UK Spring/Summer 2025 and wildfire season

[UK_Palms]

The first half of March is done and it has been VERY dry here. I have registered 0.8mm / 0.03 inches of rain so far this month, but many places have been even drier. Some places as little as 0.1mm / 0.003 inches. Temperatures have been a bit below average with some rather chilly nights due to all the clear skies, hence all the sunny dry weather this month...

 

On the Environmental Agency network, there are multiple stations in Devon and Somerset that have only recorded 0.1mm / 0.003 inches of rain this month so far. Presumably that is the driest first half of a March on record for these places, since this area isn't even generally renowned as being a 'dry' part of southern England either (unlike parts of Sussex, Kent, Essex etc in the southeast of England. As you can see the area has multiple EA rainfall gauges in the <1mm region up to 15/03/2025...

 

First 15 days of March... (official Met stations)...

Hurn (Bournemouth) - 0.4mm / 0.01 inches

Church Lawford - 0.4mm / 0.01 inches

Middle Wallop - 0.6mm / 0.02 inches

Yeovilton - 0.6mm / 0.02 inches

Manston - 0.8mm / 0.03 inches

Odiham - 0.8mm / 0.03 inches

Shoreham - 1.0mm / 0.04 inches

Larkhill - 1.0mm / 0.04 inches

Boscombe Down - 1.2mm / 0.05 inches

London Heathrow - 1.2mm / 0.05 inches

 

Consequently the wildfires have returned with some bad ones in recent days and weeks...

 

12 separate fire stations had to respond to the wildfire at Canford Heath earlier this week, which was likely arson...

 

 

Spring has started off pretty chilly and dry with abundant clear skies and sunshine. Some milder temperatures are returning next week. We are unlikely to see any rain until Friday 21st at least. Even then it doesn't look like it will be much, if anything.

 

Sunshine hours are also going to be at record levels for the first 3 weeks of March, come next weekend...

[UK_Palms]

Some short term upgrades to the temperatures later this week. Potentially 21-22C in London on Thursday now.

The dry spell continues here. Many places remain on less than 1mm / 0.03 inches of rainfall this month.

The Mourne Mountains are on fire tonight in Northern Ireland.

 

Wales has been hit as well…

The Met Office station at Bournemouth airport (Hurn) has recorded 0.9% of its average monthly rainfall, when it should be at around 55-60% by now (first half of March is typically wetter)…

 

Rainfall totals for the past 20-21 days (3 weeks) in parts of Devon are still 0.1mm / 0.004 inches. There won’t be any rain for another 5-6 days at least really now. There will probably be a lot of fires later this week with the warmer temperatures.

 

[ChrisA]

That’s frightening to see so much drought there.  I’m afraid this climate change is causing many of the droughts being seen all over the world. While some get a deluge others do not get a drop.  
 

I hope you get some good rains soon and that when they eventually come it’s not 4 months’ worth in 5 hours…

 

[Foxpalms]

  On 3/20/2025 at 2:10 AM, ChrisA said:

That’s frightening to see so much drought there.  I’m afraid this climate change is causing many of the droughts being seen all over the world. While some get a deluge others do not get a drop.  
 

I hope you get some good rains soon and that when they eventually come it’s not 4 months’ worth in 5 hours…

 

Expand  

We have some rain forecasted next week though only 12mm of rain is forecasted for the rest of March.  The ground is very dry here however since it's only March and temps aren't too warm most days most plants won't be affected.  Those heavy rainfall type events luckily are uncommon here.

[UK_Palms]

Maximum of 21-22C yesterday here.

Still no rain, yet. Many areas have basically gone 3-4 weeks now without any measurable precipitation. This graphic only shows up to the 17th.

Severe fires are breaking out everywhere. Provisionally it looks like around 300-400 separate wildfires this week alone.

Saharan sand dust imports incoming today as well. That is a very heavy dust load in the atmosphere above England…

 

Some cooler temperatures and maybe a bit of rain over the next 7-10 days. Going into April I suspect the situation with the fires will remain pretty volatile.

