Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

These winters with these random damaging cold snaps are getting so old.   I keep moving to warmer and warmer places but it doesn't seem to be helping.  I'm going to protect my Bismarckia and that's it.  Whatever dies won't be replanted.  I'm glad I have mostly Sabals and Butia-ish things.  There's a potential for 36 hours below freezing.

Those temps aren't that damaging as long as it doesn't go much lower. I have no plans to protect Bismarckia. Current NWS forecast is still high 20s so we'll see 

[Xenon]

46 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

 

So if you don't go above 0C / 32F on one of those days, that is pretty brutal. 

 

That's happened in extreme southern Texas more than once. On an occasion in February 2011, the daily "high" of 36F was recorded at midnight and the temp dropped throughout the day and was below freezing even at noon. The actual minimum low was only 28F. Most zone 10 palms like royals, foxtails, etc survived. Even a good number of coconuts survived. Completely defoliated on the brink of death but eventually fully recovered. 

[Swolte]

Ugh, this is getting worse every day. Looks like I am predicted to hit the teens again. And guess what, the high pressure may push the cloud cover away too for a nice clear sky to have the cold snow do its work and burn some more. If it actually stays at 18F in my yard, I'll take it as a win, however, otherwise its looking like another damaging winter. It'll be a busy weekend!

[NBTX11]

NWS now predicting a low of 27 for San Antonio for this cold snap.  So, essentially, a big nothing burger.

[NBTX11]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

That's happened in extreme southern Texas more than once. On an occasion in February 2011, the daily "high" of 36F was recorded at midnight and the temp dropped throughout the day and was below freezing even at noon. The actual minimum low was only 28F. Most zone 10 palms like royals, foxtails, etc survived. Even a good number of coconuts survived. Completely defoliated on the brink of death but eventually fully recovered. 

I don't know what the temperatures dropped to but when l was in McAllen TX last year I saw huge royal palms everywhere,.  I even saw some on the northern fringes of the valley in Edinburg, although those were in more protected locations.  In Donna TX, I saw the largest and tallest Robusta I have ever seen in person.  I saw a grouping of them and all of them were way over 100 feet tall.  I can't imagine any in LA being taller than the ones I saw.  Truly massive.   

[Xenon]

51 minutes ago, NBTX11 said:

I don't know what the temperatures dropped to but when l was in McAllen TX last year I saw huge royal palms everywhere,.  I even saw some on the northern fringes of the valley in Edinburg, although those were in more protected locations.  In Donna TX, I saw the largest and tallest Robusta I have ever seen in person.  I saw a grouping of them and all of them were way over 100 feet tall.  I can't imagine any in LA being taller than the ones I saw.  Truly massive.   

There are some amazing things in the RGV!!! Even after 2021. Specimen size Hyphaene, Medemia...Texas Tahina...there are some parts of south McAllen that look like a royal palm jungle. I once saw a full size Texas Corypha (RIP) in person 

[Ivanos1982]

11 hours ago, Xenon said:

You mean this? LOOOOL that's not going to happen. 

 

 

 

This is too crazy LOOOOL can you imagine it being 12 degrees in Lafayette, Louisiana even colder than Alberta and Saskatchewan? hahahahaha

I mean this....

[Xenon]

This is as anxiety inducing as tracking the path of a hurricane. Is it gonna snow? Is it not gonna snow? Is it going to be a full on blizzard? Is it going to be 30 degrees or 15 degrees? LOL. Seems like nobody knows, not the models not the NWS 😅

[Las Palmas Norte]

6 hours ago, Keys6505 said:

I see the Fatsia, I was referring to the shrub on the left.  If not schefflera then..Rhododendron?

Rhododendron decorum

[UK_Palms]

11 hours ago, Xenon said:

That's happened in extreme southern Texas more than once. On an occasion in February 2011, the daily "high" of 36F was recorded at midnight and the temp dropped throughout the day and was below freezing even at noon. The actual minimum low was only 28F. Most zone 10 palms like royals, foxtails, etc survived. Even a good number of coconuts survived. Completely defoliated on the brink of death but eventually fully recovered. 

Sure, but for zones 8b/9a and upwards, I would say the benchmark of a proper cold event would be having days that do not rise above freezing. Obviously that is nothing out of the ordinary for many places that are properly cold in winter (say zones 6-8), but for those of us in warmer zone 8b/9a and up, sub-freezing maximums are a sign of a serious cold outbreak. The nighttime minimum is only one half of the equation. Having a 40F max after a 20F minimum is going to help mitigate damage. Having a 30F max after a 25F night may do more damage than having a 20F night followed by a 40F day. Apples and pears though I guess. It’s all relative.

