Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[Las Palmas Norte]

1 hour ago, Ivanos1982 said:

local tv weather forecasts often exagerate a bit as they need to compete with each other for viewership. For the Feb 2021, the weatherguy from telemundo assured everyone we would get down to 6F. He guaranteed it. And we got 15F. They are very likable people and entertaining but I dont trust their forecasts. Spacecity weather has been the best so far. I read their blogs every day. They dont have to fight for viewers so they tell it like it is. 

Are TV news viewers that captivated by the weather that there's a competitive element? I can't quite fathom that when weather reports of such variety is available on a smart phone.

[Las Palmas Norte]

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

Driving on the wrong side did something weird to my brain permanently. I had no issues doing it there but it screwed me up everytime when I came back. I had a few years where I spent a lot of time in Australia, New Zealand and Ireland, so lots of left side driving.  Even now like 10 years later I occasionally get confused thinking I’m on the wrong side. ...

You may have a strategic defense in traffic court should the need arise. 😄

[_nevi]

Look at that suppression.

 

[Las Palmas Norte]

The perils of a frigid continental air mass.

[Xenon]

2 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

i have noticed this as well i hope it goes fast... meanwhile Im probably going to rip my monstera from the ground. Was thinking of doing the same things for my kings but I figure I would be disturbing the roots too much. They are small enough that I could do that but not sure its the best. Will wait to see if the forecast worsens tomorrow. 

The monstera will come back up 100%. I only protected the variegated ones

[Subtropical LIS]

2 hours ago, Meangreen94z said:

Harlingen, Texas is showing 26°F ,  Pearland 16°F but here West of Austin we might not break 20°F. Weird event.

I protected the palms in Pearland yesterday. Most received heater cables before wrapping . Unfortunately I didn’t give the Bismarckia heat, just defoliated and wrapped in a tarp. The low as of yesterday was 20°F before dropping today.

Seeing all these pictures of people up in Texas and other locations getting ready for the cold snap gives me a chance to see a great deal of the landscaping/palms/subtropicals in these locations.

What a nicely landscaped yard you have. Also, I'm a bit taken back how green mid winter is in this part of Texas/southern Miss, I'd expect Houston and the Gulf to be green like coastal South Carolina and coastal Georgia, but didn't realize it was that green in mid winter in Austin. Your landscape looks as green as those in north Florida. 

[Subtropical LIS]

28 minutes ago, Xenon said:

The monstera will come back up 100%. I only protected the variegated ones

The garden looks really nice. You have a good touch in creating natural looking landscapes. 

Looking tonight...they (NWS) are forecasting a low around 18 - 19 F for Houston. I'm still thinking that is about 2 - 3 F too low (my bet is lower 20's F). The one interesting thing to watch (than might help) is cloud cover Tue night.  NWS is only thinking there will be partial cleaing Tue night. This could help keep temps up.

As far as the precip (and type)...it will really be a close call. Temps are going to really struggle to get below freezing before 3 AM on Monday night/early Tue...and the precip will be in/out very fast. So it will really be a close call. 

Hope all is well. 

 

 

[Xenon]

10 minutes ago, Subtropical LIS said:

The garden looks really nice. You have a good touch in creating natural looking landscapes. 

Thanks. That's in west Houston btw, I don't garden in MS and hope not to stay there too long haha. The photos from the other poster are in Pearland, also a suburb in southeast Houston. 

[jwitt]

1 hour ago, SailorBold said:

Im pretty sure we will drop below 10f this go around.. but I'm not covering anything..I was looking at the hourly temps and it appears it's going to be brief per se below 15f-18f.. so some kind of air drainage radiational freeze??

Will be interesting to see the extent of defoliation..with the full solar in play..ie no clouds..

Below i screenshot my weather station to compare with rr2..

 

I saw 15f on my patio this morning. Not sure what the low was, but 23 houses away, it was 12f.  My highs run a bit above RR2 usually, lows pretty close.  But my temp is my patio, south facing. 

