Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

January 22

Good point Marcus, scientists talk about the slowing of the Gulf Stream and if it may reach a tipping point causing the North Atlantic Oscillation to shut down entirely. If that happens, Europe, and the rest of the world (US included) would be screwed!

We should be happy with what we grow and enjoy the beauty they creat in our lives. God knows I love checking this forum daily and seeing the photos you all post of palms you’ve found or your beautiful gardens. 🙏

January 22

11 minutes ago, ChrisA said:

Good point Marcus, scientists talk about the slowing of the Gulf Stream and if it may reach a tipping point causing the North Atlantic Oscillation to shut down entirely. If that happens, Europe, and the rest of the world (US included) would be screwed!

We should be happy with what we grow and enjoy the beauty they creat in our lives. God knows I love checking this forum daily and seeing the photos you all post of palms you’ve found or your beautiful gardens. 🙏

I could not find better words.

January 22

Predicted low being a predictable 5F off (I gotta figure out why at some point!). It stayed at a 16F low for most of the night (I think from 3AM onwards). That is better than I had since 2021 (thus far) so its still within the 8b zone (well, not going by the recent misleading 9a designation...). Better than I feared. I did protect things with mostly a frost cloth and some stuff was unprotected and exposed to such temps for the first time. I will have some data to share in days and months (when we really find out) to come!

January 22

I just looked at the temps from Houston area to North Florida along the coast and there are going to be lots of damaged and dead palms. I see single digits hit in places. Feather palms are going to be hit hard. I think even palmetto will take frond damage.

January 22

Those lows explain the -2 in Tally for the 1899 freeze. They had snow then also so i guess thats why it dropped so bad, but the peninsula was warmer then without it too. Similar this time but without the crazy drop here to 20 or lower. Still forecasting a freeze to end the event here at 31 for saturday morning. Then spring for Florida?

January 22

9 minutes ago, Swolte said:

Predicted low being a predictable 5F off (I gotta figure out why at some point!). It stayed at a 16F low for most of the night (I think from 3AM onwards). That is better than I had since 2021 (thus far) so its still within the 8b zone (well, not going by the recent misleading 9a designation...). Better than I feared. I did protect things with mostly a frost cloth and some stuff was unprotected and exposed to such temps for the first time. I will have some data to share in days and months (when we really find out) to come!

At least the main event is now fully over.

Looking this morning at the NWS forecast for you're area, with full sunshine and warming temps each day things should get better quick. By Sunday the cold will really be a distant memory:

January 22

8 minutes ago, Allen said:

I just looked at the temps from Houston area to North Florida along the coast and there are going to be lots of damaged and dead palms. I see single digits hit in places. Feather palms are going to be hit hard. I think even palmetto will take damage.

There's definitely gonna be some record temperatures

January 22

10 hours ago, ahosey01 said:

Okay so for all the weather people on here can you explain this to me ? ....

We were at 36F-37F most of the afternoon, then dropped slowly to 34F at sundown. Once the sun went down, between 7 and 9, we dropped from 34F to 29F. There is no wind whatosever, and no cloud cover.

Based on my fairly limited understanding, this would be a radiative event and it would have to continue to drop throughout the night. After all, there is no cloud cover and no wind.

However, starting at 9, we have now begun to go up in temp and are back at 32F-33F.

How does this happen when there is no cloud cover and no wind?

Here's my take on what you observed :

If you recall the arctic airmass over the CenTX / Houston area was ~ 1 km deep (from the ground to 1 km AGL). As you move towards the edge of that airmass it becomes shallower and shallower till eventually it gets to 0 and now you are out of the airmass.

Here's a derived sounding for your area at roughly 9 PM :

At that time the airmass was extremely shallow (maybe about 0.25 km deep), only a few hundred feet deep, The thermal inversion that marks the top of the airmass is at the 1000 mb level.

The winds at that level and above have veered and are out of the SE, this is warm air advection taking place behind the surface High pressure which is sliding to the east. My guess is that the warmer air right above the very shallow edge of the arctic airmass are mixing down to the surface. Basically, that's roughly the time that the roughly the time that the arctic airmass has moved away from you and was being eroded away at the edge via mixing.

