Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

January 20

1 hour ago, jwitt said:

True that.

But our February event was very early. I have never seen an zero event come later.

November/December yes, mid February and later no.

I see they lowered the low to 6f in our neighborhood. Gonna be some damage.

I definitely will brush off snow if we get.

Good luck!

I have no plans to protect anything. Hopefully the damage is minimal with the short duration and sun here in central NM. My Filibusta is already showing some bronzing from the last few nights. Good luck everyone!

January 20

Pensacola Beach in Florida at freezing 0C / 32F at 11am with a -7C / 19F windchill. Imagine if you had booked a holiday vacation there for this week to escape the cold up north lol.

January 20

2 minutes ago, NMPalmjunky said:

I have no plans to protect anything. Hopefully the damage is minimal with the short duration and sun here in central NM. My Filibusta is already showing some bronzing from the last few nights. Good luck everyone!

Wow! What zone are you in? Central NM has many palms in zones they couldn't grow in if they were on the Atlantic Coast in the same zones. I think less moisture helps with brief cold periods.

January 20

what's interesting is that TV news stations are predicting about 4 to 5 inches of snow in Houston and the models are only seeing about an inch of accumulation. I'm wondering where they are getting that info from? Right now the system coming looks fairly dry on the radar. Maybe it will beef up as the day goes by?

January 20

Do yall water before a freeze? Is there truly any benefits to it?

January 20

14 minutes ago, NMPalmjunky said:

I have no plans to protect anything. Hopefully the damage is minimal with the short duration and sun here in central NM. My Filibusta is already showing some bronzing from the last few nights. Good luck everyone!

@Muslim Gardener Most of central New Mexico ranges from 6b to 8a. My area is officially 7b, but it’s closer to 8a over the last decade. There are thousands of tall “yucca palms” everywhere and a growing number of Washingtonias and windmills. I have also had good success with Chamaerops and Butia. Check out some of the Albuquerque threads to see several massive palms that survived -10F in 2011. The dryness and the solar radiation probably give us a full zone increase on desert plants compared to a similar zone on the East coast.

January 20

7 minutes ago, Victor likes palms said:

Do yall water before a freeze? Is there truly any benefits to it?

The only time it could possibly be beneficial is when the temperature is only dropping to say 29-30F and by covering a plant in water that freezes it insulates it and stops the temperature of the plant dropping below say 32F (during a light freeze). This is what the French vineyards do sometimes when they have a late frost that could damage the new growth of the vines.

However I don't see any way in which this could be applied to protecting a palm. Especially during a more serious winter freeze as well. Watering a palm when you have say a night of 20F or lower forecast is probably the most nonsensical thing you could do. That water will only freeze eventually. There is a reason why palms can withstand much colder nights in drier climates - because it is dry.

January 20

17 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

The only time it could possibly be beneficial is when the temperature is only dropping to say 29-30F and by covering a plant in water that freezes it insulates it and stops the temperature of the plant dropping below say 32F (during a light freeze). This is what the French vineyards do sometimes when they have a late frost that could damage the new growth of the vines.

However I don't see any way in which this could be applied to protecting a palm. Especially during a more serious winter freeze as well. Watering a palm when you have say a night of 20F or lower forecast is probably the most nonsensical thing you could do. That water will only freeze eventually. There is a reason why palms can withstand much colder nights in drier climates - because it is dry.

Thats what i was thinking, it didnt make much sense to me how it could benefit my plant if its going to freeze anyway. Im planning to wrap my plants in christmas lights but I don’t know the best way to go about it. Are they suppose to be directly touching the plant? Do the plants need to be wrapped with a fabric to hold the heat from the christmas lights in?

January 20

2 hours ago, jwitt said:

True that.

But our February event was very early. I have never seen an zero event come later.

November/December yes, mid February and later no.

I see they lowered the low to 6f in our neighborhood. Gonna be some damage.

I definitely will brush off snow if we get.

Good luck!

I'm gonna remain optimistic.. 5 hours of defoliation weather!!

January 20

17 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

The only time it could possibly be beneficial is when the temperature is only dropping to say 29-30F and by covering a plant in water that freezes it insulates it and stops the temperature of the plant dropping below say 32F (during a light freeze).

