Polar Vortex Jan 2025 - Are you preparing your palms?

[UK_Palms]

It's crazy how warm south Florida is against the rest of the continent and even northern Florida. It's exceptionally warm even by the mildest of European standards. Obviously the majority of Europe is at higher latitude, but that makes your cold blasts even more extraordinary down there. The winters are so much milder in Europe, generally speaking. But then you've got south Florida lol.

Current real time temperatures...

[Subtropical LIS]

11 minutes ago, DAVEinMB said:

David is not happy. 

I would be very careful not to trust the Weather Channel - they are known to hype snow BIG TIME.

The local NWS in Wilmington is calling for 3 to 5 inches for the Myrtle Beach area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
417 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
220900-
/O.CON.KILM.WS.W.0001.250122T0200Z-250122T1300Z/
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New
Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Coastal
Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern
Horry-

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and
  4 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 3 and 5 inches near the coast with locally
  higher amounts possible.

 

[_nevi]

4 hours ago, Xenon said:

This cold mass is not that cold. This is not one of those Siberian-express 80s type freezes. This is like a perfect alignment of decent cold and moisture to create a snowstorm. The nail in the coffin comes from the radiational freeze magnified by all of the accumulating snow.

Dallas is forecast to be warmer than Houston tonight, Shreveport warmer than Baton Ruoge, etc so the underlying cold mass is not that cold. It's the wretched snow. 

 

4 hours ago, ahosey01 said:

Things aren't looking awful for Pensacola the way they are for LA so far.  6" of snow sucks, but as far as temps go it looks like the model consensus is 20-21F overnight low which is consistent with 9A temps.  Not a generational freeze there.  Definitely a generational freeze in Louisiana, though.

The dewpoints are the real problem, regardless of snow.

Lots of snow falls on the western Japanese coast, given how the Sea of Japan interacts with the cold Siberian anticyclonic winds. Yet, you can see that the record lows are quite mild. Likely because being on an island limits continentality ... and the associated low dewpoints.
Tōkamachi - Wikipedia

Houston was fortunate enough to get a good bit of sunshine for a good bit of snow melt. So that should limit radiational cooling, both via less reflexivity, as well as dynamics with more water abound (and latent heat influences in atmosphere regarding moisture). Additionally, winds in Texas are switching to southerly, preventing cold advection (and the lower dewpoint air). So, it'd be a long durational cold night, but temps should stay within 20s (verify with dewpoints).

But, for Louisiana through Florida Panhandle, they got all the snowfall ... but the storm (and/or cloud cover) persisted throughout the day, preventing any warm up. And when clouds finally clear? Just so happened to be sundown, so nothing to melt the snow (much). But all this is coming in addition to the movement of the cold high pressure, which would affect drier (lower dewpoint air). 

The main problem in Louisiana is that the cold advection already had been occurring, and clearing would simply enhance radiational cooling. The areas eastward like Alabama and Florida Panhandle are still closer to the storm, so still might have the lingering higher dewpoints/cloud cover — but, if clearing (and cold advection) happen fast enough, then Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle will be just as impacted as Louisiana.

The latest HRRR shows what I'm talking about. Look at how the low dewpoint air disappears over Texas ... but makes the move to the Gulf states eastward.


 

[LakeEriePalms]

Looking at Wunderground. Appears some mid 20s just south of Houston? Already in the teens around Lafayette Louisiana

3F here right now  

[DTS]

The Polar Vortex has finally made me see below 0 temperatures

[Dartolution]

Close to 10" in Daphne!

Roughly 9" in Enterprise, 8" in Fairhope. 

Gulf Shores and the Panhandle just look bizzare with all the snow. 

@Manalto How did you fair down there? 

 

We didn't get so much as a flake here. 

[_nevi]

16 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

It's crazy how warm south Florida is against the rest of the continent and even northern Florida. It's exceptionally warm even by the mildest of European standards. Obviously the majority of Europe is at higher latitude, but that makes your cold blasts even more extraordinary down there. The winters are so much milder in Europe, generally speaking. But then you've got south Florida lol.

Current real time temperatures...

That's because the upper-level trough associated with the current USA cold outbreak was positively-tilted (e.g. SW-NE orientation). The resultant movement of the low pressure system spares peninsular Florida from high pressure impacts.

In contrast, a negatively-tilted trough (NW-SE orientation) would definitely drive cold temperatures down the peninsula.

 

1 minute ago, LakeEriePalms said:

Looking at Wunderground. Appears some mid 20s just south of Houston? Already in the teens around Lafayette Louisiana

3F here right now  

It will all come down to dewpoints. Those areas south of Houston won't get to teens as long as their dewpoints remain 20°F+ through the night.

[mthteh1916]

41 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

It's crazy how warm south Florida is against the rest of the continent and even northern Florida. It's exceptionally warm even by the mildest of European standards. Obviously the majority of Europe is at higher latitude, but that makes your cold blasts even more extraordinary down there. The winters are so much milder in Europe, generally speaking. But then you've got south Florida lol.