[UK_Palms]

Couldn't really ask for better conditions in late March - early April here. Plenty of sunshine on offer and 20C+ temps possible again from Sunday onwards. Even the next 2 days are still going to be 15-16C and sunny, which is decent enough. This spring has had some cold nights, especially early on (coldest start to a March and spring since 2018), but overall it has been a pretty decent spring. Dry, sunny and mild, by day at least. Just chilly nights under clear skies.

 

Still only 2.4mm / 0.09 inches of rainfall at St James Park in London this month...

 

The latest 16 day rainfall forecast shows 1mm of accumulated precipitation over the next 16 days. That would tip us firmly into the danger zone properly. That would be about 3mm / 0.1 inches across 6 weeks for London if that verifies and surely result in the driest first half of a spring on record for London and where I am here. I have only had 1.9mm so far this month.

 

I'll update again on April 1st...

 

Bad fire near Manchester a few days back...

 

Littleborough tonight...

[Chester B]

Seems like if they brought back the extirpated animals, primarily the predators these grass/brush fires just wouldn't be happening.  All those deer both native and introduced are a much bigger problem than most people realize.  

I can hear the farmers whining already...  Even though most of us in other parts of the world grew up with Apex predators and the local farmers too.  Dogs kill more livestock than any other animal.

[UK_Palms]

  On 3/28/2025 at 3:39 AM, Chester B said:

Seems like if they brought back the extirpated animals, primarily the predators these grass/brush fires just wouldn't be happening.  All those deer both native and introduced are a much bigger problem than most people realize.  

I can hear the farmers whining already...  Even though most of us in other parts of the world grew up with Apex predators and the local farmers too.  Dogs kill more livestock than any other animal.

Expand  

Heathland, Moors and gorse are poorly managed in most areas with insufficient amounts of controlled burns to mitigate against this. The previous two winters and springs have been pretty wet, so I think those managing it have relaxed and got complacent again. The winter just gone was on the dry side and this spring has started off exceptionally dry, hence all the fires. They need to reintroduce goats to many areas to help consume the fuel availability. I’m not sure how effective the reintroduction of larger predators will be, but it must have some benefit. Come summer this will be a massive problem as that is when properties come under threat from the flames.

Looks like the big moorland fire last night at Littleborough was brought under control this morning with helicopters…

The next 10-14 days look primed for more wildfire activity with wall to wall sunshine and warmish temps. This is probably going to be the driest first half of a spring on record for London and southern England.

[Chester B]

  On 3/28/2025 at 12:47 PM, UK_Palms said:

I’m not sure how effective the reintroduction of larger predators will be, but it must have some benefit.

Expand  

Highly effective, they are keystone species, you can look that up.  The effects on the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park is a great example and lots of information out there to be read.  By having animals like wolves it reduces the number of grazing animals and keeps them on the move so forests and riparian zones and other environments are able to have good recruitment and survival of many of the native plants and trees. These plants never have the chance to grow up due to grazing and you end up with a near monoculture. The UK is essentially a desert with small fragmented pockets of habitat, it is nowhere near being in a natural state.  Over there the movement is called rewilding, there are many organizations, scientists working on it.  Some good content on Youtube as well.  I like this channel https://www.youtube.com/@LeaveCurious

 

[Foxpalms]

  On 3/28/2025 at 2:51 PM, Chester B said:

Highly effective, they are keystone species, you can look that up.  The effects on the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park is a great example and lots of information out there to be read.  By having animals like wolves it reduces the number of grazing animals and keeps them on the move so forests and riparian zones and other environments are able to have good recruitment and survival of many of the native plants and trees. These plants never have the chance to grow up due to grazing and you end up with a near monoculture. The UK is essentially a desert with small fragmented pockets of habitat, it is nowhere near being in a natural state.  Over there the movement is called rewilding, there are many organizations, scientists working on it.  Some good content on Youtube as well.  I like this channel https://www.youtube.com/@LeaveCurious

 

Expand  

Adding apex predators in most of southern England (mainly the south east) likely won't be possible. So with the hotter drier summers especially here in the south east and with London's urban heat island makes it even worse. Is that a lot of the native trees cannot properly cope with the droughts and heat we get now. Likely not as much of an issue further North or West, however here I notice a lot of the native trees start loosing their leaves during the summer and start browning. Which makes the surrounding soil drier and heat up even faster adding to it even more.  Personally I think in areas where this is more of an issue, such as here, mixing native trees with non native evergreen trees will help to keep the ground slightly cooler and wetter. The Mediterranean zone trees and plants seem to thrive here and don't loose their leaves as they are drought tolerant.  They could be used to help assist the native trees to restore forests. Though in the UK there seems to be a hyper focus on only native flora, which just isn't working. 

