Will this continue like this forever?

[idontknowhatnametuse]

Ever since 2021 happened my city gets a freeze every year. Before 2021, events like that used to be super rare, they happened once in like 4-8 years. Now it seems like this will keep happening forever nonstop. Have patterns like this one ever happened in the past? Are "nonstop" years of freezes a sign of a future warm period?

[Arecaceus]

Well it looks like everywhere extreme weather events of any kind are becoming more frequent and I guess in winter the polar vortex just becomes more fragile. Currently the whole northern hemisphere looks incredibly warm. Espescially in the normally very cold regions. I recently also read that melting ice and above average temps in the polar regions will cause more precipitation and snow events in many places. But some events are also just regular deviations and there are many many times in history or even in recent decades where extreme weather events came in rows. Since 2021 is only 4 years ago it's hard to tell. Sea temperatures are also very hot with multiple records fallen last year. And don't forget the influence of La Nina and El Nino. Espescially important for North- and Central America. I think weather has just become more unpredictable for everyone.

[Las Palmas Norte]

Weather instability seems to be a part of a much bigger picture than our limited experience.

[flplantguy]

We seem to be in a cold pattern again but with the extremes not so bad. Maybe it flips again and the next cold pattern is not cold at all.  As others stated most areas are warm so its not as bad as it could be.

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, flplantguy said:

We seem to be in a cold pattern again but with the extremes not so bad. Maybe it flips again and the next cold pattern is not cold at all.  As others stated most areas are warm so its not as bad as it could be.

Well it's not warm in Texas...3 out of the last 4 winters belong in the top 4 seasons with the coldest winter minimums of the last 35 years.

Many areas in Florida are having one of their longest mild streaks ever in recorded history i.e Jacksonville Beach hasn't been below 25F in 11 years and Gainesville hasn't seen below 20F in 14 years. Forgive me but I don't see a cold pattern for the south Atlantic region 😝

Oh well our (literal) time in the sun will come one day lol 

[KPoff]

I have read some articles that tried to link global warming to causing instability to the polar vortex. They said the instability would lead to the possibility of more artic fronts where they aren’t supposed to be. I’m not a climatologist and won’t claim to be so I’m not going to argue for or against that case. Could be fear mongering, but could be linked to data. I live in west Texas and other than 2021, nothing seems out of the ordinary of what we normally experience at least once every winter, if not a few times or we would be zone 9. Anyways, food for thought in an ever changing world.

[Arecaceus]

10 minutes ago, KPoff said:

I have read some articles that tried to link global warming to causing instability to the polar vortex. They said the instability would lead to the possibility of more artic fronts where they aren’t supposed to be. I’m not a climatologist and won’t claim to be so I’m not going to argue for or against that case. Could be fear mongering, but could be linked to data. I live in west Texas and other than 2021, nothing seems out of the ordinary of what we normally experience at least once every winter, if not a few times or we would be zone 9. Anyways, food for thought in an ever changing world.

Yes I think a warming planet would plausibly be able to weaken the polar vortex or disrupt it at least. But the thing is the actual scientists (at least here in Europe) usually don't link single events directly to global warming because weather and climate are so complex that proving a particular event to be caused by it is difficult. Usually they only say things like "these events could become more frequent" or "it's very likely that...". They run lots of studies and models to find out the effects of it but it's not easy. Only recently after decades of talk of global warming (again at least here) they start to officially link certain extremes to the effects of global warming. But it's rare. Projections are hard to make even for the scientists and sudden stratospheric warming or an instable vortex can also occur normally at all times.

[flplantguy]

My reference was to the planet overall, not the US. We get that nice pipeline of cold so it doesnt matter as much here. But other places dont have that and have greater change so they feel different. They also have larger urban areas than last century too and high density, so more urban heating. Not all of it is explained by that, but its a moot point when the polar vortex drops the arctic down literally on top of us.

[NBTX11]

Relax. 
 

This is nothing like 2021. The national weather service is predicting lows of 26F for San Antonio Mon- Wed of next week. I go with the NWS and not random weather apps. If that were to happen and we got nothing colder, it would still be a 9b winter. 
 