I had always thought this had to do with moist soil better able to retain heat than dry soil and not so much an insulation effect, but I am happy to be proven wrong. Watering can then still have a moderating effect as heat during the day gets absorbed better.

January 20

25 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

The only time it could possibly be beneficial is when the temperature is only dropping to say 29-30F and by covering a plant in water that freezes it insulates it and stops the temperature of the plant dropping below say 32F (during a light freeze). This is what the French vineyards do sometimes when they have a late frost that could damage the new growth of the vines.

However I don't see any way in which this could be applied to protecting a palm. Especially during a more serious winter freeze as well. Watering a palm when you have say a night of 20F or lower forecast is probably the most nonsensical thing you could do. That water will only freeze eventually. There is a reason why palms can withstand much colder nights in drier climates - because it is dry.

Yes German vineyards do this too. This is only to protect the buds during unexpected late frost events. And it's only for short and not hard frost. They also don't just hose the plants down they spray them for hours with fine droplets to build up a thick layer of ice.

January 20

10 minutes ago, Swolte said:

I had always thought this had to do with moist soil better able to retain heat than dry soil and not so much an insulation effect, but I am happy to be proven wrong. Watering can then still have a moderating effect as heat during the day gets absorbed better.

I think when the ground is mulched enough the insulation works with water and thus also provides liquid water for when the sun comes out. When a plant is in a pot it's better to keep it dry for frost events.

January 20

17 minutes ago, Victor likes palms said:

Thats what i was thinking, it didnt make much sense to me how it could benefit my plant if its going to freeze anyway. Im planning to wrap my plants in christmas lights but I don’t know the best way to go about it. Are they suppose to be directly touching the plant? Do the plants need to be wrapped with a fabric to hold the heat from the christmas lights in?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JARFQ3kjxbQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vP4ecPWkGE

January 20

42 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

The only time it could possibly be beneficial is when the temperature is only dropping to say 29-30F and by covering a plant in water that freezes it insulates it and stops the temperature of the plant dropping below say 32F (during a light freeze). This is what the French vineyards do sometimes when they have a late frost that could damage the new growth of the vines.

However I don't see any way in which this could be applied to protecting a palm. Especially during a more serious winter freeze as well. Watering a palm when you have say a night of 20F or lower forecast is probably the most nonsensical thing you could do. That water will only freeze eventually. There is a reason why palms can withstand much colder nights in drier climates - because it is dry.

It works as you explained.

It also works in colder zones. It takes the same energy(heat) to melt ice to water and not change the temperature (32f) as heating 32f water to 176f water. It is called latent heat. Exactly what the wall o water is based on.

The water is kept sealed in a container and that latent heat is very beneficial beneficial on a zero degrees night wrapped around the bud. So instead of near zero, that bud sees something warmer like 15f.

Proven on palms many times.

January 20

4 hours ago, _nevi said:

The good news with this is that it would also allow more time for afternoon warmup/clearing — for example, the latest HRRR has everywhere in Houston area above freezing by afternoon. That could help ease off the snow cover, in turn limiting radiational impacts — models like NAM3k, HRRR, keep lows in 20s for this reason. All of it is consistent with suppression modeling trends/patterns that I've posted (as of time of writing).

I forgot to mention that faster movement of the storm system would also lead to faster movement of accompanying high pressure — this would limit radiational cooling as "return flow" comes clockwise from the high pressure moving east. If you look at the 12z HRRR, notice that lower dewpoint advection "ceases", allowing Houston area to stay in 20s values — and, obviously, temperature cannot fall below the dewpoint.

PS: latest 18zHRRR coming in, and totals lowered a bit from 12zHRRR. So the suppression trend still is active.

January 20

2 hours ago, Swolte said:

I had always thought this had to do with moist soil better able to retain heat than dry soil and not so much an insulation effect, but I am happy to be proven wrong. Watering can then still have a moderating effect as heat during the day gets absorbed better.

I’ve read and been told that a lot of nurseries do it and recommend it for what @Swolte mentioned and the fact that dry plants will take more freeze damage.

January 20

Harlingen coconuts ready for a freezing night with 27°F as the forecasted low.

January 20

7 minutes ago, Fusca said:

Harlingen coconuts ready for a freezing night with 27°F as the forecasted low.

