Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[ahosey01]

This is what they're saying for us over on the Weather Channel's website:

[MarcusH]

What did I get myself into ? I grew up with cold winters that get down to around 0°F almost every winter. I should be laughing at you all . If it wouldn't be for my hobby I would not care at all. Man, these winters in Texas are BULLSHIT . Worst place to grow some cool palms. What's next winter going to be like?  Every year the reset button gets pushed.  

[_nevi]

6 hours ago, Xenon said:

Maybe this offers a bit of solace or hope lol. The short range forecasts (NAM 12km) are still keeping the snow away

Yes, that's because of the warm nose, which often shows up on short range models that globals often don't detect. If that stays strong, then the "snow" falls as sleet.

As mentioned before, also need to watch H5 patterns as that is important for cloud cover (and any radiational cooling).

[_nevi]

22 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

What did I get myself into ? I grew up with cold winters that get down to around 0°F almost every winter. I should be laughing at you all . If it wouldn't be for my hobby I would not care at all. Man, these winters in Texas are BULLSHIT . Worst place to grow some cool palms. What's next winter going to be like?  Every year the reset button gets pushed.  

There are two more days for model watching to see if anything changes. Hopefully it's for the better.

[Xenon]

The Houston that lives in my mind and memory

 

The nightmare of the last 4 winters and soon to be fifth 

[MarcusH]

17 minutes ago, Xenon said:

The Houston that lives in my mind and memory

 

The nightmare of the last 4 winters and soon to be fifth 

They should update the hardiness zone map next year again. It's absolutely misleading for any new palm grower.  

[Ivanos1982]

1 hour ago, MarcusH said:

What did I get myself into ? I grew up with cold winters that get down to around 0°F almost every winter. I should be laughing at you all . If it wouldn't be for my hobby I would not care at all. Man, these winters in Texas are BULLSHIT . Worst place to grow some cool palms. What's next winter going to be like?  Every year the reset button gets pushed.  

I get you man I also have been moving further and further south to avoid cold weather and just CANNOT get away from it. Sometimes I feel like a failure for not moving to Florida. I'm thinking about it still but the problem is Florida is only actually warm from Tampa to the south and it is expensive. For what I own here in Texas I would have to seriously downgrade to live in Florida. I've been thinking about the finances and unless I win the lottery I'm gonna have to live in a much smaller and older home or apartment. Houston is cheap. San Antonio is also affordable. Both Florida and California are expensive if you want nice. The reason is that so many people move further south in search of warm weather. You would be surprised how many people hate snow. I grew up in the mountains of New Mexico so I get the snow hate. It can get annoying quickly. In Texas you can have nice and not spend a fortune as things are cheap here. I found a beautiful home in Houston for a great price back in 2016. I live here now and I have a gorgeous garden full of palms that will also have to start form zero after this mess. At least my house is beautiful though. It is like this every year now and will probably continue this way. Alaska and Siberia are warm and that artic cold air is breaking and leaking down all the way to here. I thought about Mexico but they are also freezing in areas that didn't freeze before. The cold is sinking so low it goes almost all the way down to Mexico city. I guess our only choices are to just wait and see what happens. There are lot of us on the same boat. I know many people in Houston who are terrified of this front. Two friends of mine lost a lot of money with busted pipes in Feb 2021. Their rooms are still not finished.

[Chester B]

7 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

I get you man I also have been moving further and further south to avoid cold weather and just CANNOT get away from it.

I started in Canada, I keep moving further south and still get burnt. I should’ve taken the job I was offered in Sydney, Australia many years ago. 

[Ivanos1982]

1 minute ago, Chester B said:

I started in Canada, I keep moving further south and still get burnt. I should’ve taken the job I was offered in Sydney, Australia many years ago. 

damn! Well after this, hopefully winter will be done and we can start with some chamaedorea radicallis. I have a bunch of seedlings I planted but only about 8 survived. They look like grasses now... with the drought this summer, many of my plants look like they need to be trashed. Hopefully you have better luck with urs.