NOTE: Don't focus on those surface temps, I am focused on the large scale airmass, it's location relative to you, particularly it's edge.

Here's the Actual Brownsville sounding from this morning ... it shows the the top of the arctic airmass at 1000 mb, so you are right on the edge of it.

image.png.0c90b61649270d259fdb3fe56f0bf690.png

-Matt

January 22

New all time record lows in Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Iberia. Lafayette broke the longstanding record low of 6F in 1899!!!!

Looks like nobody is immune to record setting cold even with warmer overall temps, increased urbanization, etc....hammer always looming 😱

January 22

16 minutes ago, Allen said:

I just looked at the temps from Houston area to North Florida along the coast and there are going to be lots of damaged and dead palms. I see single digits hit in places. Feather palms are going to be hit hard. I think even palmetto will take damage.

Allen, I can tell you that Sabal Palmettos and Mexicana were literally laughing off the cold when it got down to 9f in San Antonio in 2021. It was below freezing for days with snow and freezing rain.

January 22

Ultimate low 27F in my back yard last night with light frost; 12 total hours below freezing. Saw 22F just west of McAllen on Weather Underground at like 3 in the morning. Laguna Vista hit 30F and the island never got below freezing.

Once we dropped to 29F an hour and a half after sundown I ended up wrapping some of my tender stuff, like Adonidia and my baby royal.

We'll see what's damaged in the next few days. Expect my traveler's palm will be back to the ground. I have an Archontophoenix cunninghamiana that I also assume will not like the frost. Roebelenii x rupicola hybrids are babies, so fingers crossed those are good.

We'll find out... and plant on regardless!

January 22

2 minutes ago, Xenon said:

New all time record lows in Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Iberia. Lafayette broke the longstanding record low of 6F in 1899!!!!

Looks like nobody is immune to record setting cold even with warmer overall temps, increased urbanization, etc....hammer always looming 😱

Just a joke ! I miss you're saying plant Queen palms everywhere lol

January 22

21 minutes ago, Allen said:

I just looked at the temps from Houston area to North Florida along the coast and there are going to be lots of damaged and dead palms. I see single digits hit in places. Feather palms are going to be hit hard. I think even palmetto will take damage.

It will be interesting to look at offical NWS numbers when they come in for this morning (on Fri monring)...but looking at yesterdays lows, I don't think north Florida fell that much out of zone. The freezing line seems to be way up in north Florida. Also, at least yesterday morning, many areas along the Texas coast seemed to stay in the 20's F's.

Hard to tell until NWS puts out it's numbers (offical station lows).

tmodkl6.jpg.2b46d38f938737f47b01af22bd62f51d.jpg

January 22

Wow, and way up here in Dallas 22° was it? Head scratcher but thankful we missed it again!

They say not above freezing until tomorrow in Louisiana, too. Highly unusual situation, no?

January 22

1 minute ago, ahosey01 said:

Ultimate low 27F in my back yard last night with light frost; 12 total hours below freezing. Saw 22F just west of McAllen on Weather Underground at like 3 in the morning. Laguna Vista hit 30F and the island never got below freezing.

Once we dropped to 29F an hour and a half after sundown I ended up wrapping some of my tender stuff, like Adonidia and my baby royal.

We'll see what's damaged in the next few days. Expect my traveler's palm will be back to the ground. I have an Archontophoenix cunninghamiana that I also assume will not like the frost. Roebelenii x rupicola hybrids are babies, so fingers crossed those are good.

We'll find out... and plant on regardless!

I still think it's going to be a cosmetic event for you more than anything. Envious of those lows!

January 22

1 minute ago, Subtropical LIS said:

It will be interesting to look at offical NWS numbers when they come in for this morning (on Fri monring)...but looking at yesterdays lows, I don't think north Florida fell that much out of zone. The freezing line seems to be way up in north Florida. Also, at least yesterday morning, many areas along the Texas coast seemed to stay in the 20's F's

You are posting lows for Tuesday not Wed. FL has teens and a few single digits

January 22

2 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Just a joke ! I miss you're saying plant Queen palms everywhere lol

Yeah spring 2025 the countdown. Funny I passed by a bunch of young green queens driving through that area a few days ago. RIP

January 22

5 minutes ago, Xenon said:

New all time record lows in Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Iberia. Lafayette broke the longstanding record low of 6F in 1899!!!!