Even if they’re 5 or 6 degrees off it’s still an average winter of a low 9a. I get why y’all are scared coming off extreme winters but as of now this is run of the mill average winter minimum lows. We’re still on pace for a 9a winter, possibly 9b if it stays at the NWS predictions. Robusta will sail through with some bronzing and queen palms will slide through with some damage. 
 

Could it be 10 degrees colder than predicted? Sure, but right now the NWS forecasts aren't  showing that. 

[NBTX11]

The latest forecasted lows from National weather service. 

[Xenon]

I don't think anyone here is imagining 2021. But just 1 single "mild" winter....even just 1 rounded numerical degree above average (let alone a standard deviation above the mean) would really help boost morale. Not ever having a back to back season for some things to really thrive and establish sucks. 

Where's the upside to 3 out of the last 4 annual winter minimums falling anywhere between 8-10+ degrees below average? Even the 4th was below average. Yes, the zone 9 palms will be fine but if this forecast holds it still feels ridiculous/cursed. Especially with the potential for ice. 

Ok end rant. Hopefully the forecast improves. If not, then next winter will be the mild winter. For the love of plants please let there be just one mild winter LOL.  Don't stop believing and plant more palms!  😊🌴🌴

 

[MarcusH]

I heard planet earth is turning into ice 😄👌

[ChrisA]

Hope the trend continues and this arctic air doesn’t make its way so far south. Looks like now Monterrey might get down to about 30F for a low. That’s s big improvement from the few nights of 25F that were showing on the forecast earlier.  

[NC_Palms]

As the arctic warms due to climate change, there is more energy there. And this energy needs to go somewhere, so it is being released more often, at longer periods into the temperate and subtropical latitudes. 

Longer lasting, colder polar vortexes are becoming more and more common. It might look like your city has warmed on average when looking at the USDA maps, but it means nothing if everything you’re growing will be wiped out every 5 years. 

 

[KPoff]

14 hours ago, NC_Palms said:

As the arctic warms due to climate change, there is more energy there. And this energy needs to go somewhere, so it is being released more often, at longer periods into the temperate and subtropical latitudes. 

Longer lasting, colder polar vortexes are becoming more and more common. It might look like your city has warmed on average when looking at the USDA maps, but it means nothing if everything you’re growing will be wiped out every 5 years. 

 

My concern as well. Pretty soon Texas will be zone 6 and I can only grow needle palms and sabal minors with protection.

[Phoenikakias]

On 1/14/2025 at 7:34 PM, Arecaceus said:

Well it looks like everywhere extreme weather events of any kind are becoming more frequent and I guess in winter the polar vortex just becomes more fragile. Currently the whole northern hemisphere looks incredibly warm. Espescially in the normally very cold regions. I recently also read that melting ice and above average temps in the polar regions will cause more precipitation and snow events in many places. But some events are also just regular deviations and there are many many times in history or even in recent decades where extreme weather events came in rows. Since 2021 is only 4 years ago it's hard to tell. Sea temperatures are also very hot with multiple records fallen last year. And don't forget the influence of La Nina and El Nino. Espescially important for North- and Central America. I think weather has just become more unpredictable for everyone.

In Athens it snowed three consecutive years, 21,22 and 23. Had never seen a similar sequence before in my life.  Fortunately temps remained slightly above zero at least in the southern parts of the wider area, so snow was less and thawed on same day, but in the northern parts of the city and in northerly oriented buildings it was much more and remained settled for several days having turned to ice. I had in the end to use water in order get rid of it in my balcony.

[flplantguy]

The extremes will continue, but in a different way than before. It will look less intense comparing to the 30 year averages, but using the baseline from pre 1900 it will be very different.  A new super cold night would be routine back then, and the average coldest night similar but last far less time. My family in NM had winter really start after new years, and will hit their normal zone 7 designation with this event, but winter overall is shorter and less intense. Only one night at zone 7 not two or three, and 8 degrees instead of 4. Subtle, but may save dormant tubers that normally die, etc.  this winter in florida has been chilly, but without the nasty extremes of similar years like 85 and 77.  Even if this coming event pans out like models show its nothing like those events, which dont hold a candle to Feb. 1899.  There are tales of older cold events just as intense as 1899 also (1835 for example), so it was a periodic thing that has started shifting its baseline. These past few events would be simiar to 2021, and that one would have been worse if you could believe that.  It was not the all time record setter in most places further south, which is where the atmosphere changes are effecting cold first and foremost. Look at miami in 2022 vs 1989, very different but up north both were nasty. Part of this effect is the chance and luck of fluid dynamics, so not all can be attributes to changes, but its enough to make you go hmmm🤔.