I need to get over here one day Richard keeps t elling me about this place.....

Gotta wrap mine up today too.

January 20

11 minutes ago, Fusca said:

Harlingen coconuts ready for a freezing night with 27°F as the forecasted low.

Jon is this your garden ? Or in the neighborhood? I think I would wrap more then that haha All my Patrick hybrids are on there own this year excpet my BxPJS. Really hoping the snow in the morning insualtes the palms.

T J

January 20

25 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

I need to get over here one day Richard keeps t elling me about this place.....

Gotta wrap mine up today too.

Could have sworn you were from Arizona or something before? Or am I going crazy? Unless you moved to Texas?

13 minutes ago, OC2Texaspalmlvr said:

Really hoping the snow in the morning insulates the palms.

giphy-1.gif.81ef474b7379e1b3d3be8664e0c14632.gif

January 20

4 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Pensacola Beach in Florida at freezing 0C / 32F at 11am with a -7C / 19F windchill. Imagine if you had booked a holiday vacation there for this week to escape the cold up north lol.

Pensacola is always cold at this time of the year. A few degrees colder doesn't make a difference.

January 20

2 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

Pensacola is always cold at this time of the year. A few degrees colder doesn't make a difference.

How often is Pensacola Beach 0C / 32F at 11am with a -7C / 19F windchill...again at 11am? Even during a proper cold spell.

It didn't even get as cold as that in parts of coastal Wales at 52N during the recent UK freeze event.

January 20

1 hour ago, OC2Texaspalmlvr said:

Jon is this your garden ? Or in the neighborhood? I think I would wrap more then that haha All my Patrick hybrids are on there own this year excpet my BxPJS. Really hoping the snow in the morning insualtes the palms.

T J

Those coconuts are at Matt's - about 8 miles west of my place. My coconut is still in a pot in the garage. LOL! I'm protecting my mango, bottle palm, new foxtail palm and the two new Chrysalidocarpus (decaryi and madagascarensis). Hope your stuff all pulls through.

January 20

1 hour ago, ahosey01 said:

I need to get over here one day Richard keeps t elling me about this place.....

I'm going back to Matt's on Friday after lunch to unwrap them, you ought to stop by while I'm there. It's supposed to be 80°F again on Sunday!

January 20

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

Could have sworn you were from Arizona or something before? Or am I going crazy? Unless you moved to Texas?

This is correct I sold my place in Arizona and wound up in Brownsville on accident. Glad I did - I'll die here. Texas is the greatest country in the world. 🤭

January 20

25 minutes ago, Fusca said:

I'm going back to Matt's on Friday after lunch to unwrap them, you ought to stop by while I'm there. It's supposed to be 80°F again on Sunday!

Text me what time you're going let's try and work something out.

January 20

5 hours ago, Ivanos1982 said:

what's interesting is that TV news stations are predicting about 4 to 5 inches of snow in Houston and the models are only seeing about an inch of accumulation. I'm wondering where they are getting that info from? Right now the system coming looks fairly dry on the radar. Maybe it will beef up as the day goes by?

There's always some spread between what models show and which forecast a meteorologist will put up at the time.

For example: Today the low level clouds started to move north about 6-7 hours ahead of what the high-res rapid refresh CAMs (Convection Allowing Models) were predicting. This indicates that even in the short range period, those models are off a bit. Likely due to small variances in the data that was used to initialize the model run vs the actual conditions.

This provides a clue that the models are "off" a bit, maybe only in timing, but likely more than that. Keep in mind that the lowest level of the atmosphere in the western GoM (Gulf of Mexico) is undergoing rapid changes due to dynamics taking place up stream and at higher levels above it. There's a layer of dry air above and the precip is starting from clouds that are a bit elevated. So most of the early radar returns are of virga where the falling precip will have to have some time to moisten and cool the lower levels that it's falling into, this wet-bulbing effect takes a bit of time to occur. This is one of many variable that a meteorologist must contend with besides just taking any model as "gospel". Other uncertainties have are around the thermodynamics within the column of air relate to the layers in which dendritic ice crystals (snow) formation mostly occurs ... that layer is rather dry right now, but moistening up. How fast can it moisten ?