Reintroduction of wolves would be great up in the Scottish Highlands.

[Tyrone]

Shocking to see the drought and fires in the UK. The UK is just not designed for this. 
 

You can see a difference in the way the UK deals with fires and here in Australia where fire is commonplace. In Australia, firebreaks on fields are compulsory. You will be fined if you don’t have them in place by the required date. Fire units have to be on site when harvesting. The equipment to fight a bush fire is vastly different to the equipment used to fight a building fire. I’ve noticed that urban pumps are attending bushfires in the UK because that’s all that’s available. A ladder is of no use in a bushfire. Rural pumps have much better capacity to hold water. The UK could do with more light tankers. Here they are all on Toyota Landcruisers but over there they would use Landrovers. They can quickly get onto a fire and put it out quicker than an urban pump and 50m of hose. 

[UK_Palms]

  On 3/30/2025 at 10:54 PM, Tyrone said:

Shocking to see the drought and fires in the UK. The UK is just not designed for this. 
 

You can see a difference in the way the UK deals with fires and here in Australia where fire is commonplace. In Australia, firebreaks on fields are compulsory. You will be fined if you don’t have them in place by the required date. Fire units have to be on site when harvesting. The equipment to fight a bush fire is vastly different to the equipment used to fight a building fire. I’ve noticed that urban pumps are attending bushfires in the UK because that’s all that’s available. A ladder is of no use in a bushfire. Rural pumps have much better capacity to hold water. The UK could do with more light tankers. Here they are all on Toyota Landcruisers but over there they would use Landrovers. They can quickly get onto a fire and put it out quicker than an urban pump and 50m of hose. 

Expand  

I agree 100% with everything you say. It seems fire crews are still playing catch up, despite having a number of widespread and severe incidents in recent years. Back 30-40 years ago, you used to get wildfires still but only really in the middle of summer during hot, dry spells, like in 1976, 1983, 1995 etc. Now they seem to be an issue for half the year from February - October, especially when dry and warm. They can happen any time of year, and have historically, but the frequency and severity has trebled during the warmer, drier months. I still think they need water bomber aircraft.

It is actually trending drier and drier here in the forecast models. Not that it can really get much drier than it has already been the past 4-5 weeks. But it looks like no rain for the next 2 weeks now.

St James Park in London will finish the month on 2.6mm / 0.1 inches of rainfall. If the models are to believed it will be about 7 weeks on 0.1 inches of rainfall for me here and the London area, from the last week of February until mid-April at least.

I can see Frampton has only picked up 1.8mm / 0.07 inches of rainfall this month. Probably the driest Met Office or Environmental Agency rain gauge on the network and 0.8mm less than St James Park even. That location will finish on 1.8mm as well. Some places are going to have heir driest and sunniest March on record.

 

Just on a side note, ‘winter’ does appear to have a sting in its tail possibly this year. We’ve had weeks on end of spring, but winter may rear its ugly head again in 10-14 days time, especially in Central Europe. That will need watching. I think we are 50:50 in regards to a cold, arctic, northerly plunge coming around mid-April. The chart below is almost record breaking low temps however for that late on in the year. Unlikely to verify though, nonetheless.

[Tyrone]

Yes, water bombers would be a good option for bushfires in the UK. A few strategic airfields across the UK could be set up for that purpose and could reach virtually any bushfire quickly in the UK as it’s small enough and planes are much faster than land based vehicles. This sort of issue appears to be a yearly occurrence now so something vastly different needs to be done. The old ways don’t work that well. 
 

I was thinking of the farmers too in this drought. Will there be a grain harvest this year? The last spring rains are so important to finish a crop off, but it’s sounding like they didn’t happen this year. So now your wheat, barley, and oats are basically just highly flammable low grade animal feed. 