[Ivanos1982]

6 hours ago, Xenon said:

This is as anxiety inducing as tracking the path of a hurricane. Is it gonna snow? Is it not gonna snow? Is it going to be a full on blizzard? Is it going to be 30 degrees or 15 degrees? LOL. Seems like nobody knows, not the models not the NWS 😅

i think this is worse than a hurricane. The models are all over the place even days before the event. With hurricanes you start having a clear path. It also doesnt help that meteorologists and Houston people love snow and hype it as if it is some kind of gift from god. 

[ahosey01]

18 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Sure, but for zones 8b/9a and upwards, I would say the benchmark of a proper cold event would be having days that do not rise above freezing. Obviously that is nothing out of the ordinary for many places that are properly cold in winter (say zones 6-8), but for those of us in warmer zone 8b/9a and up, sub-freezing maximums are a sign of a serious cold outbreak. The nighttime minimum is only one half of the equation. Having a 40F max after a 20F minimum is going to help mitigate damage. Having a 30F max after a 25F night may do more damage than having a 20F night followed by a 40F day. Apples and pears though I guess. It’s all relative.

Do you guys say "Apples and Pears" over there?

This blows my mind...

[PaPalmTrees]

11 hours ago, Swolte said:

Ugh, this is getting worse every day. Looks like I am predicted to hit the teens again. And guess what, the high pressure may push the cloud cover away too for a nice clear sky to have the cold snow do its work and burn some more. If it actually stays at 18F in my yard, I'll take it as a win, however, otherwise its looking like another damaging winter. It'll be a busy weekend!

It least you're not getting down to -1 🙁

[DTS]

Yikes! Almost every day in January has been under 32 degrees, which is actually odd because last couple Januarys had way more above freezing days.. and now dipping into -6, which isn't too bad for over here.

[PaPalmTrees]

3 minutes ago, DTS said:

Yikes! Almost every day in January has been under 32 degrees, which is actually odd because last couple Januarys had way more above freezing days.. and now dipping into -6, which isn't too bad for over here.

this january has been bad for the midwest and the east coast.

[Xenon]

59 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Having a 30F max after a 25F night may do more damage than having a 20F night followed by a 40F day. 

That's survivable for a big fat royal palm in Texas. The second scenario isn't. Hard to believe I know but seeing is believing...

[Ivanos1982]

So Im in Houston and Im going to be mulching most of my palms since they are still small. I wasnt going to because the forecast was 28 F as the minimum. But now that the forecast changed to 20F it will be needed. Usually the temps end up being 2 to 10 degrees colder than what they forecast so mulch it is. Specially for my arecas and kings. I bought hand warmers but those will have to go on the night before since they only last about 8 hours after being fully charged so I may have to go out and install them in the cold and snow... we will see. I am planning of wrapping them around the area where the heart of the palm is with a towel so it doesnt risk of burning it. I have used those under covers and towels/gloves so i think they are safe. Wish everyone luck! 

[UK_Palms]

46 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

Do you guys say "Apples and Pears" over there?

This blows my mind...

Nah not really. I think I meant to say ‘apples and oranges’… 🤣

Apparently “apples and pears” is Cockney rhyming slang for ‘stairs’ it seems. So maybe I was getting confused. I don’t even use Cockney rhyming slang. That’s like old fashioned London street talk and I don’t actually know anyone who talks like that lol. I think I just said ‘pears’ by mistake.

[SailorBold]

15 hours ago, Las Palmas Norte said:

 

 

Neither. Fatsia japonica. A Pacific Northwest favorite.

Looking closer.. yeah.. it's a rhododendron..!!!

[Xenon]

There's still hope for Houston 😭. Hopefully just sleet and a tiny sprinkle of snow per the lastest run. Last two GFS runs' trend is to keep accumulating snowfall to the north and east. Please don't nuke Houston 😭 

[Ivanos1982]

10 minutes ago, Xenon said:

There's still hope for Houston 😭. Hopefully just sleet and a tiny sprinkle of snow per the lastest run. Last two GFS runs' trend is to keep accumulating snowfall to the north and east. Please don't nuke Houston 😭 

either way temperatures wise it seems like it is going to be a very similar event to last year in January. That one wiped out a few of my queens and killed half of my bougainvillea. What's maddening is that we can't catch a break in Houston. We need one year of mild winter at least for all our plants to get better and we are just not getting it. Since 2021 it has gone downhill. 