Looks like nobody is immune to record setting cold even with warmer overall temps, increased urbanization, etc....hammer always looming 😱

3!! WOW

January 22

Just now, Xenon said:

I still think it's going to be a cosmetic event for you more than anything. Envious of those lows!

I will hope for this. Have some baby hyphaenes and things that I wouldn't be concerned about if they weren't tiny and only planted this year. We'll see.

One thing I'm actually glad will get roasted is my pair of Hyophorbes. They looked awful after two rainy weeks in the 50s. Gonna replace with something else that doesn't mind the cool.

January 22

6 minutes ago, Xenon said:

New all time record lows in Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Iberia. Lafayette broke the longstanding record low of 6F in 1899!!!!

Looks like nobody is immune to record setting cold even with warmer overall temps, increased urbanization, etc....hammer always looming 😱

For New Orleans...Lakefront Airport reported a low of 26.1 F....while NO International reported 23 F.

Amazing that those locations where that much colder. UHI must have somthing to do with it.

January 22

2 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Yeah spring 2025 the countdown. Funny I passed by a bunch of young green queens driving through that area a few days ago. RIP

Actually I think all of the skinny Washingtonia lining the roads there are going to kick the bucket too 😭😭

January 22

3 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Allen, I can tell you that Sabal Palmettos and Mexicana were literally laughing off the cold when it got down to 9f in San Antonio in 2021. It was below freezing for days with snow and freezing rain.

I guess these should survive, however, what does concern is that none of these palms have been hardened off or hit some state of dormancy. I never really took that notion all too seriously until we got our December freeze a few years ago. Plants were essentially dropped from a mild fall into the teens. Didn't even get that low, however, we had crepe myrtles dying left and right. Crazy. In other words, the 10F in SA, which sees regular deep freezes, may not hit as hard as in New Orleans.

January 22

1 minute ago, Subtropical LIS said:

For New Orleans...Lakefront Airport reported a low of 26.1 F....while NO International reported 23 F.

Amazing that those locations where that much colder. UHI must have somthing to do with it.

It's Lake P on a windless night saving NOLA

January 22

9 minutes ago, Swolte said:

I guess these should survive, however, what does concern is that none of these palms have been hardened off or hit some state of dormancy. I never really took that notion all too seriously until we got our December freeze a few years ago. Plants were essentially dropped from a mild fall into the teens. Didn't even get that low, however, we had crepe myrtles dying left and right. Crazy. In other words, the 10F in SA, which sees regular deep freezes, may not hit as hard as in New Orleans.

Yea I have a video on that a year ago. They were not cold acclimated which will cost them a few degrees of hardiness most likely. Prediction - Significant feather palms will spear rot and die at temps under 10-15F without owners knowing. Feather palms fully defoliated under 15F. Sabal will be frond damaged noticeably below 10F and since there are so many some small portion will die especially vulnerable newer transplants.

January 22

1 minute ago, Swolte said:

I guess these should survive, however, what does concern is that none of these palms have been hardened off or hit some state of dormancy. I never really took that notion all too seriously until we got our December freeze a few years ago. Plants were essentially dropped from a mild fall into the teens. Didn't even get that low, however, we had crepe myrtles dying left and right. Crazy. In other words, the 10F in SA, which sees regular deep freezes, may not hit as hard as in New Orleans.

Sabal mexicana will burn crispy crispy in the mid single digits. I remeber driving to College Station from NW Houston after 2021 and you started to see some tip burn to Sabal around Waller county. The mexciana even in town College Station were more than 50% burned

January 22

4 minutes ago, Allen said:

You are posting lows for Tuesday not Wed. FL has teens and a few single digits

Yes, I know, the map I posted was for yesterday morning. It's easier to look at when NWS/NOAA posts them in one big map.

Still, just looking this monring....NWS Jacksonville's lowest temp was 33 F....Tallahassee was 27 F....Apalachicola was 28 F.....etc. Perhaps tonight will be colder, but not sure.

January 22

1 minute ago, Subtropical LIS said:

Yes, I know, the map I posted was for yesterday morning. It's easier to look at when NWS/NOAA posts them in one big map.