Current real time temperatures...

I live in Fort Lauderdale at the bottom of the fl peninsula. Our january avg temps are warmer than the warmest part of england in july lol. 76/61F is our january averages. I have mango trees and 11 coconut palm trees in my yard. Huge massive mango trees. The gulf stream protects us as well as jutting out into the Atlantic Ocean in very warm water. Europe has warmed must faster than the US in terms of climate change. I remember some brutal cold winters hitting Europe in the 80's. 

[Tropicdoc]

Got a foot of snow here after it’s all said and done. Low of 15 tonight. 3-4 more days of freezing temps. 
I’m trying not to cry over my 4 fruiting butia x parajubaea 

biggest question for me is do I replant native and give up or go for the tropicalesque thing again?

[Subtropical LIS]

51 minutes ago, _nevi said:

 

The dewpoints are the real problem, regardless of snow.



But, for Louisiana through Florida Panhandle, they got all the snowfall ... but the storm (and/or cloud cover) persisted throughout the day, preventing any warm up. And when clouds finally clear? Just so happened to be sundown, so nothing to melt the snow (much). But all this is coming in addition to the movement of the cold high pressure, which would affect drier (lower dewpoint air). 

The main problem in Louisiana is that the cold advection already had been occurring, and clearing would simply enhance radiational cooling. The areas eastward like Alabama and Florida Panhandle are still closer to the storm, so still might have the lingering higher dewpoints/cloud cover — but, if clearing (and cold advection) happen fast enough, then Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle will be just as impacted as Louisiana.

The latest HRRR shows what I'm talking about. Look at how the low dewpoint air disappears over Texas ... but makes the move to the Gulf states eastward.


 

Admittedly, I have not been up in the FL Panhandle in several years, so I don’t really know what grows there, and how much this cold snap/snow/sleet will impact things.

Looking at Highway 98 (used to go to Dauphin Island on this route from St. Augustine years ago), last time I was there (and checking google maps tonight), most of the palms look like typical cold hardy 8a/9a type stuff, noting too tropical or sensitive to cold temps/brief snow. I with the warming temps in the coming days, (Thru and Fri in the 40’s F, and nearing 60 F by Sunday) I would think these more cold hardy palms will be fine.

 

[CTX Palm King]

New Braunfels, TX Updates

Tracked Temperatures for Outdoors and Three Palms.

Snowy, Cold, Palm Photos…

[ahosey01]

Well, we held out all day but now temps appear to be falling quickly.  It was 34F at sundown but it is 29F now without any wind and no cloud cover whatsoever with 10 hours to go before sunrise.  Expecting we might hit 24F tonight in Brownsville - possibly lower.  If that turns out, most of my garden will be dead, since most of it is new plantings and has not had more than a growing season to establish.

Plant on!

[Robbertico18]

Finally getting sleet here in Savannah hopefully the sun will melt it all in the morning

[Xenon]

It's 30F already in west Houston at 9 pm. Its going to be a loooong and nerve racking 10 hours 😭 

And it's 22F in McComb, MS... on track to 11F! Not too many palms around here though...a few Sabal palmetto and the occasional Washingtonia mutt and Butia. 

 

[mthteh1916]

7 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

Well, we held out all day but now temps appear to be falling quickly.  It was 34F at sundown but it is 29F now without any wind and no cloud cover whatsoever with 10 hours to go before sunrise.  Expecting we might hit 24F tonight in Brownsville - possibly lower.  If that turns out, most of my garden will be dead, since most of it is new plantings and has not had more than a growing season to establish.

Plant on!

I said that earlier and was told it was not getting anywhere near that. DAmage is coming to the citrus industry down there. This is a very cold outbreak despite lack of  snow cover. 

[mthteh1916]

2 minutes ago, Robbertico18 said:

Finally getting sleet here in Savannah hopefully the sun will melt it all in the morning

your coldest will be tomorrow night. And if there is a lot of snow cover it will get very very cold. 

[mthteh1916]

5 minutes ago, Xenon said:

It's 30F already in west Houston at 9 pm. Its going to be a loooong and nerve racking 10 hours 😭 

And it's 22F in McComb, MS... on track to 11F! Not too many palms around here though...a few Sabal palmetto and the occasional Washingtonia mutt and Butia. 

 

Are there a lot of palms in Houma? Houma is south of New Orleans. their latest NWS forecast is a low of 13F and a high of 31F tomorrow. Queens won't survive that. Dont think many washingtonia will either. not sure about cidp.  lot of dead palms there for sure. 

[mthteh1916]

8 minutes ago, Xenon said:

It's 30F already in west Houston at 9 pm. Its going to be a loooong and nerve racking 10 hours 😭 

And it's 22F in McComb, MS... on track to 11F! Not too many palms around here though...a few Sabal palmetto and the occasional Washingtonia mutt and Butia. 