[Chester B]

5 hours ago, Meangreen94z said:

The fronds on your Bismarckia are going to burn regardless. I would defoliate the palm and wrap the trunk. They grow so fast you’ll be happy by the end of summer you saved it. 

I was considering removing some of them to try and make it easier to wrap. It’s about my height now. Thanks for the advice. 
 

 

[Xenon]

18 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

They should update the hardiness zone map next year again. It's absolutely misleading for any new palm grower.  

As soon as they do that it'll go back to being mild (Murphy's Law). Maybe that's what we need.

I've finished up wrapping the zone pushing bed. Ironically it looks like the normal stuff is getting set way back or wiped. Hope next winter is average. Seems like mild is asking too much at this point 😭 

My parents planted a little Livistona chinensis in the late 90s and it grew great for the first 20 years of its life. Lately it keeps getting defoliated. It's the trunk you see sticking out of the covers. 

[Chester B]

2 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

damn! Well after this, hopefully winter will be done and we can start with some chamaedorea radicallis. I have a bunch of seedlings I planted but only about 8 survived. They look like grasses now... with the drought this summer, many of my plants look like they need to be trashed. Hopefully you have better luck with urs.

Time will tell I suppose. Lots of Sabals in the garage waiting to be planted next year. At least those won’t let me down, I hope …

 

[Xenon]

11 minutes ago, Chester B said:

Time will tell I suppose. Lots of Sabals in the garage waiting to be planted next year. At least those won’t let me down, I hope …

 

I'm starting to worry about the Sabal causiarium and S. guatemalensis out front....probably not dying but maybe looking very ugly. Ugh

I managed to put a heavy blanket over the Bismarckia just to keep out snow and ice. There's still some chance it only gets to the low-mid 20s. I'm about out of material to cover anything else. Fingers crossed 

[MarcusH]

42 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

I get you man I also have been moving further and further south to avoid cold weather and just CANNOT get away from it. Sometimes I feel like a failure for not moving to Florida. I'm thinking about it still but the problem is Florida is only actually warm from Tampa to the south and it is expensive. For what I own here in Texas I would have to seriously downgrade to live in Florida. I've been thinking about the finances and unless I win the lottery I'm gonna have to live in a much smaller and older home or apartment. Houston is cheap. San Antonio is also affordable. Both Florida and California are expensive if you want nice. The reason is that so many people move further south in search of warm weather. You would be surprised how many people hate snow. I grew up in the mountains of New Mexico so I get the snow hate. It can get annoying quickly. In Texas you can have nice and not spend a fortune as things are cheap here. I found a beautiful home in Houston for a great price back in 2016. I live here now and I have a gorgeous garden full of palms that will also have to start form zero after this mess. At least my house is beautiful though. It is like this every year now and will probably continue this way. Alaska and Siberia are warm and that artic cold air is breaking and leaking down all the way to here. I thought about Mexico but they are also freezing in areas that didn't freeze before. The cold is sinking so low it goes almost all the way down to Mexico city. I guess our only choices are to just wait and see what happens. There are lot of us on the same boat. I know many people in Houston who are terrified of this front. Two friends of mine lost a lot of money with busted pipes in Feb 2021. Their rooms are still not finished.

Well let's be honest ! We all love palms but if you really think about it,  is it really worth the financial sacrifice to move to a place that allows you to grow the palms that you desire but you live pay check to pay check ? Try to buy a house on the California coast.  If you're a multi millionaire I guess there's nothing to worry about but for most of us hard working people,  not a chance. Florida is also dealing with a lot of BS right now.  Texas is cheap I get it . We can all plant Sabal Palmettos/Mexicana and call it a day . Hmmm.  Is that it? I'm not giving up on palms , the majority I have are Wash. Filifera. I expect them to be fine. They better be or I will rip them out of the ground before it warms up and replace them with Sabals . Lol forget about Queen palms OMG  that's a wishful thinking.  