[_nevi]

50 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

either way temperatures wise it seems like it is going to be a very similar event to last year in January. That one wiped out a few of my queens and killed half of my bougainvillea. What's maddening is that we can't catch a break in Houston. We need one year of mild winter at least for all our plants to get better and we are just not getting it. Since 2021 it has gone downhill. 

Indeed. 

Given recent trends, the ideal scenarios (at time of this comment) are shown by ICON 12z and UKMET 12z — both push the bulk of precip to the south/offshore, allowing the overall day to be milder, while lacking the snowcover that would create worse radiational cooling.

The CMC and GFS are less ideal for areas inland ... but the trend so far has been to shift heaviest snow totals to the north (away from Gulf Coastal counties)

[Xenon]

Meanwhile Euro wants The Day After Tomorrow 😭🤮🫠 

[Ivanos1982]

12 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Meanwhile Euro wants The Day After Tomorrow 😭🤮🫠 

The Euro is doing this because it is predicting the snow to be right at the area of Houston. If this is snow, we may have to come out and blow it out of the covered palms. If it is freezing rain, it's going to be hard and wet.

[Ivanos1982]

The question is: where was all this rain in the summer when we had a nasty drought in Houston? I lost a few trees and plants that I just couldn't keep watering all summer long. Now we are 'certain' we are getting precipitation. Houston has been very extreme since 2021. Too dry, too wet, too hot, too cold. It has been hard to keep the palms alive. I don't know how long they are going to live. My Kings didn't really put out any growth all summer long even though I watered them every other day. I almost lost one of em as the spear got stuck and didn't move at all. It finally started moving in November when we started getting rain. And now with this, I dont know if it will make it.

[UK_Palms]

5 hours ago, PaPalmTrees said:

this january has been bad for the midwest and the east coast.

Tell me about it. The first half of January has been the coldest in 15 years here, since 2010 for London and much of the UK. The Met station at St James Park went down to 26F. Twenty six! It was the coldest 11th January since 1987! Brutal temps for the heart of London in this day and age. One of the days only reached 38F as well.

[ahosey01]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

Meanwhile Euro wants The Day After Tomorrow 😭🤮🫠 

I literally just don't buy that Matagorda Bay is colder than North Dakota lol

[PaPalmTrees]

53 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Tell me about it. The first half of January has been the coldest in 15 years here, since 2010 for London and much of the UK. The Met station at St James Park went down to 26F. Twenty six! It was the coldest 11th January since 1987! Brutal temps for the heart of London in this day and age. One of the days only reached 38F as well.

I feel for you it's been a cold winter

[_nevi]

4 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

The Euro is doing this because it is predicting the snow to be right at the area of Houston. If this is snow, we may have to come out and blow it out of the covered palms. If it is freezing rain, it's going to be hard and wet.

In fairness, snow takes time to accumulate. Atmosphere still has to saturate for flakes to fall, so real totals can be less than model outputs.

Also, the H5 pattern can still be favorable for cloud cover to limit radiational cooling, regardless of snowfall. Like, it's possible for the EURO to be correct with snowfall, but, say, the CMC is correct with H5.

Nevertheless, the 18z ICON is still showing a more ideal solution. The AI version of the EURO at 12z is also more ideal than the regular 12z Euro.

UPDATE: 18z GFS moves the heaviest snowfalls even more northward.

[Las Palmas Norte]

Interesting stuff. I'm sitting out front and watching from afar.

Good luck down there.

 

[Chester B]

This is garbage. Now they’re saying low of 19 and Tuesday is not going above freezing. 
So we live in a subtropical climate but can’t grow subtropical plants anymore?  I’m not protecting. If it dies then it’s permanently going on the no plant list. Between the weather in Oregon the last few years and now this the last two here, I have to admit I’m about done.  If the summer heat doesn’t kill it, then the winter cold will. I guess we’ll be staring at bronzed off palms for the next few months for the ones that make it. I think they need to update the growing zone maps based on only the last 10 years going forward. Too much rapid change. 

[Chester B]

So I was looking at all of the local news stations for Dallas, San Antonio and Houston and Houston is expected the be the coldest of the 3 cities especially on Tuesday.  How is that even possible?