Slight east breeze  forecasted Monday night here, so not radiationial. Just arctic from the east/NE. Lucky no storm to our west!

[Xenon]

Short video from yesterday before I started wrapping. Everything had gone unprotected so far this winter...thought this was going to be the year . (sorry I didn't realize I shot it vertical till after LOL)

 

 

[Chester B]

I chickened out and protected but it’s all passive, just frost cloth.  Everything aside from the queens and the Bismarckia should be ok but because it’s their first year I covered a bunch of them. The bismarckia got some Christmas lights. Tomorrow I’m going to stuff some frost cloth into the crowns of the Washingtonia. Citrus were covered in frost cloth as well, the rest of the non palmy things will have to fend for themselves. 

[Meangreen94z]

4 hours ago, Sabal King said:

Thus far this polar vortex is a real dud and I will be thrilled if this is the last of it before Spring shows up... We started the morning at 22f are now at 35, and basically do the same thing Monday and Tuesday with an ultimate low it looks like of 20f... We hit 20.7 the last time around so really, this is a whole lot of nothing for us in NTX.  I really didn't have to wrap my BxJ or Butia even at these temps.

Stay warm everyone!

That would depend on what region of Texas you are in. Houston will be colder than Dallas or Austin.

[_nevi]

21 minutes ago, Meangreen94z said:

That would depend on what region of Texas you are in. Houston will be colder than Dallas or Austin.

Also would depend on how the event plays out. NAMs so far aren't the worst for Houston. (knock on wood)

 

[Chester B]

I still am having a hard time with how this is possible?  Like a bullseye right on Houston. ABC 13 right now is saying 3-6” of snow for Houston proper and as you get outside of Houston limits the snow drops off. So much for UHI.  

[Victor likes palms]

Were looking at a 85 percent chance of snow Tuesday and a low of 21 degrees Wednesday. What is even the move when it snows? All I have done is mounded up mulch around the trunk of my plants. Is that cold enough to consider wrapping my plants with incandescent lights. I mainly looking to protect my guava, persian lime, and papaya. I didn’t expect this cold😭.

[ahosey01]

Down here in the RGV it's kind of starting to look like not much.  Models are all starting to look the same.  Somewhere between 30F and 33F at my place.  Cold, but not nuts.

[UK_Palms]

The cold air in the eastern half of the US is going to flare up the jet stream and send a powerful storm with hurricane force winds in our direction. I am seeing 150-160mph winds off the Atlantic coast later next week. Maybe 130mph at landfall. Not ideal at all.

 

Also I have seen more people online (specifically on Twitter/X) who are saying that snow will protect their plants and garden. What they don't understand is that it will turn a dry freeze into a wet freeze for starters, and it will also lower temps by a good 5-10F under clear skies with laying snow cover. It could potentially even lower the temp gradient by 15F even.

The coldest nights always happen with snow cover. I believe that is why Houston is seeing the coldest temps out of the big cities in TX, because they will have a decent amount of laying snow cover, followed by a clear night. All of my coldest ever temperatures here have coincided with snow on the ground and then a night with clear skies.So go figure.

[ahosey01]

3 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

The cold air in the eastern half of the US is going to flare up the jet stream and send a powerful storm with hurricane force winds in our direction. I am seeing 150-160mph winds off the Atlantic coast later next week. Maybe 130mph at landfall. Not ideal at all.

 

Also I have seen more people online (specifically on Twitter/X) who are saying that snow will protect their plants and garden. What they don't understand is that it will turn a dry freeze into a wet freeze for starters, and it will also lower temps by a good 5-10F under clear skies with laying snow cover. It could potentially even lower the temp gradient by 15F even.

The coldest nights always happen with snow cover. I believe that is why Houston is seeing the coldest temps out of the big cities in TX, because they will have a decent amount of laying snow cover, followed by a clear night. All of my coldest ever temperatures here have coincided with snow on the ground and then a night with clear skies.So go figure.