[MarcusH]

38 minutes ago, Chester B said:

Time will tell I suppose. Lots of Sabals in the garage waiting to be planted next year. At least those won’t let me down, I hope …

 

I'm telling ya'll Sabals are the best palms for Texas . Ever green ! Not to worry about anything.  

27 minutes ago, Xenon said:

I'm starting to worry about the Sabal causiarium and S. guatemalensis out front....probably not dying but maybe looking very ugly. Ugh

I managed to put a heavy blanket over the Bismarckia just to keep out snow and ice. There's still some chance it only gets to the low-mid 20s. I'm about out of material to cover anything else. Fingers crossed 

I thought S. Causarium are hardy to 10 to 12f ? 

[MarcusH]

44 minutes ago, Xenon said:

As soon as they do that it'll go back to being mild (Murphy's Law). Maybe that's what we need.

I've finished up wrapping the zone pushing bed. Ironically it looks like the normal stuff is getting set way back or wiped. Hope next winter is average. Seems like mild is asking too much at this point 😭 

My parents planted a little Livistona chinensis in the late 90s and it grew great for the first 20 years of its life. Lately it keeps getting defoliated. It's the trunk you see sticking out of the covers. 

Man, I give you so much credit for always being so optimistic.  I definitely can use some of your optimism.  I'm at a point where I just want the cold to nuke my yard so I can get back to the drawing board and learn from the cold winters.  Summers getting hotter and drier and winters colder . What a good recipe for keeping all of us Texas palm growers happy.  I often get to go to Poteet and there's a place with a dozen of CIDPs I thought I would see them not defoliating this year.  It's so sad. 

[Xenon]

44 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

I'm telling ya'll Sabals are the best palms for Texas . Ever green ! Not to worry about anything.  

I thought S. Causarium are hardy to 10 to 12f ? 

The bud and survival wise sure. My area might get into the mid teens and that could burn some leaves. It really took off this year and I'd rather not see half brown leaves. Guess we'll find out 

[amh]

My official forecast is to bottom out around 16F, but I am seeing some scary dew points with no wind or cloud cover. I really hope the forecast is correct, otherwise I may see single digits again this year. I'm going to have to empty the green house tomorrow and bring everything into the house.

 

[Zone7Bpalmguy]

5 hours ago, MarcusH said:

They should update the hardiness zone map next year again. It's absolutely misleading for any new palm grower.  

The hardiness zone maps can be a joke. For myself, I look at all the historic zone maps and take the average. They've been making them since the early 1900's. That puts me in a solid zone 7B. I will always claim that, regardless of what a newest map tells me. 

[ahosey01]

I have an Adonidia that's probably getting smoked at 29F lol

[CTX Palm King]

10 hours ago, Chester B said:

Time will tell I suppose. Lots of Sabals in the garage waiting to be planted next year. At least those won’t let me down, I hope …

 

They wont… I’ve been growing two small Sabals from 5 gallon plants and never protected them for 4 winters now and they are not phased by the weather… I also have a large 10 - 15 foot sabal and never protected it. Although last year I had some fungal issues after the cold snap followed by 80 degrees followed by rain for 2 weeks. I had to treat the spear and pray. 

[SeanK]

On 1/17/2025 at 7:29 PM, Chester B said:

This is garbage. Now they’re saying low of 19 and Tuesday is not going above freezing. 
So we live in a subtropical climate but can’t grow subtropical plants anymore?  I’m not protecting. If it dies then it’s permanently going on the no plant list. Between the weather in Oregon the last few years and now this the last two here, I have to admit I’m about done.  If the summer heat doesn’t kill it, then the winter cold will. I guess we’ll be staring at bronzed off palms for the next few months for the ones that make it. I think they need to update the growing zone maps based on only the last 10 years going forward. Too much rapid change. 

Lesson Learned - Köppen is meaningless.

Great plains to the north, Rockies to the West; gotta be tough to live in Texas.

[_nevi]

So, I was looking at the latest (at time of comment) NAM 12z run, and I noticed quite the afternoon warmup. After reviewing the H5 trend, it appears that the trough/storm could be speeding up?