Other variables (not involving cloud physics or storm precipitation efficiencies) around snowfall accumulation amounts have to do with complex ground level micro-physics involving temperatures, moisture, sublimation, compaction, melting, etc.

In the end every met can go with the model verbatim, or trust their instincts combined with their experiences. So you see large variance between a numerical model or an NWS met or the mets on TV.

The models, even this close to the event, are not in agreement with details on where, when and the amount of snowfall. Winter weather precip is always very hard to predict.

As an aside, a lot of people have most likely not seen this kind of data, but they have heard of the concept of Ensemble models. Take the GFS model as an example: It has 30+ members that are executed and each one will at arrive at it's own solution (forecast) for a given point of time in the future. This 30+ member run comprises an "Ensemble". Here's a precip forecast for Texas for next Monday (January 27th) .... you can see a huge variance in this single model (GFS) and its 30 members:

So from this; for next Monday what's the precip forecast for Austin TX ?

Here's what NWS Austin says:

image.png.b3530537988b6bb41433a86f10310bb2.png

No mention of precip or precip type.

-Matt

January 20

A few pics of my protection. We are now expected to get to 3F. Also using the 500 watt halogen and the 10' (They are actually 13') pool tarps. So I practice what I preach. Only use that 500 watt light in a open structure. It is in a 10'x10' area with frost cloth around.

January 21

6 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Pensacola Beach in Florida at freezing 0C / 32F at 11am with a -7C / 19F windchill. Imagine if you had booked a holiday vacation there for this week to escape the cold up north lol.

If you're looking to escape the cold this time of year you gotta head to far south Florida. Naples, Miami, the Keys. The areas where coconut palms are found commonly growing.

Tbh you'd be unlucky having a trip this week even down there as it's going to be in the 50s, 60s, and maybe 70s, though that's the kind of weather coastal California has in summer and people swear it's the best weather on earth (something I've never understood lol).

January 21

Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

Looking at the pics, it appears your palms are more prepared than everyone staring at the on-line weather forecasts.😄

January 21

1 hour ago, ahosey01 said:

This is correct I sold my place in Arizona and wound up in Brownsville on accident. Glad I did - I'll die here. Texas is the greatest country in the world. 🤭

January 21

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

How often is Pensacola Beach 0C / 32F at 11am with a -7C / 19F windchill...again at 11am? Even during a proper cold spell.

It didn't even get as cold as that in parts of coastal Wales at 52N during the recent UK freeze event.

My point is it is winter time here in N.America and everyone knows Pensacola's winter are cold compared to S.Florida . It used to be zone 8b for a long time 15 to 20f average until recently. You can't compare America to the UK. Totally different geography and climate . No tourists expects to swim in the gulf or lay on the beach towel in January in Pensacola. That's what I'm saying a few degrees colder won't matter. The majority of palms are Sabal Palmetto with some Butia Odorata in that region. I visited Pensacola before.

January 21

3 minutes ago, MarcusH said:

My point is it is winter time here in N.America and everyone knows Pensacola's winter are cold compared to S.Florida . It used to be zone 8b for a long time 15 to 20f average until recently. You can't compare America to the UK. Totally different geography and climate . No tourists expects to swim in the gulf or lay on the beach towel in January in Pensacola. That's what I'm saying a few degrees colder won't matter. The majority of palms are Sabal Palmetto with some Butia Odorata in that region. I visited Pensacola before.

Palms will be fine as always. Nothing to see here.

January 21

already snowing in Katy and Woodlands, god have mercy on us

January 21

image.png.8e9e3c620813729bc197ba60eaba61f1.png

Above is a derived sounding for Houston TX using the data that Initialized the 18Z run of the GFS model. Here's what I am seeing:

Where the dewpoint curve (light green) meets the temperature curve (red) just below the 700 MB level (3 km) is where the cloud layer is. This is the only player that any precipitation can be forming. The Arctic airmass is just barely 1 KM deep. and it's very dry. So any precip must fall 3 KM down to the ground through a very dry airmass. As it does so, it will cool the air in that layer by 5-8 degrees which will also help moisten it up so that eventually precip can make it to the ground. The are of Dendritic formation is much higher up. It's between 16,681 and 19,291 feet AGL. That layer is very dry (7% RH). Nor are there any clouds up there attm.

image.png.07eba2759de7e71117f935043c7a5956.png

If you watched satellite loop today you got the impression that clouds were moving from South to North. That's partly true. Rember these clouds are just under 3 KM above our heads. The wind at that level is from the SW. What's really going on is that the clouds are forming via isentropic lift above the arctic front. They are moving, but mostly they were forming rapidly in a south to north manner as the area of isentropic lift expanded / grew northward.

