uniquely affect Houston over the other places in the state.

As mentioned before, singular model outputs are not definitve forecasts — it's all about timing, H5 patterns, precip amounts/type, etc.

bad luck for four years in a row of these temps? that has to be crazy. Not to mention the summer droughts have been absolutely terrible. My palms and plants look worse than in an abandoned house. The only plant that looked good was my bougainvillea and my birds of paradise but they havent grown much. 

[Swolte]

Looks like models are converging on teens (F) for College Station. If it actually stays 16F, I am happy, but my experience with this pattern is to subtract about 5F for my yard (I'll take a screen from a local station). Looks like no break for my part of Texas (at least the more east side) this year as well... big bummer! Will end up with damage and low growth for another year on palms. On the bright side, I probably won't lose any, even if we go down to 11F.

I spent the afternoon throwing frost cloths around. I decided to not protect some of the larger stuff so it will at least generate some data (may change my mind, I have a large roll of frost cloth unopened).

 

[Ivanos1982]

7 minutes ago, Swolte said:

Looks like models are converging on teens (F) for College Station. If it actually stays 16F, I am happy, but my experience with this pattern is to subtract about 5F for my yard (I'll take a screen from a local station). Looks like no break for my part of Texas (at least the more east side) this year as well... big bummer! Will end up with damage and low growth for another year on palms. On the bright side, I probably won't lose any, even if we go down to 11F.

I spent the afternoon throwing frost cloths around. I decided to not protect some of the larger stuff so it will at least generate some data (may change my mind, I have a large roll of frost cloth unopened).

 

I am bringing some plants in today but Im not covering anything until the winds calm down. Usually before these fronts we get nasty winds that blow all the covers open or away.

[_nevi]

59 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

bad luck for four years in a row of these temps? that has to be crazy. Not to mention the summer droughts have been absolutely terrible. My palms and plants look worse than in an abandoned house. The only plant that looked good was my bougainvillea and my birds of paradise but they havent grown much. 

I mentioned "bad luck" because this particular cold snap is not like 2021's where it was "wall-to-wall" cold. Instead, this setup is a lot more "fickle", so there are many more variables to account for — the timing regarding H5 pattern (affects cloud cover), as well as 850mb "warm nosing" (which can make precip fall as sleet instead of snow, limiting accumulations and resultant radiational cooling impacts). associated not just with snowfall, but also timing regarding H5 pattern, and 850mb (for warm nosing).

Even with a snowfall, the heaviest amounts ares impossible to determine. It's much like how rainfall forecast amounts can shift depending on position of low pressure (e.g. whether from tropical cyclones, or low pressure, etc).

For example, look at the latest 18zNAM model compared to the 12z EURO output. Compare the H5 (500mb) position and 850mb temps, and you'll see where the differences come from (and how that translates to temp outcomes). That would show what is more/less ideal.

As for drought, that would be more of a technicality — by definition, drought would be abnormally low precip for a given location. If most of Texas is dry on average, then the "dryness" would be normal (hence "not drought"). Nevertheless, the drought patterns are more synoptic scale, not just singular to Houston — I'm not fully sure what determines summer drought patterns, whether its topographically favored via mountains to the west (in Mexico and USA through New Mexico and Colorado), or if it's more an artifact from nationwide/planterary jetstream patterns.

[Xenon]

Wine break as I continue to pile on the apocalypse level protection. Feeling so deflated and running on the last ounce of care. I really can't take another 10 degree below average winter anytime soon. 

I'm about to chop off the Archontophoenix leaves and wrap the trunk/bud with whatever material I have left. But will it even do any good at this point? 😭 I used up most of the material on the Cyphophoenix, given it only grows about 3 leaves a year. I'll be devastated if it dies, was hoping for at least another 2 or 3 years with it 

[Xenon]

Maybe this offers a bit of solace or hope lol. The short range forecasts (NAM 12km) are still keeping the snow away

[LakeEriePalms]

Meant to reply a few days ago and this won’t go away (replying to someone) 
 

Anyways it’s wild to see winter storm watches from

Houston to Florida. 
 

lowest here will be about -4F early next week. 

On 1/16/2025 at 1:30 PM, Xenon said:

 

[Allen]

Those of you in Texas have time to order supplies (Amazon) to protect for Tuesday if you hurry?  If you need any ideas let me know.  

[Chester B]

Thanks for all the good detailed info everyone. I’ve come to peace with what happens, it’s just so hard when it’s been year after year.

I brought my frost cloth with me and have a few frost bags.  I’ll cover the citrus as they are all small. The Bismarckia is so big I’m not sure how I’m going to protect it. I’ll wrap my two smaller queens and that’s it. I’m now glad I didn’t get as many things planted as I had hoped this year. Everything potted is in the garage, there’s over a hundred palms in here with most being Sabals, Trachycarpus and Butia and Butia hybrids. 