 

deep south Louisiana seems to be in trouble temp wise. 

[OC2Texaspalmlvr]

On 1/20/2025 at 5:16 PM, ahosey01 said:

This is correct I sold my place in Arizona and wound up in Brownsville on accident.  Glad I did - I'll die here.  Texas is the greatest country in the world. 🤭

Love this comment ! 

T J 

[NMPalmjunky]

7 hours ago, MarcusH said:

Since Jonathan provided some old data from the past I'm curious about the existence about palm trees in the regions along the Gulf of America (? , eh what lol) and states that are connected to those gulf states, 100 plus years ago. What type of palms could be grown( if any) ? I would assume that it all started at the coastal areas, then palms were moved further inland . Any history about it ? I understand that a lot of palms that we see in palmy regions where brought in from other states or even countries. I also assume that Sabal palms were the only one species growing before 19th century along the Gulf Coast.  Just an assumption.  Any data about that ?

I’m not sure about the gulf coast, but I understand that most of the Phoenix Dactylifera palms planted in Las Vegas in the 90s  were shipped in from somewhere in Africa in bulk. Many of the commercial plantings along the Las Vegas strip today are from this era. This made pricing affordable enough that many developments off the strip included mature (30’-50’) palms in their plans. Rumor has it that the original bulk shipment was infested with rats.

[ahosey01]

Okay so for all the weather people on here can you explain this to me ? ....

We were at 36F-37F most of the afternoon, then dropped slowly to 34F at sundown.  Once the sun went down, between 7 and 9, we dropped from 34F to 29F.  There is no wind whatosever, and no cloud cover.

Based on my fairly limited understanding, this would be a radiative event and it would have to continue to drop throughout the night.  After all, there is no cloud cover and no wind.

However, starting at 9, we have now begun to go up in temp and are back at 32F-33F.

How does this happen when there is no cloud cover and no wind?

[Swolte]

Ugh, looks like the teens for me. Already hitting 20F and its only 10 PM... I am afraid to look when I wake up!

I found an electric sock warmer. I am going out at midnight to place them under the cover of my satsuma and young Canariensis.
 

[NMPalmjunky]

5 minutes ago, NMPalmjunky said:

I’m not sure about the gulf coast, but I understand that most of the Phoenix Dactylifera palms planted in Las Vegas in the 90s  were shipped in from somewhere in Africa in bulk. Many of the commercial plantings along the Las Vegas strip today are from this era. This made pricing affordable enough that many developments off the strip included mature (30’-50’) palms in their plans. Rumor has it that the original bulk shipment was infested with rats.

LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Chances are you’ve seen this nasty pest in your neighborhood: rats. In recent years, “roof rats” were brought in on palm or fruit trees, with first sightings reported in the Spanish Trail development in the late ’90s.

https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/las-vegas-valley-experiencing-problems-with-growing-rat-population/
 

[mthteh1916]

22 minutes ago, NMPalmjunky said:

LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Chances are you’ve seen this nasty pest in your neighborhood: rats. In recent years, “roof rats” were brought in on palm or fruit trees, with first sightings reported in the Spanish Trail development in the late ’90s.

https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/las-vegas-valley-experiencing-problems-with-growing-rat-population/
 

have them in broward county here in south FL. they love areca palms and I have loads of those. yuk I hear them scurrying around in them at night. 

[mthteh1916]

30 minutes ago, ahosey01 said:

Okay so for all the weather people on here can you explain this to me ? ....

We were at 36F-37F most of the afternoon, then dropped slowly to 34F at sundown.  Once the sun went down, between 7 and 9, we dropped from 34F to 29F.  There is no wind whatosever, and no cloud cover.

Based on my fairly limited understanding, this would be a radiative event and it would have to continue to drop throughout the night.  After all, there is no cloud cover and no wind.

However, starting at 9, we have now begun to go up in temp and are back at 32F-33F.

How does this happen when there is no cloud cover and no wind?

this is a good thing. they upped the temp forecast for McAllen also to 27F for a low.  

[ahosey01]

If anyone had "McAllen as cold as Amarillo" on their 2025 bingo card give me a holler and you can have my life savings to bet on whatever you want as long as I can keep half your profits.

[NBTX11]

4 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

The winters are so much milder in Europe

No, they aren’t. The average winter temperatures, for example, in San Antonio TX are higher than anywhere on the European continent. The only place close is possibly Seville, Spain, and SATX is still slightly warmer on average. 
 

If you’re talking strictly the 3 days in winter that have the severe arctic blast, I might be inclined to agree with you.  80F/27C is quite common in every months of winter in south central Texas  

San Antonio had a high temperature of 89F/32C as recently as Dec 30th.  Where in Europe has in been 32C within the past 3 weeks?