So what will happen tonight ? See below

The dendritic growth layer will lower down and the layers below the cloud bearing layer will moisten up and cool. At this point we can get precip to the ground finally, but mostly as sleet.

image.png.47d70e6d94f3af542f59cf9030ab1e92.png

image.png.37481efa92ae3665e1bcabbc7229a579.png

Now a few more hours later it switches to snow:

image.png.a6002536b9c943af345aedebd50b67e3.png

Now you will notice that the temperature and dewpoint line is very close through a deep layer of the atmosphere ... from the surface to 300 MB (9 KM) up. It's moist and cloudy and now we can have all snow with this thermal profile. Because at this point we are generating snowflakes in the dendritic growth layer and it's below freezing from there all the way to the surface.

image.png.d05425b2c49b46e44ace1b3837737b2f.png

-Matt

January 21

1 hour ago, ahosey01 said:

This is correct I sold my place in Arizona and wound up in Brownsville on accident. Glad I did - I'll die here. Texas is the greatest country in the world. 🤭

Spoken like a true Texan. You must be fitting in well. 🙂

I am really enjoying it so far too. I will always love the beauty of the Ozarks, but in Texas I was swimming in my pool the second week of November last fall...so there's a lot to love here too.

January 21

Currently sitting at 1° 😕

January 21

48 minutes ago, JeskiM said:

Above is a derived sounding for Houston TX using the data that Initialized the 18Z run of the GFS model. Here's what I am seeing:

Where the dewpoint curve (light green) meets the temperature curve (red) just below the 700 MB level (3 km) is where the cloud layer is. This is the only player that any precipitation can be forming. The Arctic airmass is just barely 1 KM deep. and it's very dry. So any precip must fall 3 KM down to the ground through a very dry airmass. As it does so, it will cool the air in that layer by 5-8 degrees which will also help moisten it up so that eventually precip can make it to the ground. The are of Dendritic formation is much higher up. It's between 16,681 and 19,291 feet AGL. That layer is very dry (7% RH). Nor are there any clouds up there attm.

If you watched satellite loop today you got the impression that clouds were moving from South to North. That's partly true. Rember these clouds are just under 3 KM above our heads. The wind at that level is from the SW. What's really going on is that the clouds are forming via isentropic lift above the arctic front. They are moving, but mostly they were forming rapidly in a south to north manner as the area of isentropic lift expanded / grew northward.

So what will happen tonight ? See below

The dendritic growth layer will lower down and the layers below the cloud bearing layer will moisten up and cool. At this point we can get precip to the ground finally, but mostly as sleet.

Now a few more hours later it switches to snow:

Now you will notice that the temperature and dewpoint line is very close through a deep layer of the atmosphere ... from the surface to 300 MB (9 KM) up. It's moist and cloudy and now we can have all snow with this thermal profile. Because at this point we are generating snowflakes in the dendritic growth layer and it's below freezing from there all the way to the surface.

-Matt

does this mean we might actually get the 6 inches they are predicting? radar is now showing snow percipitation in northwest Houston

January 21

We just had negative 1

January 21

5 minutes ago, Ivanos1982 said:

does this mean we might actually get the 6 inches they are predicting? radar is now showing snow percipitation in northwest Houston

There are reports coming into NWS Houston via mPing of some light precip. Appears to be rain / sleet north of I-10 atrm. It'll ramp up over the night.

Total snow will mostly (basically) depend on how long it snows and at what rate. So how long the storm stays over you will drive it. Also wherever the snowbands fiorm will drive it too.

I think 5 inches isn't out of the question tonight, but I can't say if it will be at your specific location. That's why the Winter Storm Warning covers a large area ... not everyone in that area will get the heavy amount.

- Matt

WELCOME GUEST

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