[Chester B]

I’ve recently learned about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and they think it might be shutting down. It has in the past. If that happens it’s horrible news for the UK and Europe. They’ll experience the temps we do at each latitude here in NAM. Apparently it will make things hotter in parts of NAM too. Crazy stuff it happens. 

[Banana Belt]

16 hours ago, Chester B said:

I’ve recently learned about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and they think it might be shutting down. It has in the past. If that happens it’s horrible news for the UK and Europe. They’ll experience the temps we do at each latitude here in NAM. Apparently it will make things hotter in parts of NAM too. Crazy stuff it happens. 

This early morning just before sunrise we had 31.5 F as low for about 1 hour.  That is the lowest low for last couple years.  Good frost on the tall grass but that is about it.  I have been looking for Juania Australis plants, but as you said very hard to find.  Seeds, perhaps is only way for sure providing I know how to sprout them.  Our last rain was couple weeks ago with sun everyday since, yet still the ground is saturated.  January sun is low angle at noon, but afternoon reflection off the ocean gives extra boost to upper 50's or low 60's.  We are getting our summer winter this January which is nice but with low sun and short days not much grows except for grass. https://www.suncalc.org/#/42.0431,-124.271,12/2025.01.20/23:02/1/1

[Banana Belt]

On 1/14/2025 at 9:39 AM, Las Palmas Norte said:

Weather instability seems to be a part of a much bigger picture than our limited experience.

Limited experience is directly proportional to life span.  I remember my grandmother talking about the cold snaps in Portland, Oregon a century ago where the Columbia River froze over and people could drive their Model A's across the ice from Portland to Vancouver for weeks. 

Just imagine a mythical nation or tribe of people who had average life spans of 500 years, what would they say about "Climate Change"?  Dare to say it would be very different from us who live less than 100 years.  Compare that to another nation of people who live 5,000 years on average and what would they have to tell all of us especially the so called leaders and "experts" of today.  If one were to extend this out to even further years of lifespan and their memories of course there is climate change, once every day between day and night, once every year between summer and winter, so on to so on.  It is the perspective of time and the memories collected during ones life that reflects what is normal or not. 

[NMPalmjunky]

On 1/17/2025 at 5:41 PM, Chester B said:

I’ve recently learned about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and they think it might be shutting down. It has in the past. If that happens it’s horrible news for the UK and Europe. They’ll experience the temps we do at each latitude here in NAM. Apparently it will make things hotter in parts of NAM too. Crazy stuff it happens. 

Interesting read
https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/what-would-happen-if-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc-collapses-how-likely

[Arecaceus]

On 1/18/2025 at 1:41 AM, Chester B said:

I’ve recently learned about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and they think it might be shutting down. It has in the past. If that happens it’s horrible news for the UK and Europe. They’ll experience the temps we do at each latitude here in NAM. Apparently it will make things hotter in parts of NAM too. Crazy stuff it happens. 

Yes this is a frequent discussion over here in Europe. So far many predictions (probably most) made about global warming have turned out wrong. Sometimes the events occur much faster than anticipated, sometimes events that should've appeared haven't by now and there are events and effects showing no one saw coming. The collapse of AMOC is also a complex topic because all models show different outcomes in the long run. I really hope it won't collapse soon not just because of the chance of colder temps in Europe but because the global effects of something like this would be crazy and rather unpredictable. We've already seen record high ocean temperatures everywhere and a breakdown of AMOC in some scenarios could also increase this BY A LOT. We shouldn't forget that palm growing is a minor issue when it starts to get hard to live in many places and the food chain collapses. Sounds a bit dramatic but ocean currents are very vital organs of our current planet.