Looks like it might be another "way out" that I might not have considered. Because the faster it all moves, the more daytime warming would occur for Texas —that might help in melting some of the precip, and limiting radiational events. This is addition to the fact that NAM could be picking up to "warm nosing" that the global models might be missing out on (aka, more sleet instead of snow).

[_nevi]

Same thing with FV3 Highres

[_nevi]

44 minutes ago, SeanK said:

Lesson Learned - Köppen is meaningless.

Great plains to the north, Rockies to the West; gotta be tough to live in Texas.

I'm suspecting that mountains do play a role in shaping these weather patterns. If not the Rockies, then definitely all the terrain out West (Casacdes, Sierra Nevadas, etc). It's possible that they generate the troughing tendencies that shape these winter storm patterns. 

Hence, it might actually be beneficial if it were just straight Great Plains the whole way, instead of mountains to the west. The flat land would create less "friction", so won't affect upper air patterns like mountains do. The only freezes might come as a result of very deep troughing.

But, Texas could be spared from the worst this event so far trends occur like the models I posted above.

[Robbertico18]

Not looking terrible for the golden coast hoping we bottom out around 29 and everything should be fine as long as the snow holds off

 

 

[Allen]

Tip for N Florida, South Georgia, South Alabama.  It looks like you may get a rare ice storm.  Tie up fronds on small palms if possible and/or wrap frost cloth or a hand towel around spear area on vulnerable palms to avoid ice intrusion in spear. 

[Las Palmas Norte]

13 hours ago, Chester B said:

I should’ve taken the job I was offered in Sydney, Australia many years ago. 

Then you would've had to learn how to drive on the wrong side of the road, and all the lingo. 😁

[SeanK]

I notice that NOAA and local forecasts are not as severe as those on YouTube channels.

[Sabal King]

Thus far this polar vortex is a real dud and I will be thrilled if this is the last of it before Spring shows up... We started the morning at 22f are now at 35, and basically do the same thing Monday and Tuesday with an ultimate low it looks like of 20f... We hit 20.7 the last time around so really, this is a whole lot of nothing for us in NTX.  I really didn't have to wrap my BxJ or Butia even at these temps.

Stay warm everyone!

[jwitt]

Not sure I remember a snowstorm from Houston to New Orleans to Tallahassee before.  At least at the same time/storm.  

Got some weather moving in here(Central NM)with an extreme cold watch.  Been cold mornings, sunny afternoon here.  

At least winter is nearly 1/3rd over!

So far

Extreme cold watch

At least palms don't feel wind-chill!

 

[Xenon]

11 minutes ago, Sabal King said:

Thus far this polar vortex is a real dud and I will be thrilled if this is the last of it before Spring shows up... We started the morning at 22f are now at 35, and basically do the same thing Monday and Tuesday with an ultimate low it looks like of 20f... We hit 20.7 the last time around so really, this is a whole lot of nothing for us in NTX.  I really didn't have to wrap my BxJ or Butia even at these temps.

Stay warm everyone!

Yep it's "warm" in Dallas and Oklahoma meanwhile they are forecasting the low teens/single digits apocalypse from Houston to Baton Rouge 

It's unreal and cruel 

[Chester B]

22 minutes ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

Then you would've had to learn how to drive on the wrong side of the road, and all the lingo. 😁

Driving on the wrong side did something weird to my brain permanently. I had no issues doing it there but it screwed me up everytime when I came back. I had a few years where I spent a lot of time in Australia, New Zealand and Ireland, so lots of left side driving.  Even now like 10 years later I occasionally get confused thinking I’m on the wrong side. 
 

The local TV station KHOU as of an hour ago has now downgraded the temp to 14F.  I have a hard time believing that.  Another interesting note is if this snow pans out like they think it will be the second or third highest snowfall in Houston in recorded history. 

[jwitt]

Not sure I can remember winter storm watch/warnings in far south Texas. 