[UK_Palms]

7 hours ago, ChrisA said:

I’m just wondering if all these awful low temps forecasted for Tuesday night are predicated on the ground being covered in ice or snow? If for some reason the ground were to remain bare I think that would help bring those low temps up, or if we could get a breeze or even low clouds!?! Worth hoping for.  The other nights don’t look too bad in San Antonio. No days at or below freezing is also I nice change from the cold spells of the last several years.  Let’s see if that pans out.  

4 hours ago, Allen said:

Yes the snow cover is what can make it colder.

 

I remember during the 22/23 winter over here, some places had a bit of snow down south and ended up having a 15F night as a result. This is what stung Heathrow airport when it went down to 16F back then, recording the coldest January night in 35 years.

Whereas other nearby areas that didn't have any snow cover didn't dip below 22-23F. So there was a difference of 7-8F across a few miles and it was purely due to whether an area had laying snow on the ground or not during a night with clear skies.

It can knock your potential minimum temps down by another 10F. So a setup that may have only produced a 20-25F night can instead produce a 10-15F night instead with laying snow cover, since the rate of radiative cooling is almost doubled due to the snow's reflective properties, which increases the heat loss/transfer upwards on a clear night.

Contrary to what I have heard people say in the past, snow does not benefit you during a freeze. It will bring added moisture problems making it a wet-freeze and it will increase the likelihood of having a very, very cold night during an event, should you get clear skies and laying snow cover.

[Allen]

7 minutes ago, Chester B said:

Thanks for all the good detailed info everyone. I’ve come to peace with what happens, it’s just so hard when it’s been year after year.

I brought my frost cloth with me and have a few frost bags.  I’ll cover the citrus as they are all small. The Bismarckia is so big I’m not sure how I’m going to protect it. I’ll wrap my two smaller queens and that’s it. I’m now glad I didn’t get as many things planted as I had hoped this year. Everything potted is in the garage, there’s over a hundred palms in here with most being Sabals, Trachycarpus and Butia and Butia hybrids. 

 

I couldn't find a pic or vid of your Bismarkia but it is probably protectable if under 10' tall

[Keys6505]

I dunno guys, the plastic wrapped telephone pole look in the middle of the yard is growing on me.  Spent the day protecting the weaker stuff.  I did Xmas lights, blanket, and plastic over 2 Majesties, a small B. Clara, a small C. Alba, small Acoelorraphe Wrightii, Chamaedorea Costiricana, Chamaedorea Tepejilote and a Phoenix Rupicola.  Also protected my non-palmy Brachychiton Rupestris just because I'd like to try to keep some of the size it put on this summer.  Going to tent the Rhapis and Engleri tomorrow with a reptile heat bulb under.  Some other smaller palms got upside down ceramic planters with Xmas lights underneath like the Chuniophoenix Nana, Licuala Fordiana, and Lanonia Calciphila.  I had a new shed built over the summer with a ton of windows and a heater specifically to give me a place to stash everything during events like this so I got that all loaded up too.  Luckily it was beautiful out today and I didn't have anything else going on so I had to time to take care of everything.  Hope for the best!

[Meangreen94z]

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

Thanks for all the good detailed info everyone. I’ve come to peace with what happens, it’s just so hard when it’s been year after year.

I brought my frost cloth with me and have a few frost bags.  I’ll cover the citrus as they are all small. The Bismarckia is so big I’m not sure how I’m going to protect it. I’ll wrap my two smaller queens and that’s it. I’m now glad I didn’t get as many things planted as I had hoped this year. Everything potted is in the garage, there’s over a hundred palms in here with most being Sabals, Trachycarpus and Butia and Butia hybrids. 

The fronds on your Bismarckia are going to burn regardless. I would defoliate the palm and wrap the trunk. They grow so fast you’ll be happy by the end of summer you saved it. 

[cracker23]

first time poster.   can't be too careful.  good luck to you all

[Las Palmas Norte]

^^^ There's some real dedication. ^^^

[cracker23]

one more

[Las Palmas Norte]

That's awesome!!! Making the best of a bad situation. Great stuff man.

[cracker23]

1 minute ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

That's awesome!!! Making the best of a bad situation. Great stuff man.

thank you.   not cheap, but I guess it's worth it?  haha

[Las Palmas Norte]

3 minutes ago, cracker23 said:

thank you.   not cheap, but I guess it's worth it?  haha

Much like regular engine oil changes, it's much cheaper than a new engine.

[SailorBold]

8 minutes ago, cracker23 said:

thank you.   not cheap, but I guess it's worth it?  haha

Did you winterize your pool??

[SailorBold]

It's going to be bad enough here in Abq..but.. the saving grace is that it appears there won't be any precip.. or cloud cover.. so should be sunny out..

Short duration..

[cracker23]

7 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

Did you winterize your pool??

no, just will keep the pump running through the cold.   if we lose power will drain pumps and filter.   hopefully in Houston we will just have the bad stuff for 36 hrs or less....so power should not go out???