I think active overnight snowfall isn't bad depending on timing of when things warm up.  I think when it's really bad is when the snow stops and the cloud cover clears up overnight.

[Ivanos1982]

So I mulched mulched mulched as high as gravity allowed and covered the plants I care about. My kings, queens and raveneas! I ripped out my monstera from the ground. I know it will come back if i leave it but I want it to be big again next season. Also ripped out my areca palms. Didnt cover the elephant ears but mulched the bulb area... meh dont really care for them. I only mulched the bottom of the bougainvillea and left the rest uncovered, same with hibiscus. They grew too big anyway. The bananas are on their own... not worth even protecting as they do grow back. Good luck everyone. Lets hope those lows on wed dont go too low and lets hope we dont get freezing rain on electrical lines so we can keep our power on. 

[Swolte]

For now, the models have me in the low 20s, however, I am not taking much for granted.  

21 hours ago, MarcusH said:

I thought S. Causarium are hardy to 10 to 12f ? 

Yes, in my experience, they're not too far off from Palmetto. I had no damage from 12F last year. Not even fronds. I am actually leaving mine unprotected this round. 

[CTX Palm King]

@Swolte / @MarcusH / @Chester B / @Allen….. Here’s some photos from protection methods I’ve implemented today. Some stuff is just too big to protect.

What’s wild is the temp difference between protection and no protection. Check this out…

You can see It’s 28.9 degrees outside here in New Braunfels TX… The Trachy sensor is just open next to trunk…. Tree is wrapped in mini lights but no frost cloth… but the CIDP… is anywhere from 12 - 13.5 degrees warmer. WILD…

CIDP - Mini Lights, Several Layers of Frost Cloth.

Butia / Pindo - Mini Lights and several layers of frost cloth.

Jubaea X Butia - Mini Lights and several layers of frost cloth.

Trachy - Mini Lights and frost cloth.. Partially protected.

Random Photo of my large Washy, Needle, Mediterranean, and Trachy.. Just to share.

[Ben G.]

56 minutes ago, Swolte said:

For now, the models have me in the low 20s, however, I am not taking much for granted.  

Yes, in my experience, they're not too far off from Palmetto. I had no damage from 12F last year. Not even fronds. I am actually leaving mine unprotected this round. 

I hope they are that hardy. My little one probably won't have any undamaged leaves left after the cold fronts pass. Sabals without trunks almost always come back from even full defoliation in my experience though. So, I am hopeful that my little causiarum will be fine by summer.

[Ben G.]

5 minutes ago, CTX Palm King said:

@Swolte / @MarcusH / @Chester B / @Allen….. Here’s some photos from protection methods I’ve implemented today. Some stuff is just too big to protect.

What’s wild is the temp difference between protection and no protection. Check this out…

You can see It’s 28.9 degrees outside here in New Braunfels TX… The Trachy sensor is just open next to trunk…. Tree is wrapped in mini lights but no frost cloth… but the CIDP… is anywhere from 12 - 13.5 degrees warmer. WILD…

CIDP - Mini Lights, Several Layers of Frost Cloth.

Butia / Pindo - Mini Lights and several layers of frost cloth.

Jubaea X Butia - Mini Lights and several layers of frost cloth.

Trachy - Mini Lights and frost cloth.. Partially protected.

Random Photo of my large Washy, Needle, Mediterranean, and Trachy.. Just to share.

I hope all of your palms come through unscathed. All of your palms seem hardy enough that I don't think you'll need to worry a lot. With your protection though, perhaps you can make it away without even any cosmetic damage.

[Xenon]

Will the Woodlands end up warmer than Galveston? Nothing seems to be surprising at this point. I'm hoping NOT to win the snow lottery. At least lows in the 20s still seem to be on the table for somewhere in the viewing area...

From a contact at NWS Houston:

 

[Meangreen94z]

Yeah look at the discrepancy in temperatures on Windy. North Houston is warmer than South Houston, but Galveston is 20°F warmer than Alvin or Lake Jackson. My old house in Manvel showing 12°F. As cold or colder than 2021. We’ll see what happens.