Still, just looking this monring....NWS Jacksonville's lowest temp was 33 F....Tallahassee was 27 F....Apalachicola was 28 F.....etc. Perhaps tonight will be colder, but not sure.

We are not talking about there are we?

January 22

4 minutes ago, Swolte said:

I guess these should survive, however, what does concern is that none of these palms have been hardened off or hit some state of dormancy. I never really took that notion all too seriously until we got our December freeze a few years ago. Plants were essentially dropped from a mild fall into the teens. Didn't even get that low, however, we had crepe myrtles dying left and right. Crazy. In other words, the 10F in SA, which sees regular deep freezes, may not hit as hard as in New Orleans.

Sure that also is another factor that impacts palms. Fortunately here in our region we haven't seen this drops , it was cool for the most part since the first cold front moved in. Enough time for palms to go dormant. It seems to be that palms , at least here in SA are used to 8b winters and don't mind some 8a drops as well. Whatever died in 2021 was zone pushed anyway .

January 22

2 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Sure that also is another factor that impacts palms. Fortunately here in our region we haven't seen this drops , it was cool for the most part since the first cold front moved in. Enough time for palms to go dormant. It seems to be that palms , at least here in SA are used to 8b winters and don't mind some 8a drops as well. Whatever died in 2021 was zone pushed anyway .

Just cause a palm survives one year doesn't mean it won't die the next at the same temps and conditions. But yes you escaped the storm this go round.

January 22

The far north Florida stations look like they have been below freezing since about 2 AM local time.

This is NWS Tallahassee. They have been below freezing now for 7 hrs. tellsht.jpg.7187ff5cdd33f6294ae5977dfcf401a1.jpg

January 22

13 minutes ago, Allen said:

We are not talking about there are we?

What part of Florida were you taking about?

I didn't see any single didgit lows? Where did you see them? I would be interested to see what stations fell that low?

January 22

The low in the FL panhandle coastal area where I live was 15F. Insane.

January 22

5 minutes ago, Allen said:

Just cause a palm survives one year doesn't mean it won't die the next at the same temps and conditions. But yes you escaped the storm this go round.

You're right but in reality we don't see record lows every year . I don't see a thread to our cold hardy palms . Sabal palms are tough as nails.

January 22

14 minutes ago, Subtropical LIS said:

What part of Florida were you taking about?

I didn't see any single didgit lows? Where did you see them? I would be interested to see what stations fell that low?

Pensacola area. If you read the post I made you will see I was talking single digits along the Gulf coast not FL even though FL did dip to 9F North of the Pensacola area

January 22

I hit 15 last night per the weather station 2 doors down. Same temps as Palmageddon. I wasn't really prepared for that, was expecting 20. I'm not super concerned about the stuff that was protected with heat, but the unprotected stuff like the Decora and Mule might be an issue.

January 22

3 minutes ago, Keys6505 said:

I hit 15 last night per the weather station 2 doors down. Same temps as Palmageddon. I wasn't really prepared for that, was expecting 20. I'm not super concerned about the stuff that was protected with heat, but the unprotected stuff like the Decora and Mule might be an issue.

Mule defoliated I'd say. Spray with copper fungicide every couple weeks when it hits 65F till you see spear pushing well if it defoliates.

January 22

Here's the Month to Date Temperature Annamolly for this month.

Currently that 8th Coldest nationally since 1980.

.... maybe we should move to Maine

-Matt

image.png.0298f3613e3809eed8d12ea73d989e6b.png

January 22

Looks like some parts of LA went below zero. The lowest data point is at -6.

-Matt

image.png.5242a9651caedc8280a4b83ff07a0266.png

and the larger perspective:

January 22

54 minutes ago, Allen said:

Pensacola area. If you read the post I made you will see I was talking single digits along the Gulf coast not FL even though FL did dip to 9F North of the Pensacola area

I saw 2F in Florida earlier on a PWS. There were several stations in northeast Florida reporting 2F to 5F.

-3F in southern Louisiana. I’m not even sure these were absolute minimums, or whether it went a degree or two colder ultimately in these spots.

January 22

For posterity.

-Matt

WELCOME GUEST

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