Will this continue like this forever?

[idontknowhatnametuse]

Ever since 2021 happened my city gets a freeze every year. Before 2021, events like that used to be super rare, they happened once in like 4-8 years. Now it seems like this will keep happening forever nonstop. Have patterns like this one ever happened in the past? Are "nonstop" years of freezes a sign of a future warm period?

[Arecaceus]

Well it looks like everywhere extreme weather events of any kind are becoming more frequent and I guess in winter the polar vortex just becomes more fragile. Currently the whole northern hemisphere looks incredibly warm. Espescially in the normally very cold regions. I recently also read that melting ice and above average temps in the polar regions will cause more precipitation and snow events in many places. But some events are also just regular deviations and there are many many times in history or even in recent decades where extreme weather events came in rows. Since 2021 is only 4 years ago it's hard to tell. Sea temperatures are also very hot with multiple records fallen last year. And don't forget the influence of La Nina and El Nino. Espescially important for North- and Central America. I think weather has just become more unpredictable for everyone.

[Las Palmas Norte]

Weather instability seems to be a part of a much bigger picture than our limited experience.

[flplantguy]

We seem to be in a cold pattern again but with the extremes not so bad. Maybe it flips again and the next cold pattern is not cold at all.  As others stated most areas are warm so its not as bad as it could be.

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, flplantguy said:

We seem to be in a cold pattern again but with the extremes not so bad. Maybe it flips again and the next cold pattern is not cold at all.  As others stated most areas are warm so its not as bad as it could be.

Well it's not warm in Texas...3 out of the last 4 winters belong in the top 4 seasons with the coldest winter minimums of the last 35 years.

Many areas in Florida are having one of their longest mild streaks ever in recorded history i.e Jacksonville Beach hasn't been below 25F in 11 years and Gainesville hasn't seen below 20F in 14 years. Forgive me but I don't see a cold pattern for the south Atlantic region 😝

Oh well our (literal) time in the sun will come one day lol 

[KPoff]

I have read some articles that tried to link global warming to causing instability to the polar vortex. They said the instability would lead to the possibility of more artic fronts where they aren’t supposed to be. I’m not a climatologist and won’t claim to be so I’m not going to argue for or against that case. Could be fear mongering, but could be linked to data. I live in west Texas and other than 2021, nothing seems out of the ordinary of what we normally experience at least once every winter, if not a few times or we would be zone 9. Anyways, food for thought in an ever changing world.

[Arecaceus]

10 minutes ago, KPoff said:

I have read some articles that tried to link global warming to causing instability to the polar vortex. They said the instability would lead to the possibility of more artic fronts where they aren’t supposed to be. I’m not a climatologist and won’t claim to be so I’m not going to argue for or against that case. Could be fear mongering, but could be linked to data. I live in west Texas and other than 2021, nothing seems out of the ordinary of what we normally experience at least once every winter, if not a few times or we would be zone 9. Anyways, food for thought in an ever changing world.

Yes I think a warming planet would plausibly be able to weaken the polar vortex or disrupt it at least. But the thing is the actual scientists (at least here in Europe) usually don't link single events directly to global warming because weather and climate are so complex that proving a particular event to be caused by it is difficult. Usually they only say things like "these events could become more frequent" or "it's very likely that...". They run lots of studies and models to find out the effects of it but it's not easy. Only recently after decades of talk of global warming (again at least here) they start to officially link certain extremes to the effects of global warming. But it's rare. Projections are hard to make even for the scientists and sudden stratospheric warming or an instable vortex can also occur normally at all times.

[flplantguy]

My reference was to the planet overall, not the US. We get that nice pipeline of cold so it doesnt matter as much here. But other places dont have that and have greater change so they feel different. They also have larger urban areas than last century too and high density, so more urban heating. Not all of it is explained by that, but its a moot point when the polar vortex drops the arctic down literally on top of us.

[NBTX11]

Relax. 
 

This is nothing like 2021. The national weather service is predicting lows of 26F for San Antonio Mon- Wed of next week. I go with the NWS and not random weather apps. If that were to happen and we got nothing colder, it would still be a 9b winter. 
 

Even if they’re 5 or 6 degrees off it’s still an average winter of a low 9a. I get why y’all are scared coming off extreme winters but as of now this is run of the mill average winter minimum lows. We’re still on pace for a 9a winter, possibly 9b if it stays at the NWS predictions. Robusta will sail through with some bronzing and queen palms will slide through with some damage. 
 

Could it be 10 degrees colder than predicted? Sure, but right now the NWS forecasts aren't  showing that. 

[NBTX11]

The latest forecasted lows from National weather service. 

[Xenon]

I don't think anyone here is imagining 2021. But just 1 single "mild" winter....even just 1 rounded numerical degree above average (let alone a standard deviation above the mean) would really help boost morale. Not ever having a back to back season for some things to really thrive and establish sucks. 

Where's the upside to 3 out of the last 4 annual winter minimums falling anywhere between 8-10+ degrees below average? Even the 4th was below average. Yes, the zone 9 palms will be fine but if this forecast holds it still feels ridiculous/cursed. Especially with the potential for ice. 

Ok end rant. Hopefully the forecast improves. If not, then next winter will be the mild winter. For the love of plants please let there be just one mild winter LOL.  Don't stop believing and plant more palms!  😊🌴🌴