[Ivanos1982]

21 minutes ago, Chester B said:

Driving on the wrong side did something weird to my brain permanently. I had no issues doing it there but it screwed me up everytime when I came back. I had a few years where I spent a lot of time in Australia, New Zealand and Ireland, so lots of left side driving.  Even now like 10 years later I occasionally get confused thinking I’m on the wrong side. 
 

The local TV station KHOU as of an hour ago has now downgraded the temp to 14F.  I have a hard time believing that.  Another interesting note is if this snow pans out like they think it will be the second or third highest snowfall in Houston in recorded history. 

local tv weather forecasts often exagerate a bit as they need to compete with each other for viewership. For the Feb 2021, the weatherguy from telemundo assured everyone we would get down to 6F. He guaranteed it. And we got 15F. They are very likable people and entertaining but I dont trust their forecasts. Spacecity weather has been the best so far. I read their blogs every day. They dont have to fight for viewers so they tell it like it is. 

[Ivanos1982]

3 hours ago, _nevi said:

So, I was looking at the latest (at time of comment) NAM 12z run, and I noticed quite the afternoon warmup. After reviewing the H5 trend, it appears that the trough/storm could be speeding up?

Looks like it might be another "way out" that I might not have considered. Because the faster it all moves, the more daytime warming would occur for Texas —that might help in melting some of the precip, and limiting radiational events. This is addition to the fact that NAM could be picking up to "warm nosing" that the global models might be missing out on (aka, more sleet instead of snow).

i have noticed this as well i hope it goes fast... meanwhile Im probably going to rip my monstera from the ground. Was thinking of doing the same things for my kings but I figure I would be disturbing the roots too much. They are small enough that I could do that but not sure its the best. Will wait to see if the forecast worsens tomorrow. 

[PaPalmTrees]

As much as I don't like snow But this is beautiful

[Meangreen94z]

Harlingen, Texas is showing 26°F ,  Pearland 16°F but here West of Austin we might not break 20°F. Weird event.

I protected the palms in Pearland yesterday. Most received heater cables before wrapping . Unfortunately I didn’t give the Bismarckia heat, just defoliated and wrapped in a tarp. The low as of yesterday was 20°F before dropping today.

[_nevi]

29 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Yep it's "warm" in Dallas and Oklahoma meanwhile they are forecasting the low teens/single digits apocalypse from Houston to Baton Rouge 

It's unreal and cruel 

 

4 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

i have noticed this as well i hope it goes fast... meanwhile Im probably going to rip my monstera from the ground. Was thinking of doing the same things for my kings but I figure I would be disturbing the roots too much. They are small enough that I could do that but not sure its the best. Will wait to see if the forecast worsens tomorrow. 

I have a hunch that the Global Models like GFS and EURO are overdoing the snowfall. The thermodynamic profiles don't make any sense when I looked at some of the outputs (especially considering that snow at sea-level is impossible at thickness levels above 540, especially if there's no dry air). The "snowfall" shown on those globals might really just be sleet/"wintry mix".

In contrast, most of the mesoscales (as of now) are more ice/wintry mix rather than snow. And even with snowfalls, the H5 pattern/surface low setup means that any axis that focuses total axis that focuses totals on Houston, Baton Rouge, etc would tend to be "drier/more suppressed" (so, not much actual totals).

Already, we can see this with the 18z NAM — surface low southward, which also took the precip field southward (along with lower totals). Notice as well daytime temp response, with all of Houston area now above freezing by afternoon (as of now).



 

[SailorBold]

1 hour ago, jwitt said:

Not sure I remember a snowstorm from Houston to New Orleans to Tallahassee before.  At least at the same time/storm.  

Got some weather moving in here(Central NM)with an extreme cold watch.  Been cold mornings, sunny afternoon here.  

At least winter is nearly 1/3rd over!

 

Im pretty sure we will drop below 10f this go around.. but I'm not covering anything..I was looking at the hourly temps and it appears it's going to be brief per se below 15f-18f.. so some kind of air drainage radiational freeze??

Will be interesting to see the extent of defoliation..with the full solar in play..ie no clouds..

Below i screenshot my weather station to compare with rr2..