[Las Palmas Norte]

[Allen]

8 hours ago, CTX Palm King said:

@Swolte / @MarcusH / @Chester B / @Allen….. Here’s some photos from protection methods I’ve implemented today. Some stuff is just too big to protect.

What’s wild is the temp difference between protection and no protection. Check this out…

You can see It’s 28.9 degrees outside here in New Braunfels TX… The Trachy sensor is just open next to trunk…. Tree is wrapped in mini lights but no frost cloth… but the CIDP… is anywhere from 12 - 13.5 degrees warmer. WILD…

CIDP - Mini Lights, Several Layers of Frost Cloth.

Butia / Pindo - Mini Lights and several layers of frost cloth.

Jubaea X Butia - Mini Lights and several layers of frost cloth.

Trachy - Mini Lights and frost cloth.. Partially protected.

Random Photo of my large Washy, Needle, Mediterranean, and Trachy.. Just to share.

Mini lights all I’ve ever used and everyone says they don’t put out heat 

[ahosey01]

The models are all in agreement now that my house will hit approximately 30F here in Brownsville.

I'm seeing a far amount of data indicating Houston stays in mid-20s despite the snow, so hopefully you guys don't get nailed too hard.  Snow looks bad though lol

[KPoff]

17 hours ago, Sabal King said:

Thus far this polar vortex is a real dud and I will be thrilled if this is the last of it before Spring shows up... We started the morning at 22f are now at 35, and basically do the same thing Monday and Tuesday with an ultimate low it looks like of 20f... We hit 20.7 the last time around so really, this is a whole lot of nothing for us in NTX.  I really didn't have to wrap my BxJ or Butia even at these temps.

Stay warm everyone!

We still have to get through February but here in west Texas I can’t complain. We’re still having an 8a/8b winter which is fully expected. Fingers crossed nothing crazy happens in February.

[Subtropical LIS]

No matter what happens in the next 24- 36 hrs...people east of the Rockies will happy to see Climate Prediction Center is predicting this in the short term (less than 10 days). So once much of the CONUS gets through this cold snap, nothing in the extended at least into early Feb:

I'm back in CT for a bit, and it went down to 18 F last night - 1/2 mile from Long Island Sound. Needls and minors seem fine, and Washintonia's are covered.  

 

[JeskiM]

9 hours ago, Xenon said:

Will the Woodlands end up warmer than Galveston? Nothing seems to be surprising at this point. I'm hoping NOT to win the snow lottery. At least lows in the 20s still seem to be on the table for somewhere in the viewing area...

From a contact at NWS Houston:

 

I agree with that forecast.  There are two things to consider:

(1) snow / ice groundcover

(2) clear skies

The low pressure that's forming now looks like it's coming on a bit earlier than expected and will move out quicker than expected. This will cause clear skies on Tuesday night throughout the area, especially from west to east. That combined with snow cover, which there will be, will drop those temperatures.

It's looking like the norther edge of the snow line is being suppressed further south as the massive high pressure and it's associated dry air (precip limiter) continues to press southward; hence why some forecasts have the north side staying warmer tha the south side.

-Matt

 

[_nevi]

1 hour ago, ahosey01 said:

The models are all in agreement now that my house will hit approximately 30F here in Brownsville.

I'm seeing a far amount of data indicating Houston stays in mid-20s despite the snow, so hopefully you guys don't get nailed too hard.  Snow looks bad though lol

That's consistent with the overall trends that I've posted earlier, regarding faster movement of the system.

The arctic high pressure is digging down through Texas, and forcing the low pressure further offshore. This "suppression" forces the heightfield downward, so while the event for Houston features more snow/less ice in distribution ... the totals for snowfall are also diminished. Furthermore, with the low further away, the clearing/drying can happen faster, allowing warm up that can melt the snow.