[ChrisA]

7 hours ago, Xenon said:

Meanwhile Euro wants The Day After Tomorrow 😭🤮🫠 

12F in Houston, 20F in The Woodlands?  That’s laughable! Emphasis on the F next to both numbers… 

[Keys6505]

1 hour ago, Chester B said:

This is garbage. Now they’re saying low of 19 and Tuesday is not going above freezing. 
So we live in a subtropical climate but can’t grow subtropical plants anymore?  I’m not protecting. If it dies then it’s permanently going on the no plant list. Between the weather in Oregon the last few years and now this the last two here, I have to admit I’m about done.  If the summer heat doesn’t kill it, then the winter cold will. I guess we’ll be staring at bronzed off palms for the next few months for the ones that make it. I think they need to update the growing zone maps based on only the last 10 years going forward. Too much rapid change. 

Eh, you gotta look at it as an opportunity to weed out the weak ones while they're still small.  I've lost a few Bizzy, L. Chinensis, etc in the past few years but the ones that were survivors keep surviving.  I 100% believe there is a hardiness range within any given species based on genetics alone.  You just gotta find the good ones.  My yard got to 19.8 last winter, Bizzy defoliated but came back fine, C. Cataractum has come back from every freeze including Palmageddon, Chinensis, Decora and Mule never even defoliated at 19.8.  Arenga Engleri, Majesty, B. Clara and Rhapis had protection but never defoliated either.   And that's not even getting into the real hardy stuff.  Bonus points if you lose something that you bought at Lowe's in the past 12 months because you can just bring back the receipt and the stump and they'll give you a new one.

[MarcusH]

That's exactly why I didn't zone push after I lost 2 Queens anymore.  I was so tired of constantly checking the weather during winter time like Floridians track hurricanes in summer.  It's nerv wracking.  Every year the same.  Good thing is Washies bounce back in no time.  In April, my Robusta should look good again no big deal. For parts outside of the RGV in Texas I can tell you Filiferas and Sabals are your friends among with some other very cold hardy palms. 

[MarcusH]

52 minutes ago, ChrisA said:

12F in Houston, 20F in The Woodlands?  That’s laughable! Emphasis on the F next to both numbers… 

Lol San Antonio is warmer than Houston on the map. I doubt it's right. 

[ChrisA]

30 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Lol San Antonio is warmer than Houston on the map. I doubt it's right. 

The real winners for that night are Amarillo and Wichita Falls, downright palmy compared to icy Houston and Lake Jackson!

[UK_Palms]

Given the freeze that we sustained (and it was a hard freeze by UK standards) it will be interesting to see how all the crap has faired outside of London in the rural countryside, further north with no UHI... given it was the coldest first half of a January in 15 years,

We'll see how 'bulletproof' Washingtonia really is with no UHI and the coldest January in 15 years at 52N latitude.. July 2024 google earth photos with no UHI pretty much and far inland... zone 8b/9a at 52N in south central England... already 20ft Washies...

Nowhere on planet earth is topping this zone push... and never protected ever since 2008... I suspect zero to minimal damage. Maybe these Robusta's saw 24-25F but they will brush it off like it is nothing. We will see...

2016 images attached too... zero UHI at 52N...

[Ivanos1982]

6 hours ago, Chester B said:

This is garbage. Now they’re saying low of 19 and Tuesday is not going above freezing. 
So we live in a subtropical climate but can’t grow subtropical plants anymore?  I’m not protecting. If it dies then it’s permanently going on the no plant list. Between the weather in Oregon the last few years and now this the last two here, I have to admit I’m about done.  If the summer heat doesn’t kill it, then the winter cold will. I guess we’ll be staring at bronzed off palms for the next few months for the ones that make it. I think they need to update the growing zone maps based on only the last 10 years going forward. Too much rapid change. 

this has been a serious struggle in Houston. Extremely dry summers, tons of mosquitoes, then these disgusting winters. Its rinse and repeat. Youd think the mosquitoes would be gone with these cold blasts but no they still come back even worse. As for the tropical plants i feel like Houston is a lot less temperate than people say. The zone maps are all wrong. 

[Ivanos1982]

6 hours ago, ChrisA said:

12F in Houston, 20F in The Woodlands?  That’s laughable! Emphasis on the F next to both numbers… 

i think it is because this model is expecting like 3 inches of snow in Houston. We shall see. If it rains after it snows it will all be gone hopefully. Then all that water will turn into an icy mess.