[UK_Palms]

Rinse and repeat again here with about 10 new fires since I last replied to you @Tyrone

 

Saw this chart for March rainfall earlier. The AEMET station in the centre of Madrid has had 230mm of rainfall. The Met station in the centre of London, just 2.4mm.

[Foxpalms]

Bone dry.  And those temps, mainly the night time temps here, tend to be higher than what weather online shows typically.  The sun is fairly potent as well now 44 degrees UV index around a 5.

The April and May forecast suggests slightly above average conditions for the UK. June slightly above average, July above average and August significantly above average. And overall drier than average conditions. We will see.

[UK_Palms]

  On 4/2/2025 at 1:34 PM, Foxpalms said:

Bone dry.  And those temps, mainly the night time temps here, tend to be higher than what weather online shows typically.  The sun is fairly potent as well now 44 degrees UV index around a 5.

The April and May forecast suggests slightly above average conditions for the UK. June slightly above average, July above average and August significantly above average. And overall drier than average conditions. We will see.

Expand  

This is the accumulated rainfall out to the 18th April. Nothing for many areas.

We’re going to have major fire problems in the southeast as of tomorrow with temps back in the 20’s C again…

 

Some really bad fires last night and today in Wales and Dorset. This is the closest the flames have come to impacting houses. They have reached people’s gardens. If this was June/July it would be a different story…

This is tonight…

 

The fire front is gigantic in Preseli. These are the latest images.

 

Scotland has got its own problems… they are battling fires tonight as well and have an extreme fire warning in place in the coming days. Looks like they have given up trying to control the Sterling fire and will be using helicopters at first light tomorrow, if it doesn’t burn out.

 

 

Provisional data shows around 1,800 separate wildfires since March 1st in the UK now, so across 4-5 weeks. That number may be over 2,000 separate fires however once fully accounted. Wales had 120 in one single day last week. About 40 today as well.

As @Tyrone mentioned, the equipment being used to tackle the fires is crap. Relying on fire engines to fight 20 foot tall bushfires. There must have been over 50 new fires since I last spoke with him 2 days ago. Houses have almost been impacted as well. Friday and Saturday will be an absolute nightmare.

[UK_Palms]

Serious fires over the past 24 hours. Upton Heath absolutely decimated in the early hours of Thursday. This is definitely the worst spate of fires since July 2022…

Vehicles burnt to smithereens in the Wales fire…

Multiple roads shut on Thursday night in Ireland and Scotland…

Only a 21C / 70F max here on Thursday, but expecting it to be a bit warmer today. Maybe 23-24C / 75F. It’s not the temperatures that are the issue though, it’s the lack of rainfall. 1.9mm / 0.08 inches over the past 40 days for me here now.

[UK_Palms]

24C / 75F here yesterday…

Looks like the Galloway Forest fire has spread dramatically…

 

Last nights fires…

 

Wicklow fire this evening with 15 pumps and 170 firefighters. Evacuations of properties are underway tonight…

There is a new fire in Cornwall tonight. I am hearing they are using helicopters during the night to drop water as it is out of control…

Wales engulfed in flames still..

Next week is going to be rough, especially the weekend with it back in the 20’s C again… and no rain!!

[UK_Palms]

They’re not mucking about anymore. Multiple helicopters attacking the fires in Scotland. A new big fire started near Ullapool with 4 helicopters put on it. Another 2 helicopters on the Galloway Forest fire and multiple helicopters on the Northern Ireland fires.

 

Fire crews did very well to contain the Garry forest fire earlier today, since it looked very bad at one point…

 

Multiple fires ranging across Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland this evening. Helicopters on the scene at Barnesmore and Kerry Head…

 

5-6 separate fires over Scotland and Northern Ireland are visible from space this evening…

 

Getting into the thick of it…

Things aren’t exactly under control tonight…

 

 

They’re just allowing the Bloody Bridge fire to burn into the night due to lack of resources and dangerous terrain. Helicopters and wildfire crews already deployed at other locations such as the Barnesmore fire, which is worsening by the minute.

 

This will get a lot worse before it gets any better. The fires will peak next weekend as it goes back into the 20’s C again. At that point, London St James Park will be nearing 7-8 weeks on 2.6mm / 0.1 inches of rainfall. More Saharan sand coming on Fri/Sat as well…