Here's the latest HRRR 12z, for instance. Notice the afternoon warmup. Temps that run stay in 20s, same for NAM3k, FV3, and other mesocales that I've seen so far.

 

 

[_nevi]

14 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

I agree with that forecast.  There are two things to consider:

(1) snow / ice groundcover

(2) clear skies

The low pressure that's forming now looks like it's coming on a bit earlier than expected and will move out quicker than expected. This will cause clear skies on Tuesday night throughout the area, especially from west to east. That combined with snow cover, which there will be, will drop those temperatures.

It's looking like the norther edge of the snow line is being suppressed further south as the massive high pressure and it's associated dry air (precip limiter) continues to press southward; hence why some forecasts have the north side staying warmer tha the south side.

-Matt

 

The good news with this is that it would also allow more time for afternoon warmup/clearing — for example, the latest HRRR has everywhere in Houston area above freezing by afternoon. That could help ease off the snow cover, in turn limiting radiational impacts — models like NAM3k, HRRR, keep lows in 20s for this reason. All of it is consistent with suppression modeling trends/patterns that I've posted (as of time of writing).

[ahosey01]

15 minutes ago, _nevi said:

That's consistent with the overall trends that I've posted earlier, regarding faster movement of the system.

The arctic high pressure is digging down through Texas, and forcing the low pressure further offshore. This "suppression" forces the heightfield downward, so while the event for Houston features more snow/less ice in distribution ... the totals for snowfall are also diminished. Furthermore, with the low further away, the clearing/drying can happen faster, allowing warm up that can melt the snow.

Here's the latest HRRR 12z, for instance. Notice the afternoon warmup. Temps that run stay in 20s, same for NAM3k, FV3, and other mesocales that I've seen so far.

 

 

This graphic shows me never really getting below 33F which I'll take lol

[SailorBold]

16 hours ago, jwitt said:

 

I saw 15f on my patio this morning. Not sure what the low was, but 23 houses away, it was 12f.  My highs run a bit above RR2 usually, lows pretty close.  But my temp is my patio, south facing. 

Slight east breeze  forecasted Monday night here, so not radiationial. Just arctic from the east/NE. Lucky no storm to our west!

It's not February yet...😳...

[jwitt]

34 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

It's not February yet...😳...

True that. 

But our February event was very early.  I have never seen an zero event come later.  

November/December yes,  mid February and later no.  

I see they lowered the low to 6f in our neighborhood.  Gonna be some damage. 

I definitely will brush off snow if we get. 

Good luck!

[JeskiM]

23 minutes ago, SailorBold said:

It's not February yet...😳...

February, the 2nd half of winter, could be interesting.

I think that after this current arctic push we snap back to warmer than normal, and possibly wetter than normal, for a few weeks. 

The longwave weather pattern has been shifting westward the last few weeks.  The PNW and intermountain western US should start getting into seeing the next set of strong cold fronts. While that happens Texas can get a good thawing before winter gives another round.  However, I don't think the next round of "winter" for TX will be till late February / early March.  ... and then it will not be the bitter cold that we are seeing now

-Matt

[Mazat]

On 1/19/2025 at 4:55 AM, MarcusH said:

What did I get myself into ? I grew up with cold winters that get down to around 0°F almost every winter. I should be laughing at you all . If it wouldn't be for my hobby I would not care at all. Man, these winters in Texas are BULLSHIT . Worst place to grow some cool palms. What's next winter going to be like?  Every year the reset button gets pushed.  

MarcusH:i had already asked myself this question, although it should actually be moderate here, it is rather the opposite.
an hour's drive and then you're at lake walen and there you have usda zone 8b, sometimes even around 9a, but it's not cheap to live there either.
or three hours by car and then you're in ticino, where it's very expensive to live, unless you really have enough money.

[Mazat]

18 hours ago, Xenon said:

The monstera will come back up 100%. I only protected the variegated ones

good news

[Mazat]

1 hour ago, SailorBold said:

It's not February yet...😳...

the same story here. the same applies here. every day we hope to get one step closer ...